And They’re Off . . .
Ready or not, American voters will begin the process of choosing a new president in just two weeks. The Iowa caucuses are Jan. 24, followed eight days later by the first primary election, in New Hampshire. Then the presidential primary season goes into overdrive, careening toward a probable climax on Tuesday, March 7, when California, New York, Ohio and a dozen other states hold primaries.
This early crush of primary elections is chaotic and deplorable, but we’re stuck with it for now. The best California voters can do is to learn all they can about the candidates and prepare to cast as educated a vote as possible.
This will be the first presidential contest since California adopted the open primary, meaning voters can cast ballots across party lines. They can choose from a list of 22 candidates of the seven recognized political parties. The primary will allocate delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions this summer and provide a test of the relative strengths of the leading major party contenders. Republican Gov. George W. Bush of Texas and Democratic Vice President Al Gore hold strong leads in the most recent polls in California.
That could change if the major challengers, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona or Democratic former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, score early breakthroughs, particularly in New Hampshire. McCain and Bush are neck and neck there, as are Bradley and Gore. New Hampshire upsets--or failures to come up to expectations--have dramatically reordered presidential horse races in the past. Can that happen again, with so many other primaries coming so soon afterward? Many experts think not.
How can California voters prepare themselves? The candidates have received extensive coverage, and both Democrats and Republicans have clashed in debates--five in just the past week. The six Republican candidates go at it again this evening (4 p.m. Pacific time) in Grand Rapids, Mich.
As the first voting approaches, the candidates have engaged each other sharply on the issues--primarily health care and education among the Democrats and tax cuts and campaign finance reform among the Republicans. The debates have been carried on cable channels, but it’s not likely many California voters paid much attention during the holiday season. More campaign forums will be held as the voting in California approaches, including Democratic and GOP matchups sponsored by The Times in the first week of March. Otherwise, the California campaign will be largely a shootout between 30-second television ads.
As important as positions on issues are, intangibles also play a role in voting. One issue difficult to measure is how badly Gore’s association with President Clinton might hurt him.
Veteran columnist Jack Germond writes in a just-published book that after more than 40 years of covering politics, he still doesn’t know what qualities make a good president. Germond adds: “The fatal flaw in the sorting of candidates by issues is that it is almost impossible to anticipate which issues will confront a president. . . . “
Still, the rigorous primary schedule provides a test of the candidates. The system is far from perfect, especially with the compacted primary schedule this year. But as often as not, it produces the best possible result.
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