Bosnian Serb Premier Looks to West for Necessary Aid

BANJA LUKA, Bosnia-Herzegovina â€”  Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serbs’ new prime minister, stares out from the front page of a local newspaper. He is carefully stacking pile upon pile of fresh dollar bills. Millions worth.

Although the photo is faked--Dodik’s head has been superimposed onto the body of a money-counting banker--the symbol is real. Cash, lots of it, may well determine the survival of Dodik’s fledgling government, which is being hailed by the West as the most positive development in Bosnian peacekeeping in a long time.

With barely three weeks on the job, Dodik has reversed years of Bosnian Serb intransigence. His government displaced powerful hard-line nationalists and immediately began cooperating with international officials on the major elements of Bosnian peace accords, from police and license plates to alleged war criminals.

Today, Dodik, 39, will be in Washington meeting Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, part of a three-day visit that includes talks with moneylenders like the World Bank, which is dangling a $20-million aid package. Dodik is not the first leader of the Bosnian Serb Republic, or Republika Srpska, to make an official trip to the U.S. capital, but Clinton administration officials are heaping praise on him to underscore how much they value him.

His ascension represents a significant victory for U.S. policymakers. They sought to push to the margins the obstructionist hard-liners loyal to former President Radovan Karadzic by propping up more pragmatic Bosnian Serb leaders. His election also loosened the grip that ethnic-based nationalist parties have had on power throughout Bosnia this decade.

Willingness to Spar

People who have known Dodik for years attribute his success to his scrappy, no-nonsense determination and willingness to spar with opponents on their level. A tall man with a hulking frame, he counters insults with insults and speaks his mind, leaving aside diplomatic niceties. He was the first Bosnian Serb politician to openly, forcefully oppose Karadzic, especially when the latter rejected peace deals that might have ended the war earlier. And he maintained contacts with moderate Muslim politicians during the war, which earned him further enmity from the Karadzic clique.

A businessman with strong ties to Belgrade, Dodik also puts economic prosperity above ideology. So if cooperating with the West is what it takes to bring money into this impoverished half of Bosnia, Dodik is happy to do it.

And that makes U.S. and European officials happy too. For the first time, a sense has emerged that Bosnia-Herzegovina has turned a corner, which bodes well for stability, reconciliation and the smooth withdrawal of North Atlantic Treaty Organization peacekeeping troops.

“We can differ on proposals,� Dodik scolded a mutinous Bosnian Serb parliament the other night, “but we cannot differ on the central goal of building a prosperous Republika Srpska.�

For all the fanfare accorded the prime minister these days--he was feted in Bonn and Vienna before departing for Washington--the Dodik phenomenon is fragile. His ability to govern relies heavily on Muslim and Croat support, which could be withdrawn over any number of issues. And sidelined Bosnian Serb nationalists are waiting eagerly for any slip-up.

“He’s dancing on the knife’s edge,� said longtime ally Miodrag Zivanovic, a liberal politician. “One should have no illusions that the nationalist forces are defeated. . . . If money comes quickly, the dangers will decrease. The first step for the Dodik government is solving pressing social problems.�

Ties to Milosevic

Of particular concern to many Bosnians is Dodik’s political and economic relationship with Balkan strongman Slobodan Milosevic, the Serbian leader widely blamed for instigating the wars that shredded Yugoslavia and engulfed Bosnia in 3 1/2 years of mayhem. “Dodik is definitely Milosevic’s man,� said Igor Gajic, a political commentator for the Bosnian Serb newsmagazine Reporter.

The son of a landed potato farmer, Dodik rose to become the senior municipal official in a town called Laktasi, near Banja Luka, the Serbs’ principal city. In the 1980s, he transformed Laktasi into a haven for private enterprise, even as the country remained firmly Communist. He became rich through a furniture factory and other businesses.

But friends say Dodik lost most of his money by 1997 through murky deals in Yugoslavia, and several blamed Milosevic. Dodik’s association with him, they say, is based on pragmatism and necessity. “He is realistic,� said Brano Miljus, one of Dodik’s Belgrade-based associates. “Serbia helped the Serbian people a lot . . . and did a lot of harm to the Serbian people.�

Milosevic praised Dodik’s election as prime minister at a crucial moment; that probably helped Dodik consolidate his position. The Yugoslav president now appears to be using his support for Dodik to redeem himself with the West.

Dodik, whose Independent Social Democratic Party held only two seats in the 83-member parliament, was elected prime minister Jan. 18 and took office Feb. 1. His selection by parliament came by a one-vote margin after hard-line politicians stormed out of the session in the middle of the night, leaving Socialists, Dodik’s supporters and Muslims and Croats, who represent refugee voters. Under guidance from the two senior European mediators in Bosnia--Spanish diplomat Carlos Westendorp and his deputy, Hanns Schumacher--the session was reconvened without the hard-liners and the vote taken.

Dodik’s angry opponents, members of Karadzic’s Serbian Democratic Party and their Radical Party allies, later branded the vote an illegal coup.

Hurdles Lie Ahead

A critical test for Dodik comes next month when an American arbitrator is to rule on the status of Brcko, a strategic riverfront town now in Bosnian Serb territory. Both sides--the Serbs and the Muslims and Croats--desperately want the town. Muslims have already threatened to yank their support for Dodik if the city goes to the Serbs; Dodik says that if the Serbs lose Brcko, his government is through.

He also needs to pay pensions and workers’ salaries and the police payroll to prove to a disillusioned population that he can deliver--before national elections in September, in which the nationalists hope to stage a comeback.

“The short term is crucial for us because of the elections,� said Dodik’s information minister, Rajko Vasic, whose tasks include trying to transform Bosnian Serb state television from a Karadzic propaganda tool to a legitimate broadcasting network. Karadzic supporters continue to have access to the airwaves and have refused to return stolen transmitting equipment to Dodik’s government.

The level of unprecedented cooperation coming from Dodik was underscored last week by the first surrender of two Bosnian Serbs indicted on war crimes charges. Until then, the Serbs had steadfastly refused to recognize the international war crimes tribunal at The Hague. But in another 180-degree turn, Dodik stated publicly that he considered the court to be fair and encouraged suspects to turn themselves in.