Clinton in Final Push for NAFTA : Trade: The President tells a small-business group that prosperity hinges on pact with Mexico and Canada. The vote will be close, as lawmakers slowly take sides.

WASHINGTON —  With the ranks of uncommitted lawmakers dwindling rapidly, President Clinton embarked Monday on a final push for the North American Free Trade Agreement, declaring to small-business proprietors that only by expanding its markets can the nation increase its prosperity.

“There is no way any wealthy country in this world can increase jobs and incomes without increasing the number of people who buy that nation’s products and services,” Clinton told 400 small-business leaders at Washington’s Museum of American History. “It is clear and self-evident.”

To reassure doubters, he emphasized that the United States could pull out of the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada with six months’ notice. “If all the naysayers turn out to be right, the treaty gives us a right to withdraw in six months,” he said. “Why don’t we just wait and see whether we’re right or they’re right?”

After intense lobbying during a four-day congressional recess, a smattering of lawmakers announced how they intend to vote when the agreement is taken up by the House on Wednesday. The number of new yes votes outnumbered the new noes, but they still were not enough to decide the outcome, and White House aides disagreed on how close to victory they had come.

On Monday night, the President himself acknowledged that the vote is going to be close. “I think we’re going to make it,” he said. “But it’s going to be another landslide in paradise.”

One aide said that advocates of the pact can only win if some House members who have declared their intent to vote against the agreement reverse themselves. “Some noes have to flip to yes,” the aide said, adding that he expects to see several last-minute conversions.

Another White House official asserted that supporters are within 10 votes of victory. He said that some votes are likely to shift from the no to the yes column but maintained that the Administration would win even if none shift.

Meanwhile, Administration officials said that they have made progress toward an agreement to repatriate to Mexico a large number of illegal Mexican immigrants currently serving time in U.S. prisons--an action that could win the Administration several votes for the agreement, which would end virtually all trade barriers among Canada, Mexico and the United States over 15 years.

Rep. Jay C. Kim (R-Diamond Bar) last week urged President Clinton to seek the repatriation agreement. There are signs that other votes from California, Texas and Florida also might be swayed.

Leaders of the effort to win passage of the pact said that the most important new commitments are from Rep. Norman Y. Mineta (D-San Jose), Rep. Hamilton Fish Jr. (R-N.Y.), Rep. Marge Roukema (R-N.J.), Rep. Romano L. Mazzoli (D-Ky.), and Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.).

But other key votes headed to the opposition, including Rep. Thomas H. Andrews (D-Me.) and Rep. Robert G. Torricelli (D-N.J.). “They were blows,” said Rep. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.), a leader of the effort to win passage.

In announcing his decision, Mineta cited Clinton’s pledge that NAFTA could be abandoned if it does not work out.

“There is a provision in the agreement that allows any country to opt out with six months’ notice. If this agreement turns out to be a bad deal for our country and for working men and women in the United States, I will support withdrawal . . . “ Mineta said.

As Clinton continued his lobbying effort through one-on-one sessions and meetings with small groups of lawmakers, the Administration focused its attention on nervous freshmen, old-line Democrats with ties to labor and members of the Congressional Black Caucus. Rep. Maxine Water (D-Los Angeles), a longtime Clinton supporter who has been leaning against the pact, is in the last of those groups.

In back-to-back meetings with reporters, Vice President Al Gore and House Majority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) offered competing assessments of the outcome of the vote but agreed that, two days before the House acts, the issue remains extremely tight.

“It’s very close,” Gore said, giving the balance of power to the undecided members. “We have the momentum.”

But Gephardt, who is fighting enactment of the agreement despite his position in the House Democratic leadership, declared that “today there are more votes against” the pact. He added, however, that “there are enough undecideds that it could go either way.”

Gore expressed confidence that Republicans on whom Clinton is counting will not back away at the last moment and decide to vote against the agreement rather than deliver their support to a cause championed by the Democratic President.

Gephardt indicated how crucial Republican support is for Clinton on the issue. He said that--with the Republicans saying they can deliver no more than 118 votes for the agreement and Democrats promising no more than 100--there is no room to spare. If all members of the House vote on the issue, 218 votes will be needed to win passage of legislation to implement the agreement.

Gore took pains to clarify the White House pledge to tread gingerly in 1994 congressional elections when it comes to opposing Republicans who support the President on the trade deal.

He said that if a Republican member of the House is attacked by a Democratic challenger on the basis of a vote in favor of the pact, “we will defend that vote and say the attacks coming from whatever quarter are misguided and wrong,” the vice president said.

At the same time, he said, the White House would not necessarily avoid campaigning for the Democrat, invoking other issues. “The President is not going to say, ‘I’m with the Republican,’ ” Gore said.

The decisions of the 23 representatives from Florida may be known today after a morning caucus. The state’s citrus, vegetable and sugar industries have been given special dispensations to win their support, yet several members of the delegation remain on the fence.

At his meeting with the small-business group, Clinton said that he already was on his “fourth or fifth or sixth conversation” with some lawmakers. Clinton is meeting with a bipartisan group of 15 governors this morning in hopes of swaying wavering House members from their states.

Clinton met with several undecided members of Congress, including Rep. Thomas C. Sawyer (D-Ohio) and two freshman Republicans from New York’s Long Island: David A. Levy and Rick A. Lazio. Levy backed up White House assertions that the tide of public opinion--or at least vocal public opinion--has begun to shift on the issue.

“For the first time, I am starting to hear from pro-NAFTA constituents in the district,” Levy told reporters after meeting with Clinton.

Carl Stern, a Justice Department spokesman, said that the Administration has taken “a significant step along the process” of reaching an agreement with Mexico about the return of prisoners.

The plan would be initially to take nonviolent first offenders who have served some part of their time in U.S. prisons and send them back to Mexico to rehabilitation programs there. Over time, the program could be expanded to more serious offenders, although Stern noted that first offenders actually constitute the bulk of illegal immigrants currently serving time in U.S. prisons.

“I don’t expect to see the day when triple hatchet murderers would be going back,” he said. “If a person commits a serious offense against the United States or the people of the United States, the United States wants to punish them here.”

The Administration, meanwhile, dismissed as groundless a claim by Texas billionaire Ross Perot, an opponent of the agreement, that approval of the trade pact would eliminate restrictions on Mexicans who receive temporary visas to work in this country. The U.S. trade representative’s office said that existing visa requirements would remain in place.

Times staff writers David Lauter and Ronald Brownstein contributed to this story.

* JOB LOSS FEAR: Some workers who came from Mexico fear NAFTA will send their jobs across the border. B1

Comparing the 3 Nations

The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement would join Mexico, Canada and the United States in the world’s largest economic market encompassing more than 360 million people and more than $6 trillion in combined domestic product.

MEXICO Economy: Mix of state-owned, private plants and agriculture Population: 92 million Labor force: 26 million Organized labor % of labor force: 35% Jobless rate: 18% Minimum wage: $4.60/day Literacy rate: 87% Per capita GDP: $3,200 Gross domestic product: $236 billion CANADA Economy: Affluent, high-tech industrial society Population: 27 million Labor force: 13 million Organized labor % of labor force: 31% Jobless rate: 10.6% Minimum wage: $536/week Literacy rate: 99% Per capita GDP: $19,400 Gross domestic product: $560 billion U.S. Economy: Most technologically advanced nation in the world Population: 256 million Labor force: 127 million Organized labor % of labor force: 16% Jobless rate: 6.8% Minimum wage: $4.25/hour Literacy rate: 98% Per capita GDP: $22,500 Gross domestic product: $5.1 trillion *

What they produce

MEXICO CANADA U.S. Services 55% 66% 70% Agriculture 8% 3% 2% Manufacturing 23% 19% 20% Other 14% 4% 8%

Note: Numbers do not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Sources: Commerce Department, World Factbook, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Times staff and wire reports