Montenegro Braces for Worst From Milosevic

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina —  Slobodan Milosevic’s replacement of his top army commander in Montenegro with a hard-line ally prompted a warning Friday from NATO to the Yugoslav president not to try to overthrow the tiny republic’s democratically elected government.

From ordinary citizens to reformist President Milo Djukanovic, many Montenegrins are trying to keep a lid on ethnic and political tensions in the republic, but the threat to the government’s stability appears to be growing.

“Although I cannot give you the details today, I can say that we have evidence to show that [Milosevic] is preparing a coup against Montenegro to replace President Djukanovic,” British Defense Ministry official Edgar Buckley told reporters in London on Friday.

NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana, speaking in Brussels, warned Friday that the alliance would take action if Milosevic sent troops from Serbia into Montenegro to overthrow Djukanovic, who is seen as Milosevic’s most significant political rival within Yugoslavia. Serbia and the much smaller Montenegro are all that is left of the Yugoslav federation.

“Milosevic should know that if he decides to do something of that nature . . . he will be stopped,” Solana said. “We have plans to stop him.”

Such action could come as part of NATO’s campaign of airstrikes against Yugoslav military targets, Solana said. There are already an estimated 15,000 Yugoslav soldiers stationed in Montenegro, But many are of Montenegrin origin, and their loyalty to Milosevic in any violent showdown with Djukanovic’s government might be minimal.

In an apparent attempt to firm up his control of the Yugoslav army forces in Montenegro, Milosevic this week replaced several of its generals, including its top commander.

Yugoslavia’s official Tanjug news agency reported Thursday that Milosevic had named Gen. Milorad Obradovic to replace Gen. Radosav Martinovic as army commander in Montenegro. Obradovic is an ally of Milosevic, while Martinovic had maintained reasonably smooth relations with the civilian authorities of the Montenegrin government.

Many Montenegrins, meanwhile, are doing their best to try to cool the tensions.

“There is no reason to panic,” Social Welfare Minister Predrag Drecun told a news conference Friday in Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital.

Striving to Avoid Strife

At the McDonald Bar in the town of Tuzi, just outside Podgorica, the liquor was flowing and the conversation was lively in a mixed Montenegrin-Albanian group when some foreign visitors walked in recently.

An ethnic Albanian man stood up, greeted the strangers and motioned to Ratko Popovic, with whom he was sharing a table. “Serb,” the Albanian man said, slashing his own neck in a throat-cutting motion--but with a huge grin on his face.

“I am Montenegrin, not Serb,” Popovic, 53, said, correcting his friend. “I think it is very important that I come here and be with them. You will pass, but we will still be here. They are good boys. This is my home. This is also the home of my friends the Albanians.”

Even Montenegro’s main opposition party, the pro-Milosevic Socialist People’s Party, said Friday that it wants stability.

“In a state of war, any change in the authorities would represent a revolution, a change brought about by violence and civil strife,” said Predrag Bulatovic, the party’s vice president. “We want to avoid this.”

Montenegrin Foreign Minister Branko Perovic, in an interview conducted before the replacement of Martinovic by the hard-line Obradovic, was asked whether Milosevic might order the army to take over the Montenegrin government. He replied: “Obviously, this is a possibility, but I don’t think this is a good moment to do it, having all those airstrikes in Kosovo.

“We will oppose [any military takeover] by every possible means,” Perovic added. “It is part of the history of Montenegro: If someone is trying to suppress it by force, the reaction will be very intense. I think all Montenegrins will be against such a measure.”

The Montenegrin government controls heavily armed police who are loyal to Djukanovic, with their numbers estimated at about 10,000, compared with the estimated 15,000 Yugoslav army troops in Montenegro. In a fight between the two, the Yugoslav army could be expected to prevail, but there could be heavy resistance. Montenegro’s population is 650,000.

In Washington, State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said Friday that “this sudden change of key military officers in Montenegro indicates that President Milosevic has serious concerns about the loyalty of his troops.”

“We do not have exact figures,” Rubin said. “We believe that a large percentage of the Yugoslav military personnel stationed in Montenegro are ethnic Montenegrins. So Montenegro is a very important place right now. We’re watching it very, very closely. Secretary [of State Madeleine] Albright is discussing this daily with her colleagues from other NATO countries, and it’s a matter of some concern to us.”

Perovic, the foreign minister, acknowledged that a significant minority of Montenegrins fervently supports Milosevic, including not just the relatively small ethnic Serbian minority but also many of the republic’s ethnic Montenegrins, who in language and culture are very closely related to the Serbs.

“There is a lot of Montenegrin ‘Serb national feeling,’ ” Perovic said. “Their identification with Serb national feeling is through the Serbian Orthodox Church. That’s why the people here have this strange double national feeling--through religion.”

Searching for Some Balance

After NATO launched its bombing, and Serbian state television began airing even stronger pro-Milosevic broadcasts than usual, state television in Montenegro started running rebroadcasts of CNN reports, with Montenegrin translation voiced over the barely audible English.

The purpose, Perovic said, was to provide the Montenegrin public with broader sources of information and some balance to the “propaganda” emanating from Belgrade, the Serbian and Yugoslav capital.

The political challenge to Milosevic posed by Montenegro has nothing to do with undercutting the Yugoslav president’s power base, which does not rest on this republic, but rather comes from the threat of the Montenegrin example of democracy and economic reform, Perovic said.

If Milosevic remains in power, Perovic added, it is difficult to see how Yugoslavia can keep its present form.

“This is a very crucial moment and probably a very crucial year for the survival of this federation,” Perovic said. “This Yugoslavia was the choice of the Montenegrins in our referendum of 1992. But at that moment, there was hope [that] not only these two republics would remain in the federation but Bosnia-Herzegovina would be part of it.”

Now, however, “with Milosevic remaining in power, there is no more a way to be part of this federation,” Perovic said. “Having all these airstrikes and consequences as a result of his being in power, it is quite clear and inevitable.”

NATO bombing of Montenegro has targeted a radar station on the Montenegrin coast, the military section of the airport near Podgorica, at least one military barracks and other military facilities outside Podgorica, including one near Tuzi.

“Knowing that there are some installations here, I really can understand” why NATO felt it had to bomb Montenegro despite friendly ties with Djukanovic’s government, Perovic said. “But it is very hard to explain to the people.”

NATO’s bombing of such targets, he added, means that Milosevic can say, “ ‘Look at the Montenegrins--they are traitors, and what have they got for cooperating with the world?’ Now he will use it to show his people we were wrong.”

Pro-Milosevic and pro-Serbian nationalism is represented in Montenegro by groups loyal to Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic, a close Milosevic ally and former Montenegrin president who lost to Djukanovic in an October 1997 election. In that poll, Djukanovic won 173,099 votes to Bulatovic’s 166,771.

In parliamentary elections held May 31, the Coalition for a Better Life, which supported Djukanovic, won 49% of the vote and 54% of the seats, compared with 36% of the vote and 37% of the seats for Bulatovic’s Socialist People’s Party.

Even within families, self-identities are in conflict, said Popovic, the Montenegrin at the McDonald Bar.

“My brother--from one mother and one father--he is Serb, and I am Montenegrin,” Popovic said. “In many families, there are people of two opinions: one Serbian and one Montenegrin.”

The Yugoslav army “is not a national army,” he added. “It is a political army. It will work like Milosevic tells it to.”

NATO’s fight with Milosevic cannot end just with bombing, Popovic predicted. Eventually, “there must come people on legs”--in other words, NATO ground troops in Kosovo, he said.

If that does not happen, he added, “Mr. Milosevic will make revenge on Montenegro” for not supporting the Yugoslav war effort.

Backers of Serbia “think that we are traitors to Mr. Milosevic and company,” he said. “That will be very dangerous for the Montenegrin people.”