THE TIMES POLL : Irvine Still Adjusting to Fiscal Crisis

IRVINE —  They’re fearing the fallout these days, here at ground zero of the Orange County bankruptcy crisis.

With more millions than any other local community sunk into the county’s failed investment pool, Irvine residents say they are willing to raise taxes to offset the bankruptcy’s probable repercussions on their schools and city services, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

“There’s no way we can get out of this mess without raising taxes,” said Arlene Hoop, 80, a retired social worker who was among those surveyed. “We’ve gotten into the mess and we have to get ourselves out of it.”

The portfolio’s losses--which ultimately totaled $1.7 billion--forced the county into bankruptcy Dec. 6.

In the poll of 600 adults, residents of one of the nation’s original planned communities overwhelmingly cited the financial crises of the county and city as the most troubling aspect these days of life in Irvine.

Between its city government and school district, the town of 120,000 people had more than $300 million deposited in the county investment portfolio when it collapsed in December. Its third public governing body, the Irvine Ranch Water District, had another $300 million invested.

And here, among the neat homes, parks and model schools of this leafy Orange County suburb, the financial debacle has hit home in an uncomfortably personal way, according to the survey, conducted March 12-15 by Mark Baldassare and Associates.

The school district had more than $105 million invested in the fund. District officials are planning $3 million in cuts from next school year’s $100-million budget. Thirty school administrators and 120 temporary teachers have received notices that they may be laid off.

Overall, 41% of Irvine residents said they are aware of cuts in local services or school programs that will directly affect them or their families. Of those with children in Irvine schools, three out of four expect a direct impact on their households. And many say they would be willing to contribute their time or money to help the schools stave off any negative effects.

Louis Baltierra, 44, the father of 7- and 13-year-old boys, worries that the crisis will force the school district to lay off teachers or cut back on the innovative arts, music and science programs that enrich the lives of its students.

If it does, said Baltierra, a counselor supervisor for the state Department of Rehabilitation, “it could have a major impact on my sons’ futures.”

Many others concur. About two-thirds of Irvine residents surveyed--and a similar number of Irvine registered voters--said they favor a tax increase to keep schools at their current funding levels. Among those with children attending Irvine schools, the percentage was even higher: Nearly three out of four surveyed said they supported raising taxes to maintain funding for public schools.

“My belief is it wouldn’t hurt anybody to raise the sales tax half a cent,” said Renzo Marini, 46, a machine shop supervisor who has lived in Irvine for six years. “I don’t agree with raising property taxes, but I would support a sales tax to help bail us out.”

In an earlier Times Orange County Poll conducted in January, 53% of those surveyed countywide backed a tax increase to sustain school programs. The County Board of Supervisors has scheduled a final vote Tuesday on whether to place a half-cent sales tax increase on a special June 27 ballot; the new revenues would go to the county’s general fund.

The new poll of Irvine residents found strong support for a tax increase to keep police and fire protection at current levels, with 57% overall expressing approval. In the January poll, 48% countywide supported a tax increase to maintain such services.

More than four in 10 of those surveyed--and 58% with school-age children--said they would be willing to pitch in to do chores at local schools if maintenance workers had to be laid off because of the crisis. Forty percent of all respondents--and 63% of parents--said they would donate cash to the schools as long as the money was earmarked to replace funds lost in the fiscal crisis.

“I’m struggling, just as much as the school districts or cities are,” said Rusty Guinther, 48, a real estate salesman who lives in the Turtle Rock neighborhood. “But if there’s a need in the school, if they need a box of Kleenex or a box of pencils, I’ll work a little harder to get it for them. I can do that.”

Guinther added a proviso, however: He would help out, he said, as long as he is convinced that the school district has first done what it can to cut costs.

Others, though, such as Marilyne Dwyer, 40, who moved from Tustin to Irvine in October and does not have children in the schools, ask why they should have to contribute more to help extricate the district and the city from the crisis.

“Let the county supervisors and whoever else got us into this situation dip into their own pockets,” says Dwyer, an office manager for a mortgage banking firm. “If they need someone to clean the toilets at the school district now, let the supervisors clean the toilets. You just don’t go to Vegas and gamble with money you don’t have.”

Irvine residents, many of whom noted that the caliber of the schools helped draw them to the city, clearly fear the worst in the wake of the bankruptcy. More than eight in 10 expect the quality of the Irvine Unified School District to drop, with 43% predicting that the crisis will hurt the schools “a lot.”

Some say they fear the impact of the crisis on schools, even though their own children are grown and gone.

“I’m very concerned about the schools,” said Hoop, the retired social worker and onetime school volunteer. “Just from a practical point of view, that’s one of the selling points of this community, real estate-wise. I’m also extremely concerned about the schools, period.”

Before the county’s financial problems, the poll showed, residents prided themselves on the reputation of the district, with three in four saying Irvine schools were better than those in the rest of the county. In the aftermath of the bankruptcy, the community fears that change is inevitable. A year from now, only 46% expect Irvine schools to outperform those throughout the county, with 37% believing they will be about equal to those elsewhere.

Joyce Payne, 50, said she worries that Irvine school officials will be forced to curtail or drop such extras as the district’s excellent sports programs.

“Sports help keep kids out of trouble,” said Payne, an executive secretary whose two stepsons are following her own two children through the Irvine school system. “Even without the bankruptcy, we already had to pay for sports camps and other things. I’m afraid the costs will go up now, or they may just decide to cancel some sports.”

Still, only a few have seriously considered pulling their children from public schools and switching them to private. More than eight in 10 said they had not considered that option.

Along with the schools, Irvine residents expect a negative impact on their quality of life, with one in four saying it will be hurt “a lot” and nearly half predicting it will be affected “somewhat.” But many also expressed faith in the city’s ability to emerge from the crisis.

Overall, 75% of residents have a very favorable view of Irvine, the poll showed. Half, in fact, said they would rather live in Irvine than anywhere else in the world.

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High Anxiety

The county’s fiscal crisis has penetrated the civic mind of Irvine more so than the rest of the county. The city’s residents also see serious future harm to local public schools.

As for the impact of Orange County’s investment fund losses, have you heard or read about any cuts in local services or public school programs that will directly affect you and your household this year? Yes Orange County: 22% Irvine: 41% Child in Irvine school: 73% ***

Before the financial crisis, how do you think Irvine schools compared to schools in the rest of Orange County? One year from now, how do you think Irvine schools will compare to schools in the rest of the county? IRVINE ADULTS

Before crisis One Year from now Better 76% 46% Same 12% 37% Worse 0% 5% Don’t know 12% 12%

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CHILD IN IRVINE SCHOOL

Before crisis One Year from now Better 91% 56% Same 5% 35% Worse 0% 4% Don’t know 4% 5%

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Helping out

Many Irvine parents who have children in the public schools are willing to volunteer time and contribute money:

Irvine school maintenance workers may have to be laid off because of the budget crisis. Would you be willing to volunteer your time to perform maintenance work, such as cutting lawns and painting, at Irvine schools?

Irvine adults Child in Irvine school Yes 41% 58% No 56% 38% Don’t know 3% 4%

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Would you be willing to donate money to Irvine public schools specifically to help make up for funds lost in the financial crisis?

Irvine Child in adults Irvine school Yes, $100 20% 41% Yes, $75 1% 3% Yes, $50 6% 7% Yes, $25 8% 7% Yes, less than $25 5% 5% No 50% 28% Don’t know 10% 9%

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Investment Grade

Despite local troubles and difficulty among many in making house payments, most Irvine adults--homeowners and renters alike--still think a home in the city is a good investment.

In general, do you think that buying a home in Irvine today is an excellent, good, only fair or a poor investment?

Irvine adults All Owners Renters Excellent 19% 22% 16% Good 45% 45% 45% Only fair 26% 25% 26% Poor 8% 6% 10% Don’t know 2% 2% 3%

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Percentage of Irvine adults having a hard time meeting mortgage or rent payments: Child in school: 55% No child in school: 47% Owners: 48% Renters: 55% Source: Times Orange County Poll

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Tax Support Is Conditional

Two-thirds of Irvine adults favor the basic concept of raising taxes to maintain funding for public schools. That support dwindles to less than half if the levy being increased is the property tax. Results were similar for voters.

Would you favor or oppose raising taxes to maintain the current level of funding for public schools? Favor: 64% Oppose: 32% Don’t know: 4% ***

Would you favor or oppose raising property taxes in Irvine to maintain the current level of funding for Irvine public schools? Favor: 45% Oppose: 50% Don’t know: 5% Source: Times Orange County Poll

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The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The telephone survey of 600 adult residents of Irvine was conducted March 12-15 on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of listed and unlisted numbers. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4%.