Study Finds Immigrants’ Economic Effect Mixed

While immigrants are an overall economic benefit for Southern California, the accumulating concentration of poor newcomers in Los Angeles raises the troubling specter of the city becoming a “repository for the disadvantaged.�

That is the sobering conclusion of a USC study released Wednesday, the third in a series examining immigration to the region.

The study, by USC’s School of Urban and Regional Planning, depicts immigrants as an upwardly mobile population who represent a net fiscal gain to society, paying more in taxes than they receive in services--a conclusion that is still challenged in some quarters.

However, the report points to an emerging phenomenon: The most successful immigrants tend to leave so-called “gateway� cities like Los Angeles for outlying suburbs, leaving behind a core disadvantaged population--even as more impoverished newcomers arrive from abroad.

The result, the study concluded, is that Los Angeles--a “steppingstone� for successful immigrants--is struggling under the weight of a growing poor population, a trend exacerbated by the recession of the 1990s. Between 1990 and 1993, the study said, poverty rates in the entire Southern California region spiked upward by a full one-third, tapering off only slightly thereafter.

The inevitable implication for Los Angeles is a social and economic deterioration, including a diminished tax base, an eroded standard of living, neighborhood instability and other urban woes. Since Los Angeles is by far the largest and most influential city in the region, such downturns could have significant effects throughout Southern California.

“Unfortunately, as Los Angeles becomes more poor, it also will become a less effective gateway, both socially and economically,� the study concluded. “That deterioration also hurts immigrants and other residents who may wish to stay in the city.�

Dowell Myers, a demographer who is the study’s principal author, acknowledged that the report implies a kind of paradox: As immigrants do better economically, the city of Los Angeles tends to do worse.

“Yes, immigrants are escaping from poverty, but the successful ones are moving to the suburbs,� said Myers, who examined U.S. Census Bureau data and surveys to reach his conclusions. “And their places are taken by new immigrants, who tend to be more poor all over again.�

Noelia Rodriguez, a spokeswoman for Mayor Richard Riordan, said city staffers had yet to review the study. But she said its conclusions would seem to underscore the need for steps to bolster the city’s middle class, such as improved schools and policing.

“It sounds to me as though the message is similar to what the mayor has been saying, that for a city to thrive it must have a strong middle class,� Rodriguez said.

The study is part of the expanding body of research--academic, private and governmental--focusing on immigrants in Southern California, the nation’s premier destination for new arrivals. Immigration has become a driving force behind social and economic changes in the region, and the issue’s political volatility was evident during the contentious Proposition 187 campaign in 1994.

Today, families headed by immigrants account for about 40% of all L.A. households, according to census data. And more than half of all city households below the federal poverty line are headed by immigrants, who, while a varied population, tend to be poorer than the native-born.

In the polarized debate about immigrants, newcomers are often depicted as mired in poverty or moving rapidly into the middle class. The USC study presents a nuanced finding that combines aspects of both viewpoints.

Worsening matters for Los Angeles, the authors say, are cuts in federal welfare payments and other assistance to communities that attract new immigrants. The study concluded by urging other levels of government to boost aid to places such as Los Angeles, which play a pivotal role in providing education, health care and other services to newcomers--only to see suburban flight drain away ambitious inhabitants.

“Los Angeles carries a heavy responsibility for helping new immigrants adjust to life in America,� the study said. “That responsibility entails costs that the city’s residents should not have to bear alone.�

But others argue that what Los Angeles needs is fewer immigrants, not more federal and state dollars.

“What you have to do is not absorb large numbers of people who are likely going to end up in poverty,� said Ira Mehlman, West Coast representative of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a Washington group that seeks to reduce immigration levels. Mehlman said he agreed that “L.A. is becoming an enclave for the poor,� but he disputed the notion that more government assistance is a potential solution. “You can’t just throw money at the problem,� Mehlman said.

The study’s essential argument--that the social costs of immigration fall to local government, while the benefits accrue elsewhere--is not a new one. Gov. Pete Wilson has frequently called on Washington to reimburse California for the costs of incarceration and other expenses associated with illegal immigration.

But the USC study focused on the consequences for the city of Los Angeles, which sits at the crest of the current wave of immigration that began in the 1970s and accelerated during the economic boom years of the 1980s. The study assumed that current high levels of immigration probably will remain through the year 2000, fueled largely by legal arrivals reuniting with family members.

The study demonstrates how immigrant groups, often thought to be static settlers, in fact disperse to different communities over time.

For instance, Myers noted how many Latino newcomers move from the Eastside to Montebello and other communities to the east. Asian arrivals, meantime, often move from L.A.’s Chinatown and other urban ethnic enclaves in the city to San Gabriel Valley communities such as Monterey Park.

The move to the suburbswas especially pronounced among Asian immigrants, who account for 27% of new immigrant arrivals. Latino immigrants, who account for about 60% of all new immigrants, remain attached to the city longer, but they too eventually fan out toward the suburbs, the researchers said.

In general, the study found that immigrants with higher household incomes are more likely to leave the city, as are those with higher education and better English-speaking skills. The poorest and least likely to prosper are often left behind, the study found.