Survey Finds Sanchez Leading Dornan Big

Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) would soundly defeat Republican rival Robert K. Dornan were the general election held now, according to a survey released Thursday by Chapman University in Orange.

The poll of registered voters in the central Orange County congressional district found that 45% planned to vote for Sanchez in November and 24% favored Dornan.

About 26% were undecided, split evenly among Republicans, Democrats and independents. The rest would vote for other candidates. The survey was conducted during the last two weeks by the school’s Henley Social Sciences Research Laboratory.

The 21% margin for Sanchez “was a shock,” said political science professor Mark Mattern, who conducted the survey.

Spokesmen for both Sanchez and Dornan discounted the importance of the result, saying the only election that counts is in November. Mattern also acknowledged that the poll isn’t an effort to predict what voters will do in four months. He called it instead a marker for how registered voters feel now.

“If the election were held tomorrow, I would call it a slam dunk for Sanchez,” he said, but “the campaign has not yet really begun.”

The survey of 436 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. It made no attempt to identify registered voters who are likely to vote in November.

Among the major surprises in the poll, he said, were that many Republicans are satisfied with Sanchez’s performance and plan to vote for the freshman congresswoman. Sanchez captured 26% of the Republican voters, while Dornan received 7.5% of the Democrats, he said.

Sanchez carried all income, racial and ethnic categories. She even bested Dornan among Anglos, capturing 37% of that group to his 34%.

The Anglo vote provided 80% of the total support for Dornan and 48% of Sanchez’s support. Anglos comprise 56% of the registered voters in the 46th Congressional District, according to the poll.

Sanchez drew two-thirds of the Latino vote, compared to 8% for Dornan, with 22% undecided. Latinos comprise about 20% of the voters polled.

The survey found that while voters believe Dornan has greater knowledge of foreign and domestic policy, 40% believe Sanchez can get more done in Congress, while 29% believe Dornan would be more effective.

The results of the survey mirror those in the June blanket primary, in which Sanchez ran unopposed by Democrats and received 45% of the vote and Dornan captured 27% of the vote in besting three GOP rivals.

The poll results for Sanchez also are similar to 1996, when she took Dornan’s seat by 984 votes, 46.7% to 45.8%, while riding the coattails of President Clinton’s reelection.

The turnout that year was 61%. The turnout in November is expected to be lower, a factor that tends to favor Republican candidates.

A key factor for both candidates will be wooing undecided voters. Particularly important for Dornan will be capturing votes of those who supported his GOP primary rivals.

The survey shows 30% of those who voted for another Republican in June expect to back Dornan in the fall and 17% plan to support Sanchez. About one-third are undecided and the rest said they would vote for “another candidate.”

The candidates’ opposing views on abortion played a major role in the choice made by about one-third of the voters.

Sanchez, who supports abortion rights, drew slightly more support from them than did Dornan, who opposes abortion in most circumstances.

The abortion issue also was a factor in a March 27 letter sent to Sanchez, a Roman Catholic, by Bishop Norman McFarland, who heads the Diocese of Orange.

Sanchez’s office declined to release “the personal letter” but acknowledged that McFarland had taken issue with Sanchez’s support for abortion rights and her frequent appearances at Catholic churches around the district in an election year.

Sanchez spokesman Lee Godown said Sanchez believes “you can be a good Catholic and be pro-choice.” The church, however, vehemently opposes abortion.

Godown also said Sanchez’s visits to churches, temples and mosques are not political appearances and are not publicized in advance.

“The bishop’s point was that he viewed the visits as potentially political in nature,” he said. “It is a fair point to make, but they are not political in nature. She goes to Catholic church to worship. That is her faith.”

Neither McFarland nor a spokesman for the diocese were available to comment.