Projecting the BCS Finalists Would Be a Calculated Risk

Turns out it was no joke when someone suggested college football’s national championship matchup might be decided by a decimal point instead of a field goal.

Despite ranking third in the Associated Press and USA Today/ESPN coaches’ polls, UCLA held onto its No. 2 position in Monday’s bowl championship series rankings.

The top two schools in the four-part BCS formula play for the national title in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 4.

As the schools turn for the computer home stretch, Tennessee leads the BCS field with a 3.77 total, followed by UCLA at 5.81, with fast-charging Kansas State going to the whip at 6.55.

UCLA’s lead over No. 3 Kansas State was trimmed from 1.26 points to .74 this week, thanks to a small BCS fluctuation and Kansas State’s long-awaited game against a ranked opponent.

How did Kansas State make up ground? The Wildcats picked up half a point on UCLA by earning a unanimous No. 1 ranking in the coaches’ poll. Last week, Kansas State shared the top spot with Tennessee.

Kansas State made up .52 in strength of schedule, improving from 79th last week to 68th, while UCLA dropped from 10th to 12th.

UCLA still maintains a 2.24 lead over Kansas State in the strength-of-schedule component. Each 25 positions in the rankings represent one computer point.

Assuming Tennessee, UCLA and Kansas State remain unbeaten, the battle for No. 2 in the BCS may come down to a fraction of a point.

Kansas State and UCLA face opponents of almost equal computer strength this week, Missouri and USC, respectively. Missouri ranks 19th in the latest BCS rankings, USC is 20th.

If Tennessee, Kansas State and UCLA survive the weekend, things will really get interesting.

Kansas State is already assured of meeting No. 6 Texas A&M; in the Big 12 title game Dec. 5. UCLA would benefit from Texas knocking some ratings luster off Texas A&M; when those schools meet Nov. 27, and for No. 22 Miami, the Bruins’ opponent Dec. 5, to rout Pittsburgh and Syracuse the next two weeks to further bolster the Hurricanes’ national ranking.