Playing the Right Card

For the baseball widow, who spent the off-season praying that Vin Scully would contract laryngitis, the boring sport is back. Which is good news to many of us, including baseball card collectors, for whom there are no off days and no seventh-inning stretches.

Baseball cards, unlike baseball seasons, are never-ending. They come out year-round, strike or no strike, with nary a rainout. In fact, five of the 1996 baseball card series were out before Christmas, and nearly a dozen were out before the season’s opening day.

But not all cards are coveted equally. In Baltimore, Orioles’ collectors hope that their overpriced pack contains a Cal Ripken; in Seattle it is the Mariners’ Ken Griffey Jr. But in our area, collectors pray for a pack containing the Dodger’s fourth consecutive rookie of the year, Japanese pitching sensation Hideo Nomo.

Collector cards have been around for more than a century, the majority of them depicting baseball players. During World War II, in a move that reflected the expanded popularity of baseball itself, the production of baseball cards increased dramatically.

In the early ‘80s, the 30-year monopoly of baseball card manufacturer Topps ended, and today there are five major companies--Topps, Upper Deck, Fleer/Skybox, Pinnacle and Donruss--all of which also issue sets from numerous subsidiaries. This is a result of growth at the retail end.

Fifteen years ago, for example, Baseball Cards Etc. in Simi Valley was about the only full-time card shop in the county. Now there are baseball card shops in nearly every city of the county and scores of card shops in the Valley. And there’s a card show every weekend somewhere within driving distance.

Collecting cards from a crummy team such as the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Kansas City Royals or the Milwaukee Brewers is affordable to even the barely employed: So-so teams with so-so players make for cheap cards. Star cards and rookie cards are what make collectors and dealers salivate.

Which is why the Dodger collector may have to start looking for a night job. The days when several years of L.A. Dodger team sets would fit comfortably into a single three-ring binder have gone the way of the Topps monopoly and the 50-cent bleacher seat. These days, a single binder isn’t big enough to hold even the 1995 Dodger cards.

In 1980, there was one Steve Garvey card. One guy, one card. Last year there were over 130 different cards for the one and only Mike Piazza. A collection of all the Dodger cards for 1995 alone would cost the diligent (and necessarily wealthy) collector, if he or she could find them in the first place, nearly $4,000.

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To collect all 28 teams of the American and National leagues would require a wad of dough (over $45,000) worthy of a club owner, or a millionaire player like Nomo.

But there’s a fairly simple explanation for the growth of card collecting to a $1.2-billion-a-year industry.

Rising card prices in the last few years are due to the introduction of the expensive premium card sets pioneered by Upper Deck, and also, the insert card. Basically a subset within the main set, insert cards are found randomly inserted into packs. They have a much smaller print run, some as low as a few hundred, making them scarce and, depending upon a player’s popularity, possibly quite expensive.

But according to experts, by 1994 the industry had overproduced and oversaturated the market. The business was “going into the tank,” said Tom Mortensen, editor of the Sports Collectors Digest. The baseball strike that year was the industry’s wake-up call.

“The companies took a 40% hit in 1995, and so far in ’96 sales are up from 2% to 4%,” said Kevin Isaacson, editor of The Card Trader, a monthly industry publication. “Basically, I think, now the companies are trying to keep it from getting any worse,” said Isaacson. “They’ve lost their base. I think you’ll see a very conservative recovery plan--good products at reasonable prices.”

Even with their losses, baseball cards, which used to represent 70% to 75% of the market, still account for approximately half of the collector card business, which includes all sports and entertainment cards.

Part of the recovery has to do with Nomo. Only the second Japanese athlete to play in the major leagues, Nomo, with a mean fork ball and a 90 mph fastball, won 13 games including the division-clinching game for the Dodgers last year.

Nomo also led the National League with 236 strikeouts and was the National League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star game. The resulting Nomomania, the first definitive Dodger dementia since Fernandomania (for Fernando Valenzuela) in 1981, has naturally affected the baseball card market.

“The year Nomo was picked to be rookie of the year was not a very good year for baseball cards in general, but he provided a bright light in an otherwise disappointing season, and we’re doing terrific in 1996,” said Marty Appel, spokesman for Topps. “Topps Baseball Series 1 has sold out.”

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To dealers, the comparison between Valenzuela cards and Nomo cards is inevitable, except that Fernando’s 1981 Topps rookie card is about $3, and there were no insert cards then.

“The difference with Fernando Valenzuela and Fernandomania in 1981 is that Valenzuela had cards in the sets, and nobody had to wait,” said John Franklin of Ventura Sportscards. “What the deal is with Nomo is that here was a guy who had a tremendous following and no cards until after the All-Star game. Then, when his cards came out, people went nuts--50,000 people were waiting for one card. It was just pent-up demand, and for awhile, everyone had to have one.”

The high-dollar Nomo card was the limited edition ’95 Select Artist Proof, of which only 475 were made. That card was around $175 two months ago, but is available for about a $100 today, which is still a lot of money for a card. This year there are apt to be far more Nomo cards released onto the market.

The high-dollar Nomo card so far this year is a ’96 Pinnacle Starburst Artist Proof Nomo, selling for about $50, about the same as Piazza cards but less than the most popular players--Cal Ripken, Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey Jr.

But the fickle card collector’s capacity to forget is boundless, so Nomo could be readily replaced by this year’s as-yet unknown hero. Much of it depends on how Nomo does at his real job--throwing baseballs.

Neil Hoppenworth, one of the nation’s largest card dealers, who lives in Iowa, is not yet willing to bet the farm on Nomo, even though he was one guy who sold a zillion of Nomo’s cards.

“There’s no way I can see his card appreciate any further. I mean, what else is there for him to do?” said Hoppenworth. “He led the league in strikeouts and he was rookie of the year. There’s no way he can exceed expectations. All he can do is go down.”

Franklin, a Dodger fan, said, “I think it’s really calmed down recently. Piazza and Raul Mondesi cards peaked after they got the [rookie of the year] award, then they went down the following year. It’s just fair-weather fans. The cards that are 12 bucks now, will be four or five dollars in a couple of months. And in six months, you’ll see Nomo cards in bike spokes.”