Fall Menu Serves Up Ear Candy : Pop Beat: Retailers and radio programmers have high hopes for a new Whitney Houston soundtrack and the latest from Janet Jackson, Chili Peppers, Smashing Pumpkins and Dogg Pound.

By STEVE HOCHMAN

Sept. 2, 1995 12 AM PT

SPECIAL TO THE TIMES

Can Janet do better than Michael? Can Whitney and Garth top themselves? Will the Peppers and Pumpkins be a rock bumper crop? And will Tha Dogg Pound’s album really get released?

Those are the questions on the minds of record retailers and radio programmers as the always star-heavy fall music release season approaches, the time when the music industry usually brings out its biggest guns for the pre-Christmas buying frenzy.

The predictions:

* Yes, Janet Jackson stands a good shot at outselling her brother’s “HIStory--Past Present and Future Book 1” with her own greatest hits collection, due Oct. 10--a single disc of past favorites plus three new songs recorded in Minneapolis with producers Jimmy Jam and Terry Lewis. One new song, “Runaway,” was released to radio two weeks ago and is among the most-played new songs on several formats.

“There just seems to be a lot more excitement around the Janet album,” says Tracy Austin, music director of L.A. pop radio station KIIS-FM. “The success of [Michael’s single] ‘You Are Not Alone’ will help his album, but I’m not sure it will be enough to drive the album back up the charts.”

* No, the soundtrack album from “Waiting to Exhale”--with performances by Houston, who also co-stars in the movie--is not expected to out-do the last movie-related Houston project, the 15-million-selling soundtrack from “The Bodyguard.” But the collection, due Nov. 7--and also featuring songs by such other top pop divas as Toni Braxton, Aretha Franklin and TLC, all written and produced by Kenny (Babyface) Edmonds--is considered perhaps the favorite to lead fall sales.

“That record will be gigantic,” says Jeff Pollack, president of the Pollack Media Group radio consulting firm. “It would be big anyway, but with Babyface involved it’s a sure-fire monster.”

Diva-watchers are also embracing Mariah Carey’s “Daydream,” due Oct. 3, as a lock to continue her run of multimillion-sellers. The new single, “Fantasy,” had an even stronger radio debut last week than Janet Jackson’s new song the week before.

* Similarly, Garth Brooks’ “Fresh Horses,” which he’s intently working on in hopes for a late-November release, is considered unlikely to top his country music record of 13 million sold for his 1990 album “No Fences.” But the new single, “She’s Every Woman”--his first in two years--is far and away the hottest new song on country radio, and as the 7 million sold of last year’s “The Hits” shows, he still stands hat and shoulders above the rest of the country field.

“We need a new Garth record to drive the country market,” says R.J. Curtis, program director of L.A. country radio station KZLA-FM. “There have been albums lately to spike it a little, but there’s a big difference between driving and spiking.”

Also eagerly awaited is a greatest-hits package from Alan Jackson, whose last two albums have sold a total of more than 9 million copies.

* Yes, the Red Hot Chili Peppers and Smashing Pumpkins are each expected to build on the commercial breakthroughs of their last albums, though their upcoming releases reflect new directions for both bands.

The Peppers’ “One Hot Minute,” in stores Sept. 12, is the first with ex-Jane’s Addiction guitarist Dave Navarro, who brings an adventurous sonic attack to the mix, as reflected in the new single, “Warped,” which has taken off on rock radio.

“This album will probably be our biggest through the end of the year,” says Gene Sandbloom, KROQ-FM’s program director.

The Pumpkins’ “Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness,” a two-CD set due Oct. 24, brings the Chicago group together with producer Flood, who has created haunting atmospheres for U2, PJ Harvey and others.

“We are sooo waiting for this album,” Sandbloom says. “This is one of our biggest bands, right up there with the Chili Peppers.”

Also big on the list is Green Day’s follow-up to its 6-million seller “Dookie,” scheduled for Oct. 10.

* The question for Tha Dogg Pound’s album is not will it sell, but when ? Sidelined while Time Warner sorts out its policy regarding gangsta rap, the Death Row/Interscope release has been held up for weeks, though an Oct. 10 date is currently scheduled.

Though technically the album is a debut, it’s got rap’s biggest star, Snoop Doggy Dogg, attached to it as producer and guest performer.

“He’s an artist who has helped define what hip-hop and even what our station is,” says Bruce St. James, music director of KPWR-FM. “Everyone is clamoring for Tha Dogg Pound.”

Other star product expected to fight for the charts’ top spots include the Rolling Stones’ acoustic album (to be preceded by a single featuring the band’s long-overdue version of Bob Dylan’s “Like a Rolling Stone”), a new Melissa Etheridge album, Bonnie Raitt’s first-ever live album, a Madonna anthology collecting her best slow songs and a six-CD Tom Petty boxed set featuring 27 previously unreleased songs.

And a Beatles’ anthology, highlighted by two “new” recordings in which the three surviving members of the Fab Four back vocal tracks recorded as demos by John Lennon shortly before his 1980 murder, could have at least as much success as last year’s “Live From the BBC” set.

But those are the easy ones. In a year when such left-field smashes as Alanis Morissette, Hootie & the Blowfish, Silverchair and Blues Traveler have performed better than such seemingly sure-thing veterans as Rod Stewart, Elton John and, of course, Michael Jackson, programmers and retailers are closely watching for the next out-of-nowhere breakthroughs.

Two names mentioned by both KROQ’s Sandbloom and consultant Pollack are singer-songwriter Joan Osborne and the light-hearted Seattle band the Presidents of the United States, both of which have major-label debuts on the market.

Referring to Osborne’s witty song, “What If God Was One of Us,” which had already enjoyed some success on the softer Adult Album Alternative format, Sandbloom says, “We weren’t quite sure it was a KROQ record, and as a song comparing God to a normal person got a few complaints. But in just one week of airplay it jumped up our playlist and got a big response from our listeners. She’s going to be the next Sheryl Crow.”

And look for a few of the summer surprises to keep going strong, notably Selena’s posthumous “Dreaming of You,” Hootie & the Blowfish (which will have a new song on the coming album tied to the NBC hit “Friends”), Morissette and Silverchair. The “Dangerous Minds” soundtrack album, which features the current No. 1 single, Coolio’s “Gangsta’s Paradise,” also could have a strong fall run.

“Alanis and Silverchair are both selling insane quantities,” says Bob Bell, new-release buyer for the Wherehouse stores chain. “And both will probably continue right through Christmas.”