THE TIMES POLL : Anti-Illegal Immigration Prop. 187 Keeps 2-to-1 Edge

With California voters increasingly convinced that illegal immigration is one of the major problems facing the state, Proposition 187, the emotionally divisive anti-illegal immigration initiative, continues to hold a strong lead in the Los Angeles Times Poll.

Less than a month before the election, the get-tough measure is favored by a margin of 59% to 33% among likely voters--a 26-point margin. Among all registered voters, the split is 61% to 32%.

The margin was 33 points among likely voters in mid-September, when the Times Poll reported a 62% to 29% lead. Registered voters were split by a similar margin.

With the campaign heating up, interest in Proposition 187 is now as high as it is for the governor’s race between Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown and Republican incumbent Pete Wilson, whose opposition to illegal immigration is a hallmark of his reelection bid.

Moreover, nearly twice as many registered voters said Proposition 187 would motivate them to cast ballots as would the U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Republican Rep. Mike Huffington.

Despite the efforts of a wide-scale coalition of mainstream education, health and law enforcement organizations to defeat the measure, Proposition 187 continues to win majority support among Democrats as well as Republicans, and voters of both sexes and all age groups and income levels.

Although some of the staunchest opposition to the measure has come from Cardinal Roger M. Mahony and organized labor leaders, poll results suggest that they have had limited influence. The initiative is favored 56% to 37% among Catholic voters and 55% to 34% among union members.

The Times Poll found that arguments against the measure seemed to have little impact on voter attitudes. Support for Proposition 187 remained steady after three pro and three con arguments were read to poll respondents. If anything, pro-187 arguments appeared to sway voters more than such anti-187 arguments as the possibility of a public health hazard because illegal immigrants would be denied immunizations against communicable diseases.

“Many people have made up their minds,� said Assistant Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus.

Pinkus cautioned that about one-third of voters remain unfamiliar with the details of Proposition 187--which would terminate most government services to illegal immigrants and require local health, education and law enforcement officials to turn in the names of suspected illegal immigrants to federal authorities. Among likely voters who were familiar with Proposition 187, the margin of support is 45% to 25%.

A second high-profile, send-a-message measure, the “three strikes� crime initiative, also continues to draw strong support in the Times Poll. Proposition 184, which calls for prison terms of 25 years to life for third-time felony offenders, is favored by a 58%-32% margin among likely voters.

But Proposition 186, which calls for a state-run health system, has failed to find a constituency. More than 50% of likely voters are unfamiliar with the single-payer health initiative when just read the ballot label. When they were read a synopsis, the split against it was 64% to 25%.

The closest race among the major November initiatives involves Proposition 188, the tobacco industry-backed measure to establish statewide regulations on smoking restrictions. Half of likely voters said they were familiar with the measure and those voters split 3 to 2 against Proposition 188.

After being read an explanation summarized from the ballot pamphlet mailed to all California voters, likely voters favored it by a 49% to 43% margin.

The summary read to poll respondents, like the title and summary in the state’s ballot pamphlet, does not make clear that one of the prime backers of the initiative is tobacco giant Philip Morris. Political analysts believe that voters would be more likely to reject the measure, which would repeal local no-smoking laws, if they knew of its backing from the tobacco industry.

The Times Poll, conducted by telephone Oct. 8 through Tuesday, questioned 1,232 registered voters, 821 of whom are considered to be likely to vote Nov. 8. The poll’s margin of sampling error for registered voters is 3 percentage points in either direction. For likely voters it is 4 points in either direction. Margins of error for smaller subgroups of voters may be larger.

The poll’s results make clear that illegal immigration, which has begun receiving widespread attention in news stories, editorials and in TV ads touting Wilson’s reelection bid, is a hot topic among Californians.

Among all registered voters, more people cited illegal immigration than either education or the economy as the state’s most pressing issue. Only crime and unemployment ranked higher.

In a Times Poll last month, crime also was cited as the state’s most important problem. But unemployment, the economy, education and immigration were all clustered together far behind.

Last month, only 6% of voters in The Times Poll said Proposition 187 would particularly motivate them to cast ballots--compared to 19% for the governor’s race. In the new poll, the ballot measure and the governor’s race each were cited by 19% of registered voters.

Among the 19% motivated to vote by Proposition 187, 58% favor the initiative and 40% oppose it.

Support for Proposition 187 is particularly strong among Republican voters--75% to 19%--andwhite voters--64% to 28%. But the measure also continues to lead among Democrats--52% to 40%--and independents--57% to 34%.

The only two major blocs of registered voters not favoring Proposition 187 are liberal Democrats, opposed by a 51%-44% margin, and Latinos, who opposed it by a small margin (48% to 46%). Last month, registered Latinos favored the measure by a 52%-42% margin.

In recent interviews, leading opponents of Proposition 187 have said they are convinced they can still turn public opinion around if they can raise enough money to mount a significant statewide advertising campaign. Earlier this week, an anti-Proposition 187 coalition that includes the state PTA, school boards association and teachers association, began running its first radio spot attacking the ballot measure.

However, The Times Poll, seeking to gauge the influence of various pro and con arguments, found no significant shift in support after six arguments were read to poll respondents.

Before the arguments were read, likely voters favored the measure 59% to 33%. After the arguments were read, the margin was 60% to 32%.

“The arguments made no impact,� Pinkus said. “They reinforced people voting for Proposition 187.�

The strongest argument in favor of the measure was one stating it would save the state millions of dollars a year by stopping illegal immigrants from getting health, education and child welfare benefits. Nearly 60% of likely voters said that argument would make them more likely to vote for Proposition 187.

In contrast, an argument that the initiative might cost California billions of dollars in federal aid since some of its provisions violate federal law resulted in only 26% of likely voters saying they were less likely to vote for the ballot measure.

Pro-187 arguments that illegal immigration is hurting California and that the initiative would require law enforcement agencies to check the immigrant status of those arrested for crimes each led more than 50% of poll respondents to say they were more likely to vote for the measure.

Anti-187 arguments that the measure could cause a public health hazard and an increase in juvenile crime if hundreds of thousands of children are ejected from public schools led far fewer voters--roughly one-third in each case--to say they were less likely to cast ballots for the measure.

“I realize we’re talking about kids and I have grandkids and great-grandkids myself,� said poll respondent Albert Brower, 80, of Sacramento. “But I’m against a wide-open door to the welfare business in our state.

“I pretty much have got my mind made up,� said Brower, a Baptist minister and a registered Republican.

A Catholic Toluca Lake resident said he favors Proposition 187 regardless of the position of Mahony and many personal friends. “Anyone in this country illegally should get nothing,� said the 43-year-old travel agent.

However, some poll respondents who favor Proposition 187 said they are open-minded.

“My kids losing almost all of their school programs because the state of California has no money is a big swayer for me,� said Marilyn Bailey, 39, a printer from Visalia. “But one thing I hadn’t heard about before was the lack of immunizations for illegals.

“I may change my mind,� said Bailey, a Democrat. “My goodness, I don’t want new babies to go without shots.�

THE TIMES POLL

How They Would Vote

The anti-illegal immigration initiative, Proposition 187, continues to hold a strong lead among likely California voters. Of the other initiatives, the closest race involves the smoking initiative, Proposition 188.

Among likely voters

PROPOSITION 187

The Illegal Aliens Ineligibility for Public Services, Verification and Reporting Initiative

When label is read:

Vote for: 45%

Vote against: 25%

Don’t know: 30%

*

When description is read:

Vote for: 59%

Vote against: 33%

Don’t know: 8%

Among registered voters

Do the following arguments make you more or less likely to vote for Proposition 187?

The measure would save the state million of dollars a year by stopping illegal immigrants from getting health, education and child welfare benefits.

More likely: 58%

Less likely: 10%

No effect: 29%

Don’t know: 3%

Denying illegal immigrants prenatal care and immunization against communicable diseases could create a public health hazard.

More likely: 21%

Less likely: 33%

No effect: 42%

Don’t know: 4%

The initiative calls for the ejection of hundred of thousands of children from public schools.

More likely: 19%

Less likely: 29%

No effect: 46%

Don’t know: 6%

The initiative would require local and state law enforcement agencies to check the immigrant status of those arrested for crimes.

More likely: 57%

Less likely: 8%

No effect: 33%

Don’t know: 2%

OTHER PROPOSITIONS

Among likely voters 1. Proposition label: Proposition 184, the Increased Sentences, Repeat Offenders Initiative Statute.

Preference: Vote for

When label is read: 42%

When description is read: 58%

*

Preference: Vote against

When label is read: 18%

When description is read: 32%

*

Preference: Don’t know

When label is read: 40%

When description is read: 10%

*2. Proposition label: Proposition 186, The Health Services, Taxes, Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Preference: Vote for

When label is read: 15%

When description is read: 25%

*

Preference: Vote against

When label is read: 31%

When description is read: 64%

*

Preference: Don’t know

When label is read: 54%

When description is read: 11%

*3. Proposition label: Proposition 188, the Smoking and Tobacco Products, Local Preemption, Statewide Regulation Initiative.

Preference: Vote for

When label is read: 20%

When description is read: 49%

*

Preference: Vote against

When label is read: 31%

When description is read: 43%

*

Preference: Don’t know

When label is read: 49%

When description is read: 8%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of California voters

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,641 adults statewide, by telephone, Oct. 8-11. Included in the sample are 1,232 registered voters and 821 likely voters. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform more closely with census figures for sex, race, age and education. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.