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NEWS ANALYSIS : India Slow, Unsure in Response to Hostage Crisis : Kashmir: New Delhi will release 24 separatists. But it refuses to free 15 Muslim militants on kidnapers’ list.

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TIMES STAFF WRITER

Since a few Western tourists fell into the hands of Islamic militants in the mountains of Kashmir in early July, India has appeared painfully slow and uncertain in dealing with a crisis that has highlighted its tenuous hold on the disputed region.

On Thursday, several days after the slaying of one hostage, the government made what could be its most important attempt yet to end the 6-week-old ordeal by announcing that it will soon release 24 jailed Kashmiri separatists.

K. B. Jandial, information director for the state of Jammu and Kashmir, said at a news briefing that the 24 did not include any of the 15 rebels whose freedom has been demanded by Al Faran, the shadowy group holding Donald Hutchings, 42, of Spokane, Wash., and three Europeans.

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Jandial refused to name the militants he said were cleared by a standing committee that routinely recommends prisoners for release. But whoever they are, claiming credit for the development might allow Al Faran to save face, thus paving the way to freedom for the Westerners.

The militant group, which Indian officials believe is an offshoot or cover for Islamic fundamentalist guerrillas they say are based in Muzaffarabad in the Pakistani-held part of Kashmir, has already killed a 27-year-old Norwegian it was holding.

In a note left in the dead man’s shirt pocket, Al Faran threatened to slay its four remaining captives unless the 15 militants, among them three prominent members of the Pakistan-based Harkat-ul-Ansar and five Pakistanis, were freed within 48 hours.

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By Monday, the day after the Norwegian hostage’s headless body was recovered, a crisis management group of the Kashmiri government formed earlier to monitor the hostage situation was discussing the possibility of a commando raid to free the other captives. But because of the remote, mountainous terrain where the Westerners are believed to be held, a rescue attempt would be very risky, Indian officials stress.

“Anyone operating in such circumstances wouldn’t stay in one place for long,” a high-ranking Indian intelligence officer said Thursday. “Even if you know the precise location, things can be difficult. Very difficult. You need to know the pinpoint spot, the number of militants, the condition of the hostages.”

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The government of Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao, who assumed direct responsibility for administering Kashmir earlier this year, chose at first to wait out the kidnapers, comforted by the knowledge that no foreigner taken captive since a widespread anti-Indian insurgency began in Kashmir in 1990 had been slain.

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Indian officials said that giving in to Al Faran’s demand would encourage more abductions. But ceding to the abductors could also carry dangerous political costs for Rao, who faces opposition from Hindu nationalists in parliamentary elections that must be held by spring.

Another contributing factor to India’s initial caution to act may be the fiasco that resulted from its last large-scale military operation in Kashmir. On May 11, in a standoff between 150 militants and several thousand Indian troops, one of the state’s most revered shrines burned.

The army and the militants blamed each other for the fire that razed the 15th-Century wooden mausoleum at Char-e-sharif. But the episode only further eroded support for India in the mostly Muslim state.

With the gruesome killing of the Norwegian, Indian officials would be free to discard the old scenario. Now, conceivably, they could assume the perils of a rescue mission and justify the outcome, whatever it is, by saying they acted to prevent the slaying of the four remaining captives.

But in a radio interview on Wednesday, Kashmir Gov. K. V. Krishna Rao said “it wouldn’t be advisable to do such an operation” unless “you are absolutely sure that you can retrieve these people without any harm to them.”

Rao, who is unrelated to India’s prime minister, said the key to freeing the hostages lies in putting diplomatic pressure on Pakistan, which India claims is responsible for the armed insurgency that has claimed about 20,000 lives in the state. Pakistan says it provides the Muslim rebels with political and moral support but not arms.

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The wild card in the drama being played out in the Himalayas is the exact intent of Al Faran. On Wednesday, it promised a statement in several days explaining “why and how the foreigners were abducted, as well as the later consequences.”

“We fully know that the hands of Big Boss are long,” Al Faran said, in what could be a cryptic reference to India or America. “But Allah is greater and more gracious than it.”

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