A Date With Destiny

This has been a strange year--a time that tries Oscar watchers’ souls.

By this point in the process, with the 71st Academy Awards only a week away, a consensus has usually emerged among those whose business or hobby it is to predict the eventual winners. The favorite doesn’t always win, but at least there is one. This year, however, the smart money is scratching its collective head.

The best picture category is a case in point. When “Saving Private Ryan” came out in June, it seemed like a lock for the award. But then a crowd-pleasing dark horse, “Shakespeare in Love,” emerged at year’s end to considerable popularity, and all of sudden there was a contest.

In truth, part of the reason the race materialized is that the academy, which likes a little competition as much as anyone, seemed to want it. In addition to enjoying “Shakespeare,” academy voters may not have been happy to simply concede the award to “Ryan.” They wanted something new (“Ryan” having come out months before), and they wanted a tussle, especially after last year’s completely predictable “Titanic” cleanup, and a tussle is what they got.

Yet the giddiness of infatuation with “Shakespeare,” which led the pack with 13 nominations, feels like it’s run its course. It seems likely, though by no means sure, that voters, perhaps put off by Miramax’s unceasing ad campaign, will remember why they were so impressed with “Ryan” in the first place. Its epic qualities are more in line with the ones the academy traditionally recognizes in this category, and, despite being crowded by “Shakespeare” and even “Life Is Beautiful,” it still has to be called the favorite.

The choices in the other major categories look to be as follows:

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BEST DIRECTOR: One of the easier categories to predict, and Steven Spielberg looks to be a surer bet here than “Ryan” is for best picture. The sheer bravura quality of his work is hard to gainsay and should be enough to carry the day. The biggest competition might come from Terrence Malick, whose “The Thin Red Line” is in many ways as complete an antithesis to “Ryan” as another World War II-themed film could possibly be.

The pick: Steven Spielberg.

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BEST ACTOR: This is a tough-to-call, three-person race among Nick Nolte for “Affliction,” Ian McKellen for “Gods and Monsters” and Roberto Benigni for “Life Is Beautiful.” McKellen is one of the world’s great stage actors and British to boot, both advantages where the academy is concerned, but Nolte has the career achievement thing going for him. On the other hand, “Affliction” is a much tougher movie to sit through than “Gods,” and the last time Nolte was up for this award, for “The Prince of Tides” in 1991, he was--guess what?--beaten by a talented Brit named Anthony Hopkins. As for Benigni, his stock rose after his Screen Actors Guild award and his in-person euphoria may be hard to resist.

The pick: Ian McKellen.

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BEST ACTRESS: Though Gwyneth Paltrow might triumph if there is a wave of “Shakespeare”-mania (and her SAG win makes that a stronger possibility), the favorite has to be Cate Blanchett, easily the best thing (perhaps even the only good thing) in “Elizabeth,” a film the academy liked enough to nominate seven times. She plays the title character beautifully, and the film’s lasting final image is of her as well. Blanchett’s strongest competition will probably come not from Paltrow but from exceptional Brazilian actress Fernanda Montenegro, who scooped up hordes of critical plaudits for her work in “Central Station.”

The pick: Cate Blanchett.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Robert Duvall (“A Civil Action”), Ed Harris (“The Truman Show”) and Geoffrey Rush (“Shakespeare”) are performers the academy looks fondly on, but they’re not going to win. James Coburn is galvanizing in “Affliction,” but the career achievement nod will not go his way. Instead the victory will likely go to an actor who gives perhaps his best performance in “A Simple Plan,” and whom the academy seems to have a permanent crush on.

The pick: Billy Bob Thornton.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: A very tricky category to predict. Both Lynn Redgrave and Brenda Blethyn are well-respected, and Judi Dench, who was a co-favorite to win best actress for “Mrs. Brown” last year (it went to Helen Hunt for “As Good as It Gets”), is a great stage actress with a small but juicy part. She has to be the conventional favorite, but the fact that SAG winner Kathy Bates, a very popular performer who was memorable in “Primary Colors,” happens to be the only American actress out of five nominees could just tip the scales in her favor.

The pick: Kathy Bates.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: A theoretical case could be made why the academy might go for “Bulworth,” “Life Is Beautiful,” “The Truman Show” or “Saving Private Ryan” in this category, but theory only goes so far. In practice, the pleasure almost universally taken in “Shakespeare in Love” is perceived as coming directly from the script by Marc Norman and Tom Stoppard, and that is where the award will go.

The pick: “Shakespeare in Love.”

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: A category as murky as the original one is crystal-clear, and possibly the toughest contest to call. Scott Frank’s work with Elmore Leonard’s “Out of Sight” is the best of the five, and though it won the Writers Guild nod, the Hollywood community’s resistance to the film might hold it back. “Gods and Monsters” and “A Simple Plan” have more of a shot than “Primary Colors,” but the award could conceivably go to Malick’s work for “The Thin Red Line.” Yes, the script is the weakest aspect of this film, but the fervor of its partisans, plus a general desire to see the reclusive Malick make his way to the podium, might push it to victory.

The pick: “The Thin Red Line.”

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BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: Given that it was nominated for seven Oscars, a record for a foreign-language picture, “Life Is Beautiful” would appear to be a shoo-in. But, once again, it’s possible academy members will think the film has been honored enough and will try to draw attention to Brazil’s “Central Station.” If there ever was a year when anything could happen, this would have to be it. Still it’s hard to get past . . .

The pick: “Life Is Beautiful.”*