El Toro Issue Could Torpedo Local Politicians : Elections: Candidates discuss familiar themes of economy, crime and taxes, but views on Marine base could be a test of leadership abilities.

Over and over again, the candidates who declared their intentions to run for local offices last week sounded similar themes.

Whether they were Democrat or Republican, running for the Board of Supervisors or the state Assembly, they promised to fight crime, improve the economy and reject tax increases.

One issue was not mentioned but is likely to have more long-term impact on Orange County’s economy than Disneyland: what to do with El Toro Marine Corps Air Station.

In the broader view of issues facing California, the political fight over whether to develop a commercial airport at the base when it closes by 1999 might seem to most candidates beyond the purview of the offices they are seeking.

But several local political leaders suggest that the candidates think again.

“The question will come up: ‘How do you feel about El Toro?’ said Lincoln Club President Doy Henley. “The answer will be a very political answer. It could be interesting, couldn’t it? It’s going to be politics honed to its very sharpest edge.”

Pollster Mark Baldassare, chairman of UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology, said that for the candidates in this year’s elections, the El Toro issue will be a test of their leadership abilities.

“To the extent that politicians are associated with the success or failures of El Toro, there will be impact on political careers and on elections,” Baldassare predicted.

The future of the Marine base has created a countywide political undercurrent that will only intensify as the county’s El Toro Reuse Planning Authority board begins dealing with the sticky issue of whether to put a commercial airport at the base. The political pressure also will be applied by pro-airport activists who are threatening to circulate petitions for a countywide referendum on El Toro on the Nov. 8 ballot.

The future of El Toro is likely to be a major issue in such races as:

* The three seats on the County Board of Supervisors, particularly in the hotly contested race in the 2nd District to replace Supervisor Harriett M. Wieder, who is stepping down. The winners will automatically become members of the El Toro Reuse Planning Authority that will pick the base conversion plan.

* The 70th Assembly District, where incumbent Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach) is stepping down. The district includes cities that are ardently in favor or vehemently opposed to a commercial airport at El Toro.

* City council races on the November ballot, particularly in such South County cities as Dana Point, San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano, where current council members have generally stayed out of the campaign waged by other South County cities to oppose a commercial airport.

At first glance, the 4,700-acre military base would not seem a likely point of debate in the 70th Assembly District, since the base is outside the district’s boundaries. In addition, the state Legislature is not expected to be a key decision-maker in Orange County’s base conversion plan.

But four of the five candidates seeking the GOP nomination in the 70th district have some sort of tie to the El Toro issue. For instance, Irvine Councilman Barry J. Hammond sits on the El Toro Reuse Planning Authority board. Another candidate, Marilyn Brewer, is an aide to Board of Supervisors Chairman Thomas F. Riley, who chairs the El Toro board.

Two other candidates, Thomas G. Reinecke and Phillip B. Greer, are members of the Lincoln Club, which is led by members of the business community who want voters to decide El Toro’s future on a countywide ballot measure in November.

The fifth candidate, Bruce E. Peotter, is the only one without apparent connection to the issue.

“It’s going to be a very dicey issue for these people . . . because they are going to have to balance one set of voters against another set,” Ferguson said.

Said Wieder: “It’s a once-in-a-lifetime issue for the county. The response on that issue will reflect the (candidates’) knowledge on the big issue and not just the issues in their district.”

Wieder and Ferguson predicted that the El Toro question will come up during candidate forums because the future of the base is an issue that is on the minds of many Orange County voters.

Wieder likened the El Toro issue to questions about abortion rights, and Ferguson said it is like being asked about the Equal Rights Amendment: Voters want to know where the candidates stand.

“Public officials, whatever their role is, appear to the voters to have some degree of knowledge and influence,” Wieder said. And with that comes the responsibility to at least have an opinion on the issue, she said.

“I dislike public officeholders who hide behind the facade of that’s not within my territory,” she said.

Riley, who will chair the El Toro agency until he leaves office at the end of the year, is among the few who argue that El Toro does not have to become part of the campaign rhetoric.

“The airport issue will be settled before they take office” in January, 1995, Riley said optimistically.

Given the current political climate, in which polls have shown voters dissatisfied with the lack of leadership on the base conversion issue, that is not likely to happen.

Baldassare said El Toro could be the defining issue that separates the leaders from the rest of the pack.

“It’s an opportunity for somebody to say, ‘I have a good plan and this is how we get there,’ ” he said.

“People sense we need all the help we can get at all the levels of government to move the county’s economy forward,” Baldassare added. “It doesn’t matter if the (officeholders) are at the congressional level, or the state level, or the city level, or the county level. This is where (leadership) will show itself.”