Emergency Officials Warned on El Nino

El Nino should result in rainfall of at least 150% of normal this year, a meteorologist told Ventura County emergency preparedness officials and volunteers Wednesday.

Nicholas Graham of the Climate Research Division at Scripps Institute of Oceanography near San Diego said his research tells him that the 1997-98 winter months “will be quite possibly the event of the century in the Eastern Pacific.

“This particular El Nino is a superstar,” he said. “It is not coming; it is here.” He said the rainfall of 150% of normal should occur throughout Southern California.

Locally, that would amount to 22 inches in Ventura, which has a 14.44-inch yearly average; 31 inches in Ojai, instead of its normal 21.52 inches per year; and 23 inches for Thousand Oaks, close to 8 inches above normal.

Graham said El Nino, which means “male child” in Spanish, is a condition, not a single storm. “The eastern Pacific Ocean is currently almost 10 degrees warmer than average. The sea level right now off the coast of Ventura is about 9 to 10 inches above normal.”

The weather condition results from a combination of warmer sea surface temperatures and changing wind patterns.

In particular, in the months of January, February and March, Ventura County can expect a combination punch of higher rainfall, a higher sea level, heavier winds, and beach and shore erosion.

“Think of the bathtub effect,” Graham said. “Maximum high tides should be in the morning in Ventura County, which is when structures will be the most vulnerable.

“In 40 years of measuring, this year looks to be the worst. Rainfall could well be 250% above normal.”

Graham said he couldn’t overemphasize the importance of being prepared.

Then he added that although he may be an expert, he can only predict what is most likely to happen in this winter’s climate; it is not a certainty.