El Toro Airport Vital to County, Study Says

An international airport at El Toro is essential for Orange County’s business growth in the next century and would generate $216 million a year in taxes for local governments, according to an economic analysis released Friday by the Orange County Business Council.

Leaders of the council, a major supporter of a commercial airport to replace the Marine Corps Air Station, said the new study is fact-driven ammunition to counter arguments by South County cities that an airport won’t benefit the county and would drain tax dollars.

“The economic benefits of an airport are clear,” said Steven P. Erie, a UC San Diego associate professor who is one of the study’s three authors. “There are significant negative impacts on Orange County businesses and residents if an airport is not built.”

Airport foes acknowledge that an airport would generate revenue, but they say the benefits have to be weighed against the negative impacts of traffic, noise and pollution, which the Business Council study did not address.

“I’m really glad they did this because now we see some numbers, but this is a very narrow study,” said Meg Waters, spokeswoman for the anti-airport El Toro Reuse Planning Authority.

Business Council leaders said they will distribute copies of the analysis to businesses countywide and present the findings to community groups to counter anti-airport arguments and promote support for the airport.

Opponents hope to qualify an initiative for a 1999 special election that would overturn the voter-approved airport and replace it with nonaviation development on the base.

Polls show support for the airport eroding since voters approved it in 1994. The business council study was released a day after results of the Orange County Annual Survey by UC Irvine showed that 48% of county voters oppose the proposed airport and 41% favor it.

“If people really understand the facts and the needs of the future, and look beyond their immediate anxiety and fears about an airport, they’ll take another look,” said businessman George Argyros, who funded the successful 1994 countywide vote that mandated an airport at El Toro when the Marine Corps leaves in July.

Waters said the nonaviation Millennium Plan would provide more jobs and tax revenues for the county without destroying the quality of life in South County neighborhoods. She said the region’s air travel demand can and should be handled by existing airports.

She also questioned whether an airport would be the potent magnet to attract corporate headquarters to Orange County that the study suggests.

“If access to an international airport is so important, why has Orange County become the center for so many corporate headquarters without an airport?” Waters said. “Is it access to an airport, or our lifestyle?”

Among the study’s major findings: An El Toro international airport serving 24 million passengers a year would generate 92,717 jobs, including 64,267 within Orange County and 16,536 on the airport grounds. Total annual tax revenue would be $560 million, with $216 million going to local governments.

The study was based on economic data from 26 U.S. airports that handle 15 million to 30 million passengers a year each. Study co-author Andrew McKenzie of Advanced Transportation Systems in Venice also prepared a computer model to forecast passenger and air cargo use into the year 2020.

In addition, the study examined the costs of accommodating travel demand if an airport isn’t built. It determined that even if other regional airports expand, 500,000 county air travelers wouldn’t be served. It also determined that the time it takes to get to other airports would double, with travelers sitting in traffic an extra 26 million hours a year.

“We didn’t even need to model the worst-case scenario,” professor Erie said.

Beyond the dollar figures, the airport would be indispensable to local businesses that rely on quick and convenient access to air transportation, particularly high-technology businesses, said study co-author John Kasarda, a professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Orange County’s high-tech workers generate 27% more air cargo than other businesses, are more sensitive to travel times and are four times more likely than other workers to use airport services, according to the study.

Bruce Nestande, president of Citizens for Jobs and the Economy, a pro-airport group partially funded by Argyros, said the study provides valuable information for voters. Despite a public-relations drumbeat by anti-airport forces, support for an El Toro airport remains strong, he said.

“Once we get going and explain why this airport is needed, our vote will come back,” Nestande said.