India, Pakistan: Perilous Heat

This week’s downing of a Pakistani reconnaissance plane by an Indian fighter jet, killing all 16 crewmen, escalates the ominous tension between two neighbors that have fought three wars in half a century. What makes the situation far more dangerous now is that both countries tested nuclear weapons 15 months ago. There is little room for misjudgment.

The downing of the Pakistani plane expanded the conflict geographically and militarily. This spring, Indian troops and Pakistani-backed guerrillas fought along Himalayan peaks in the disputed territory of Kashmir. More than 1,000 soldiers were killed. Pakistani ground fire downed two Indian planes during the battles, but there was no air-to-air combat. The fighting ended last month when Pakistan ordered the guerrillas to withdraw. President Clinton’s Washington meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif played an important role in getting Islamabad to put a leash on its attack forces.

In the current crisis, Pakistan accuses India of having invaded its air space to shoot down the reconnaissance plane, while India claims the aircraft crossed into its territory. The Pakistanis fired a ground-to-air missile at the Indian plane but missed.

To stop this spiral, both India and Pakistan need to heed a 1991 agreement to refrain from flying within six miles of the frontier without prior notification.

Countries like China, Russia, Japan and the United States need to exercise their influence, stressing to Islamabad and New Delhi the unthinkability of nuclear weapon use. The two countries should avoid provocation and moderate their rhetoric. This a time for cool diplomacy, not hot words.