Baghdad Must Supply Arms Inventory, U.S. Officials Say

WASHINGTON —  In the aftermath of its latest confrontation with Iraq, the United States intends to press Saddam Hussein to supply a definitive paper trail to his weapons of mass destruction before the Islamic holiday of Ramadan in late December--or again face the prospect of U.S. military action.

U.S. officials say the Iraqi leader has roughly five weeks to demonstrate a genuine commitment to handing over documents detailing Baghdad’s original inventory of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, its supply lines for materiel and precursors, and its foreign bank accounts.

The raw data, which Iraq has repeatedly refused to provide despite having agreed to do so under terms of the 1991 Persian Gulf War cease-fire, are considered critical to the United Nations’ effort to determine whether Hussein has destroyed his deadly arsenal.

Over the past seven years, U.N. inspectors have been forced to rely primarily on guesswork to ferret out evidence of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, how they were developed or acquired and where they were hidden.

“This is the moment of truth,” a senior Clinton administration official said Monday. “The burden of proof has always been on the Iraqis--not the U.N. inspectors--to provide an inventory, so we know what they have and what they must destroy. They can’t stall any longer.”

Although the administration has not set a formal deadline, two key holidays in late December--the monthlong Ramadan observance, which begins Dec. 19, and Christmas--have created a de facto deadline for serious Iraqi cooperation, U.S. officials said.

Washington does not want to allow stalling or slippage that would diminish either momentum toward compliance or the international consensus attained over the past two weeks, U.S. officials said.

Muslims fast from dawn to dusk during Ramadan, which runs through Jan. 17, and a U.S. decision to launch a punishing military strike then would be highly controversial among key Arab allies and the wider Islamic world. Similarly, going to war during the Christmas season could prove highly unpopular at home.

The demand for raw data is expected to be accompanied by some of the most intrusive and extensive inspections ever conducted by U.N. weapons inspectors, sources said.

Chief U.N. weapons inspector Richard Butler “will make the call on timing,” said one U.S. official, “but it’s easy to see that he’s going to push for aggressive inspections over the next few weeks.”

After its last-minute decision over the weekend to avert a punishing military strike, the United States sent strong signals Monday that it does not intend to tolerate even slight delays in Iraqi cooperation.

“We remain poised to act if there is any evidence that Iraq will not honor the unconditional commitments they made over the weekend,” White House Press Secretary Joe Lockhart said. “The reconfiguration of forces has enabled us to act quickly and decisively.”

Iraq has no real alternative to complete compliance, Lockhart said, adding: “There is no middle ground for Saddam Hussein anymore.”

The State Department said Monday that there are “vast discrepancies” in Iraq’s account of its chemical and biological weapons, suggesting the possibility that Hussein still has tons of deadly toxins and germ weapons stashed away.

Specifically, Hussein’s regime has not yet accounted for about 8,000 pounds of 68,000 pounds of imported “growth media” that could be used to produce biological weapons, State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said.

In addition, the State Department said, Baghdad may not have reported the existence of almost as large an amount of chemical weapons as the VX, sarin and mustard gas that have been discovered so far.

These two discrepancies potentially involve “an enormous amount” of deadly materiel and indicate Iraq’s accounting is “seriously flawed,” Rubin said.

The initial focus on Iraq’s nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and ballistic missiles represents only half the Clinton administration’s Iraq policy, U.S. officials said.

The longer-term challenge is Hussein himself. And finding a way to change the government in Baghdad will make the disarmament program--which after seven years is still far from complete--look easy, analysts warned.

Several widely publicized efforts designed to undermine Hussein’s rule are still in an embryonic stage.

Radio Free Iraq was launched earlier this month. A total of $97 million earmarked for opposition efforts under the new Iraq Liberation Act has not yet been allocated. Despite an extensive search, the administration is still finding it difficult to recruit a director for its program to work with the Iraqi opposition.

In addition to these campaigns, the administration is preparing a major new intelligence initiative to destabilize Hussein’s regime, according to U.S. sources.

The two-pronged strategy is intended to create an atmosphere that fosters opposition activities both inside and outside Iraq while cultivating or encouraging those who might be close enough to Hussein to act against him, U.S. officials said.

In announcing his decision to call off the U.S. missile barrage, President Clinton on Sunday pledged a heightened U.S. commitment to end repressive rule in Iraq.

“Over the past year, we have deepened our engagement with the forces of change in Iraq. . . . We will intensify that effort . . . to do what we can to make the opposition a more effective voice for the aspirations of the Iraqi people,” the president said.

But experts warned against expecting too much. Past CIA efforts to help the Iraqi National Congress and the Kurdish opposition in the north collapsed more than two years ago. A short-lived coalition led by Sunni Muslims based in Amman, Jordan, fizzled out about the same time. Other covert efforts to penetrate Hussein’s inner circle have borne little fruit.

U.S. officials countered that Washington has learned critical lessons about the groups and individuals with whom it can work among the various Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish populations.

Hussein probably still has the advantage, several experts said.

“Covert operations can put pressure but are unlikely to be able to overthrow him,” said Kenneth Pollack, a senior analyst at the National Defense University in Washington. “Saddam is much too good at snuffing out coups and sniffing out insurrections.”