Tax Relief Likely to Vanish in Gulf Between GOP, Clinton : Congress: A White House veto of $792-billion proposal would put an end to further efforts this year, Republican leaders say. Others favor compromise.

WASHINGTON —  Despite the monthlong Republican push to build public support for the party’s big tax cut bill, prospects are growing dimmer than ever that any tax relief actually will become law this year.

Faced with a certain presidential veto of their $792-billion tax cut proposal, many GOP leaders are taking a tough take-it-or-leave-it stance. They are warning the White House that a veto would mark the end of this year’s tax cut debate.

“If [President Clinton] were to veto the bill, that would pretty well kill it for this year,” House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) said Thursday.

But even among themselves, Republicans are having a hard time coming to agreement on what strategy to pursue after Clinton vetoes the tax bill that cleared Congress in early August and will be sent to him next week. Some GOP lawmakers, wary of coming up empty-handed on their party’s signature issue, want their leaders to respond to Clinton’s veto by passing legislation that draws on the most popular elements of their 10-year plan--such as elimination of the so-called marriage penalty or of inheritance taxes.

But these lawmakers acknowledge that procedural hurdles in the Senate may make it hard for Congress to write smaller, more focused tax legislation at this late stage in the year.

“With the strategy of pursuing one big enchilada, we missed an opportunity to have a side dish of tacos,” said Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.). “The taxpayer ends up with an empty plate instead of a decent meal.”

Clinton on Thursday reiterated his plan to veto the $792-billion measure. He also put the onus for reaching a compromise squarely on the Republicans.

“We can have an agreement, but it is up to them,” he said at a news conference outside the Oval Office. “They know good and well I’m not going to sign [the GOP] bill. It’s wrong for America. It’s bad for the economy. . . . The question is whether we’re going to meet and work together--my door is open--and I hope we will.”

Even if Republicans sit tight on tax cuts after Clinton’s veto, the issue may resurface this fall when Congress negotiates the final form of annual spending bills and other fiscal issues with the administration. A new tax cut initiative also could surface as part of a Republican response to Democrats’ efforts to increase the minimum wage.

Still, recent developments have boded ill for those who had hoped that all the talk about tax relief would produce deeds, not just words.

For one thing, the big Republican push to promote their tax cut--through town meetings, ads and other publicity efforts during their August recess--failed to generate the political pressure the GOP hoped might cause Clinton to rethink his veto pledge. Public opinion polls and anecdotal evidence suggest that people want to have a tax cut, but most don’t seem to feel very intensely about the subject.

“There’s no question there is popular support,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-Va.), chairman of the Republicans’ congressional campaign committee. “But is the intensity there? It does not appear to be.”

And within the GOP, the constituency for responding to Clinton’s veto with a second, more modest tax cut plan has been dwindling.

Several moderate Republicans were not crazy about the party’s huge tax cut proposal in the first place. Many found, when they went home for the summer, that their constituents cared more about reducing the national debt than cutting taxes.

“I didn’t find people clamoring for tax cuts,” said Rep. Steven T. Kuykendall (R-Rancho Palos Verdes), who held 10 town hall meetings in his district during the recess.

What’s more, Republican leaders are wary of engaging in budget summitry with Clinton because the setting often has given him the upper hand. After a meeting with other House GOP leaders Thursday, Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) said the consensus was to resist a deal with Clinton that linked tax cuts to higher spending.

Resistance to another round of tax legislation is particularly strong in the Senate, where, for arcane parliamentary reasons, a second tax bill would be subject to a variety of delaying tactics by Democrats.

The lack of momentum for a grand budget compromise also reflects “Clinton fatigue” among GOP lawmakers as his presidency draws to a close, some Republicans say.

Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) insisted that Clinton--who has said he would accept no tax cut exceeding $300 billion--looms as the major obstacle to any hope of a compromise.

“I have not seen any indication that the president wants to work with us,” Lott said. “It’s a matter of trust. The president has been very shrill” in his attacks on the GOP bill.

Clinton, at his news conference, questioned the motives of Republicans leery about negotiating with him on the tax cut issue. “If they’re saying, ‘Well, it’s our way or no way,’ then that is evidence that this has been pretty much about politics all along.”

Not all Republicans want to let the matter drop after Clinton’s veto, especially after spending so much time and energy touting the bill in August. They say it would be difficult to explain to voters why, if Republicans cared so much about cutting taxes, they abandoned the cause simply because Clinton vetoed it.

“It’s talking out of both sides of your mouth,” Kuykendall said.

As a result, some Republicans are urging their leaders to pursue the smaller, more targeted tax cuts. One of the most popular elements of the GOP bill is its proposal to ease the marriage penalty, a quirk in the tax code that requires many couples to pay more after they marry than they would if they had remained single. If Congress sent Clinton a bill that would simply ease the marriage penalty, they reason, it would be harder for him to veto.

“There are some things in the bill that the American people want and we can agree on,” said Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.). “I think there ought to be an all-out effort to sit down with Clinton and work out a compromise.”

But writing a new, more targeted tax cut would run afoul of the Senate GOP leaders who are reluctant to tie up floor debate at a time when they are struggling to finish the year’s fiscal business.

“Maybe we need to go ahead and focus on the work we have to get done this fall, and maybe next year we’ll pass another tax reduction package for working Americans,” Lott said.

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Times staff writer James Gerstenzang contributed to this story.