Murder in Retreat

Widespread fears of murder in Los Angeles have never fit reality. Far from being a citywide scourge, most homicides take place in poor, working-class inner-city neighborhoods. But every L.A. resident can welcome the news that homicides in the city are declining steeply. The total is at a 20-year low and, even more significant, murders per capita are at a 25-year low (see chart).

In 1977, there were 574 people murdered in Los Angeles. As of mid-December this year, 566 had been slain. In the early 1990s, the figure was more than 1,000. The reduction is even more impressive because the city’s population has grown by 700,000 over the past two decades and because of the proliferation of street gangs.

What to credit for this drop? There appears to be no one cause. Unemployment and poverty have been found to be the most significant factors in the city’s gang homicide rate, according to a 1997 study presented at UCLA by the California Wellness Foundation and the University of California. So the rising economy clearly is one foundation for improvement. Meanwhile, stronger state and federal laws have made it harder to buy cheap handguns and some other firearms.

More police officers and improved policing tactics are also believed to be factors. The expansion of the Los Angeles Police Department pushed by Mayor Richard Riordan and the City Council is putting more patrols on the streets. Police Chief Bernard Parks is borrowing a successful tactic from New York City, where police use up-to-the-minute crime statistics to identify trouble spots and deploy resources.

Stricter sentencing laws such as California’s three-strikes law, which mandates a prison sentence of 25 years to life for conviction on a third violent crime or serious offense, may be an element. Street gang truces and a more stable, less violent drug trade also are cited.

Demographic trends have helped, specifically the reduction of the number of young men in the age group most likely to commit murder and other crimes.

One key result of the new figures could be less anxiety in those neighborhoods that are home to gangs and poverty. Less fear allows more hope and a chance for troubled communities to join the optimism that a better economy has wrought.

Just as it takes a while for the good news to sink in, any creeping rise in murder rates could be too easily ignored. Let’s be thankful but let’s also continue to support all efforts that led to the current L.A. decline in murder.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Diving Homicide Rate

Murders per 100,000 population in Los Angeles since 1970:

1970: 14.01

1997*: 16.48

* Projected

Source: LAPD, city of Los Angeles