Key Date for Mideast Peace Gets Only a Nod

JERUSALEM — A group of Jewish radicals will be out today, gathering in an Arab neighborhood to celebrate the end of what came to be known as the Oslo peace process.

But they will definitely be in the minority. Most Israelis and Palestinians, some with relief and some with sadness, have decided to observe the day with only a passing nod.

May 4 was to be the conclusion of a five-year transition that would establish permanent peace between Israelis and Palestinians, define Palestinian self-rule and settle hard disputes such as who controls the holy city of Jerusalem.

It was also to be the day on which Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat proclaimed an independent state, whether or not the Israelis were prepared to accept it. The Israeli army and politicians alike had been bracing for a deadly explosion.

Instead, Arafat postponed his proclamation. Both the considerable hopes and vexing fears inspired by today’s milestone have been overshadowed by raging mistrust, delays, unfulfilled promises and a contentious Israeli campaign for elections this month.

For the original architects of the accord that set this peace process in motion, the balance of the last five years is more positive than negative, though the achievements only dramatize what has not been accomplished. Some of the original participants bemoan the slow pace of consolidating peace but also say a fragile momentum has emerged that may be hard to reverse.

“If I look at the process from a historical perspective, we have achieved huge goals in five years,” said Ron Pundak, an Israeli academic and former journalist who played a pivotal role in the secret talks with Palestinians that led to Oslo.

“At a personal level, I would have liked to have made much faster progress. But within the process, we have achieved dramatic and fundamental changes that will lead to a target that we would have liked to see on May 4, but that we will see a bit later.”

One of Pundak’s counterparts was Ahmed Korei, who eventually became the Palestinians’ chief negotiator at Oslo. Korei, known as Abu Ala, is today less sanguine. He too notes many achievements but worries that the last couple of years of “wasting time” have done enormous damage.

Assessing Changes Since Process Began

Pundak, Korei and others involved in the original peace negotiations listed the changes they see:

The Palestinian Authority and Arafat are established as the legitimate representatives of and interlocutors for the Palestinian people, before both Israeli and American governments.

A majority of Israelis and Palestinians consider a Palestinian state to be inevitable.

A peace process is no longer the purview of a small group of intellectual Israeli leftists and Palestinian visionaries but of a major portion of the Israeli and Palestinian societies.

Defying history, the late Yitzhak Rabin, prime minister of Israel, and Arafat signed the landmark Oslo peace accords in September 1993, establishing mutual recognition and formally ending decades of hostility. It was eight months later, however, with the May 4, 1994, signing in Cairo of the “Gaza-Jericho” agreement that the five-year clock was started. Israeli troops began to withdraw from parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while Palestinian institutions were slowly created.

The leaders reasoned that, in time, Israelis could be made to feel safe, while Palestinians could be made to feel sovereign. The five-year period was intended to build trust and confidence between the two sides.

Peace Talks Have Stagnated

Any trust that began to take root, however, has withered as peace talks stagnated in recent months on all but the most technical issues. Ill will and animosity seem to have replaced the lofty ideals voiced five years ago.

Korei said he now appreciates that it was never easy for Israel or for Rabin to carry forth the first phases of the Oslo agreement. With Rabin’s assassination in November 1995, and the rise to power six months later of a right-wing coalition headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, the tortuous pace slowed dramatically, he said.

Perhaps more than their Israeli neighbors, Palestinians are frustrated. Hundreds of Palestinians who are viewed at home as political prisoners continue to languish in Israeli jails; the controversial expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank continues at a rapid pace; Palestinians watch as whatever hold they might have had on Jerusalem erodes.

Only 29% of the West Bank, Korei noted, is under partial or full Palestinian control--and much of that is in small chunks of noncontiguous territory.

Israelis have complaints as well. For some Jews it has been a wrenching experience to see biblical land ceded to Palestinian control. Israel points to a litany of peace-pact violations by Palestinian officials, including the use of anti-Jewish slurs in school textbooks and in public commentaries, and the failure to arrest terrorism suspects.

Some View Results of Oslo as a Sham

Some Israelis go further. The group that will be rallying today in east Jerusalem, led by far-right legislator Benny Elon, believes that the entire Oslo process has been a dangerous sham that allowed Arafat to build a fiefdom with no accountability.

For now, the question of the Palestinian state has been deferred. Under great international pressure, Arafat agreed last week to postpone the independence proclamation at least until June, after the Israeli elections. Both he and the Israelis, regardless of who wins the elections, are expected to heed an entreaty from the Clinton administration to prolong the Oslo entente for another year.

Forced to set aside what he had previously called a “sacred date,” Arafat seized the moment to show off growing international support for the Palestinian cause. One of the most significant changes in the last five years has been a friendlier relationship between the Palestinian leadership and a once-distant American government.

“In the past, the United States listened to reports about us,” Korei said. “Now they listen to us. It’s very, very important.”

The future of the pursuit of peace between Israel and the Palestinians will vary according to the outcome of the May 17 Israeli elections and a likely runoff June 1 that will determine the next prime minister.

Many Palestinians do not hide their preference that Netanyahu not be Israel’s choice.

‘People Are Fed Up With Conflict’

The optimistic Pundak--who is working on behalf of Netanyahu’s principal opponent, Ehud Barak--said that no matter who wins, Oslo will not die. Even Netanyahu, who in 1996 campaigned against the peace accords, eventually signed two additional agreements, one giving part of the West Bank city of Hebron to the Palestinians and, then, last year’s Wye Plantation agreement on further withdrawals.

“I am not saying that we have reached a point of no return, because a bad government can kill the process, at least for some time,” Pundak said. “But the only other option is conflict. And people are fed up with conflict.”

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Timetable for Peace

Major events in the Middle East peace process:

Sept. 13, 1993: Landmark Oslo peace accords are signed by Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, establishing mutual recognition and formally ending decades of hostility.

May 4, 1994: “Gaza-Jericho” agreement is signed in Cairo, starting five-year countdown to Palestinian independence. Israel begins troop withdrawal from parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip; Palestinians begin creating institutions for self-rule.

Sept. 28, 1995: Israel and the Palestinians sign accord on further Israel withdrawals from West Bank villages; elections are planned for Palestinian Council to act as primary Palestinian governmental body.

Nov. 4, 1995: Rabin is assassinated; despite concerns for future of peace process, implementation of most recent agreement is accelerated.

Jan. 20, 1996: Palestinian Council is elected; Arafat elected Palestinian president with 87.1% of vote.

May 5, 1996: “Final talks” on Palestinian autonomy begin.

May 29, 1996: Conservative Likud party wins elections, with Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister. Progress on implementation of accords slows.

Jan. 17, 1997: Arafat and Netanyahu reach agreement on Israeli withdrawal from Hebron.

Oct. 23, 1998: Prolonged stalemate over further implementation of accords is ended with historic Wye Plantation accord signed in Maryland by Netanyahu and Arafat, accord, which places more of the West Bank under Palestinian supervision in return for renewed efforts to protect the security of Israelis.