Alarcon’s Victory in the 7th District Was No Safe Bet After All : The Valley’s first Latino City Council member won in the ethnically diverse area by drawing votes from conservative Anglos and African-Americans.

A few months ago there was no way a Latino could be elected to the 7th District City Council seat being vacated by Ernani Bernardi--so said the political experts.

Richard Alarcon, now the Valley’s first Latino council member, could never beat Lyle Hall, a tall, good-looking ex-firefighter and firefighters’ union president.

For the architects of the 7th District--the Latino activists who threatened to sue the city unless there were more districts drawn for Latinos--it looked like Alarcon’s win was just as they planned.

But guess what. This was a big upset.

The 7th District, which stretches from Sylmar to Sun Valley and includes Arleta and Pacoima, historically has been conservative, including the semirural and Anglo blue-collar communities of Sylmar and Sunland-Tujunga. Under the threat of a lawsuit similar to one filed against the county supervisors, the City Council drew districts that would assure that minority communities were not fractured to prevent minority representation.

By population, the new 7th District is more than 70% Latino. But it is only 30% Latino by voter . Most Latinos do not register to vote, and those who do vote infrequently.

This put Hall on the pole position with a big bloc of Anglo votes in an area that finds itself, regrettably, more and more racially divided with each passing day.

So at first glance, Alarcon’s “safe” Latino seat was and is really no such thing, because older white people turn out to vote like clockwork in municipal elections. These “high-propensity voters” participate in elections that most Angelenos are unaware of or don’t care about, changing the base of actual voters and having a disproportionate effect on outcomes.

The ethnic diversity of the northeast San Fernando Valley makes for some interesting politics. The 7th District is a mix of Anglos, African-Americans, Latinos and a growing Asian community.

Typically, the Anglo homeowners bought their two-bedroom-and-a-swimming-pool slice of the American Dream in the ‘50s and ‘60s and are terrorized by crime and violence--which many associate with the growing immigrant population.

This is also true for the shrinking African-American population. Most Angelenos are unaware of this once large and thriving black community miles from the inner city.

Shortly after World War II, housing tracts in Pacoima gave returning black servicemen the opportunity for home ownership. They vote more like their Anglo neighbors than inner-city dwellers. They, too, have witnessed a steady decline in the quality of life in their neighborhoods. And though many never say so publicly, they, too, blame this loss on the new immigrants. Pacoima residents tend to be law-and-order-minded and more conservative than inner-city residents. Polling shows more than 80% favor the death penalty and support lower taxes.

In the 7th, the African-American community leadership, with the only black candidate out of the race in the primary, fractured. This hurt Hall. White politicians in this area, such as Assemblyman Richard Katz and Congressman Howard Berman, can depend on the unified support of the African-American community. This will surprise only Anglos who think minorities in general support minorities. In fact, racial tensions between blacks and Latinos rival those between themselves and whites.

The code words for the shared anger are the same: gangs, graffiti and most cruelly language, or “English only.” Perhaps the most unifying theme in the northeast Valley and the Valley as a whole is the call for the breakup of the L.A. school district, and this in many cases is just thinly veiled intolerance for people who have yet to learn to speak English.

Alarcon refused to be painted as strictly a “Latino” candidate. While working hard in the Latino community, he took political positions that made him acceptable to Anglos. He opposed allowing a Phoenix House drug-treatment center in Lake View Terrace and (reluctantly) favored the breakup of the school district. While Alarcon had the backing of the East Side establishment, as a Valley native he knew what it would take to win.

So in the 7th Council District, it was the conservative Anglos and African-Americans who held the keys to electoral success. The election was Hall’s to lose because conventional wisdom said the Anglos would vote for one of their own and against the young Latino.

Now the question is what Alarcon must do to get reelected. He has four years to make good on promises to get the district a “fair share” of city services like police protection, recreational facilities and jobs. And he has four years to lead the war on crime, gangs and graffiti--the Big Three in the Anglo community.

However, some issues are out of his and the City Council’s control. And while he may single-handedly get 100 more cops for the 7th, it may not be enough. Life will get difficult for him as the real antagonists get their teeth into him on issues like immigration and English-only laws--ugly issues that refuse to die in the northeast Valley.

There are many articulate and aggressive activists in and around the 7th who will make it their full-time job to push their agenda. Count on the African-American community to come to the table with a clear, unified voice on the needs of their neighborhoods in Pacoima. As the swing voters in this district, they will make new alliances on any given day and on any given issue.