Arafat in Dilemma Over Statehood Vow

GAZA CITY —  For more than a year, Yasser Arafat has vowed to declare the establishment of a Palestinian state on May 4, despite repeated Israeli promises to retaliate if he does so.

The Palestinian Authority president has used the issue of independence--and the specter of the violence that might result--as a powerful bargaining chip.

Now, as he heads to Washington this week to meet with President Clinton, Arafat must use that chip to extract a price for his almost certain decision to back down or risk backlash from his increasingly disillusioned people.

“He cannot deliver on his promise of a state for now,” said Ghassan Khatib, a Palestinian political analyst in Jerusalem and a former peace negotiator. “In exchange, he needs something, some achievements to show his people, from the peace process.”

Many Palestinians had initially attached little significance to May 4, the target date for a final peace settlement as set by the 1993 Oslo peace accords. However, Arafat’s repeated promises of declaring statehood have raised expectations.

With the peace process stalled and crucial Israeli elections scheduled less than two weeks after the target date, the Clinton administration and a variety of European and Arab leaders are urging Arafat, publicly and privately, to postpone the announcement. The U.S. Senate and House recently passed resolutions expressing overwhelming opposition to a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence.

A master at brinkmanship, Arafat has not said whether he will put off the announcement, and he has embarked on a whirlwind tour of the Middle East and Europe to seek advice before he departs for Washington.

Publicly, Palestinian officials say he must proceed with the declaration.

“It has to go forward,” Ahmed Abdel Rahman, the secretary-general of Arafat’s Cabinet, said in an interview. Otherwise, “this government would be very weak and our people not believe us anymore.”

Yet many Palestinian leaders and Western diplomats close to Arafat say they expect him to agree to a delay--in return for some concessions.

Arafat is hoping to receive assurances that the United States and others will recognize the state when it is declared, that the waiting period will be finite, and that Israel will be pressured to proceed with troop withdrawals mandated under last October’s agreement reached at Maryland’s Wye Plantation.

Even without such promises, Arafat may find a way to allow his self-imposed, and now problematic, deadline to slip.

Backing down without visible diplomatic achievements may weaken Arafat further in the eyes of many Palestinians who are frustrated with the lack of progress toward peace and with a government widely viewed as mismanaged and corrupt.

Here in the restive Gaza Strip, public anger boiled over March 10 in riots that broke out after a military court sentenced a police officer from a powerful Palestinian family to death for his role in a February shootout that killed another police officer.

In scenes reminiscent of the intifada, the violent 1987-93 Palestinian uprising against Israel, Palestinians took to the streets to throw stones at their own security forces and voice frustration with Arafat’s government.

Police opened fire on a surging crowd in the town of Rafah near the Egyptian border, and two teenagers were killed.

The shootings are under investigation.

Arafat also met recently with relatives and supporters of the man who was sentenced to death by firing squad, and he may commute the sentence in an effort to calm widespread anger at a trial many described as unfair.

In the last six months, three death sentences--all imposed on members of the security forces--have been carried out in the Palestinian territories, all after rapid trials criticized by human rights advocates.

With the root causes of public frustration still unresolved, many Palestinians say violent outbursts probably will continue.

“People are totally frustrated with what is happening now, with the absence of law, democracy, freedom,” said Ghazi Hamed, editor of the opposition Al Resala newspaper. “People are asking questions and not receiving any answers from the leadership. They feel that the only thing they can do is go to the streets.”

Arafat’s critics say he continues to rule the Palestinian Authority much as he once ran the Palestine Liberation Organization, without regard for such institutions as the Palestinian legislature.

He has yet to sign the vast majority of laws passed by the legislators, including the Basic Law, which is akin to a constitution.

Yet here and in the West Bank, a special outrage is reserved for the often heavy-handed branches of Arafat’s security forces, which many Palestinians say hold no regard for any law.

Last week, the cinder-block walls of the Yibna refugee camp in Rafah were crowded with graffiti criticizing the police.

“We wanted these people to liberate us from the Israelis, but now they are killing us and insulting us,” said Zaki, a young man who said he was too fearful of the police to give his last name. “They arrest people without any reason, and they enter people’s homes and shoot them. Our situation from this is so bad, we are becoming hopeless.”

He and others refrained from criticizing Arafat by name. However, the Palestinian leader’s approval rating in public opinion polls, which soared to 78% soon after the Oslo accords, recently has hovered near 40%, his lowest level in four years of polling by the Nablus-based Center for Palestine Research and Studies.

Khalil Shikaki, the center’s director, said Arafat remains firmly in control.

“But his domestic performance is lousy, and he knows that,” Shikaki said. “People don’t trust the judicial system, the security system, the leadership. If he fails to deliver anything diplomatically to take the place of a declaration on May 4, he will make the situation worse.”

Shikaki said he believes that Arafat should proceed with the statehood declaration. However, he also said Arafat won’t do so.

“If the American president tells him not to declare a state, he will not do it,” Shikaki said.

Instead, Arafat may ask the United States and other sponsors of the peace process to officially extend the interim agreement periods, providing him with diplomatic cover for putting off the declaration.

And last week, he announced that several decision-making bodies of the Palestine Liberation Organization will gather in April to decide whether to proceed with the declaration, a move many here saw as laying the political groundwork for a postponement.

Special correspondent Fayed abu Shammalah contributed to this report.