Latest Events to Set Off Political Ripples

Like an earthquake, Los Angeles schools Supt. Ruben Zacarias’ apparently imminent departure will relieve an intense strain along the city’s political and ethnic fault lines, but also will leave a lingering fear of aftershocks, social tremors that could shake issues and campaigns as diverse as the move toward San Fernando Valley secession and the effort to elect Los Angeles’ next mayor.

In recent days, the dominant image of the Los Angeles Unified School District has been that of an institution paralyzed and in chaos, unable to fire its superintendent or to move definitively on its controversial school sites. For those who see the district as an embodiment of big government--and who see the same dysfunctional model in the city itself--the latest controversies will add fuel to their breakup campaigns.

Observers as diverse as Fernando Guerra, director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University, and Richard Close, chairman of Valley VOTE, said the district’s handling of the Zacarias situation has affirmed their belief that the time has come to investigate a district breakup. Their arguments are bolstered even more by the district’s other evident shortcomings, including its struggle to find school sites untainted by environmental hazards--a problem that afflicts the proposed Belmont Learning Complex and two proposed schools in South Gate.

The need for smaller school districts is “more than Belmont, South Gate or Zacarias,” said Close, who also serves as president of the Sherman Oaks Homeowners Assn.

“The issue,” he said, “is [that] the school district is out of control.”

In fact, Zacarias added weight to that argument amid his fight to save his job. Without first clearing it with the board, the superintendent Tuesday unveiled an ambitious proposal to reorganize the district into a dozen semiautonomous “mini-districts.”

Breaking up the school district has long been a rallying call for largely white voters in the San Fernando Valley. What has changed in recent days, however, is that they suddenly have found themselves allied with some Eastside leaders, most of them Latino, who come to the debate with different motives. The latter believe that their champion, Zacarias, has been mistreated by the school board, and that has pushed them to the same conclusion as the Valley voters--that they might be better off in another district.

School District Breakup Discussed

Once tempers cool, some may reconsider that notion. In the meantime, breakup is on more tongues this month than it was last month, a triumph for those who long have held that view.

What’s more, the school breakup arguments dovetail with those of city secession advocates, including Close, who maintain that the same forces driving the school district into unmanageability are at work in the city.

As one seasoned political veteran put it: “Whether it’s schools or the city, it’s the same message: Small is beautiful.”

Not everyone buys that notion.

“People need to consider the breakup of the school district and the breakup of the Valley as two completely distinct issues,” said state Sen. Richard Alarcon (D-Los Angeles). “The school district needs to be broken up because the institution is non-responsive and not making its decisions with the involvement of the public. The difference with Valley succession is that the city of Los Angeles is intermixed. Its institutions--the water system, power system and other services--are not as easily definable or separable.”

Those who are wary of school or city breakup warn against overreacting to the current imbroglio or of making hasty decisions in the middle of it.

“This brings back to the debate table secession and the breakup of the school district,” said Miguel Contreras, the head of the Los Angeles County labor federation and one of the city’s most astute political observers. “This has given those new life. But people should rise above this and do what’s in the best interests of children.”

On the margins, the Zacarias debate has become an early constituency test for some of the men and women jockeying for advantage in the mayor’s race. Some of the most prominently discussed candidates, City Atty. James K. Hahn and possible candidate Zev Yaroslavsky, have had little impact on the debate, suggesting that they stand neither to gain nor lose by it.

By contrast, the speaker of the California Assembly, Antonio Villaraigosa (D-Los Angeles), has conducted a shuttle diplomacy effort to resolve the standoff. In doing so, he has tried to navigate between a Latino base that demands respect for the superintendent and Westside leaders who see Zacarias as an obstacle to change.

Steve Soboroff, the businessman whom Mayor Richard Riordan has endorsed as his successor, had the opposite task--how to persuade school reform leaders that he was with them without antagonizing the Latino voters he desperately needs to run an effective campaign.

Some observers unaffiliated with either of those candidates said Villaraigosa may come out of the current mess with a boost if in the end, he is perceived as having helped to broker a settlement. That could help advance his argument that he is the man who has the coalition-building skills he says are needed to govern Los Angeles.

Impact Mixed on Villaraigosa

At the same time, the debate has demonstrated that Villaraigosa’s influence is limited, especially among politically prominent Latinos. For as much as Villaraigosa has sought to place himself in the middle of the Zacarias debate, he has been confronted with state Sen. Richard Polanco (D-Los Angeles), who has been the superintendent’s leading champion.

“Richard once again demonstrated that he is the closest thing to a major league Latino leader in this city,” said one political consultant. “At some point, Villaraigosa has to confront that, if he’s going to be mayor.”

Although predictions about the Zacarias controversy’s impact on Villaraigosa were mixed, there was general consensus that recent days have done significant damage to Soboroff, who some say was associated with the effort to oust the superintendent.

“This is a big loser for Steve Soboroff,” one observer said. “If Soboroff somehow finds his way into a general election, the Richard Polancos, the Gloria Molinas and the Richard Alarcons are going to remember that Steve Soboroff . . . helped orchestrate this overthrow.”

On another front Soboroff may also suffer, some said. Part of his campaign message is that he will manage the city more effectively than his opponents would. And yet, if anything, the effort to first limit Zacarias’ power and then dump him altogether has been marked by secret meetings, possible violations of state law and procedural errors so serious that even those who sympathize with the goal of restructuring the district have had a hard time defending the board’s attempts to do that.

In response, Soboroff’s supporters argue that he was not intimately involved in those controversial decisions.

Observers Will Watch Replacement

As observers contemplate the next step, many agree that the fallout will largely be dictated by whom the board picks to follow Zacarias.

Several noted that many African American leaders angrily protested the moves to deny Police Chief Willie L. Williams a second term, but their dismay subsided when Chief Bernard C. Parks was picked as his successor.

Similarly, some said Wednesday that if the district can find a successor to Zacarias who is well-liked among Latinos--former San Francisco and New York schools chief Ramon C. Cortines was among those prominently being discussed--that might tamp down some of the long-term effects of the current crisis.

Cortines enjoys wide support and affection. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is a longtime backer, and he carries the credential of having gone to battle with New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a fact that could endear him to the more liberal Los Angeles leadership, including Polanco and Molina.

“The ultimate impact of this will be felt once we get to the end of the story,” one observer said. “Right now, we’re in the middle of the story. The end of the story is when we get a new superintendent. It sounds like that’s going to be sooner rather than later. A lot sooner.”

Times staff writers Kristina Sauerwein and Andrew Blankstein contributed to this story.