REGIONAL REPORT : Airports Fear Rivalry From Converted Bases : Development: Officials are afraid Pentagon cutbacks will spark costly, damaging competition among operators.

Back in the not too distant past, when the Southern California economy was robust and passenger demand for air travel seemed limitless, regional airport planners worried--almost wistfully--about the day when new terminals and runways would be needed.

Now, they really are worried.

Airport directors, particularly in the Inland Empire, are watching nervously as the Pentagon creates a glut of airport sites with the planned and proposed closings of three military air bases in Southern California, as well as cutbacks at a fourth that would allow for joint military-civilian uses.

The conversion of any of them into commercial airports could have an impact, albeit minor, on the sprawling Los Angeles airport system, which includes Ontario International, Van Nuys and Palmdale airports, as well as Los Angeles International.

Although there is little question that additional airports will be needed at some point to handle anticipated growth in regional air travel, some airport officials fear that pell-mell conversion of these military bases to commercial airports could result in financially damaging competition among airport operators.

And in a weak economy, with airlines trimming back operations in the face of slowed passenger demand, the promised jobs and revenues that commercial airports usually generate may prove to be illusory.

“There are only so many aviation and cargo facilities to go around, and no one wins when there’s too many,” said Jim Monger, San Bernardino County aviation director.

For Monger and others, the list of potential airports is daunting.

In San Bernardino County, officials are considering an international airport plan for Norton Air Force Base, which is scheduled to shut down in early 1994. At George Air Force Base, only 33 miles away, competition between two would-be airport operators with vastly different development plans has prompted Air Force officials to delay transferring control of the base, closed in 1992, until the region decides on a single legal entity to handle the conversion.

Riverside County officials are discussing commercial airport possibilities at March Air Force Base, which could be scaled back dramatically if the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission approves the Pentagon’s defense cutback plans. March Air Force Base is 15 miles from Norton.

Also on the Pentagon’s chopping block are the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station in Orange County and Miramar Naval Air Station in San Diego County, although officials say it is unlikely both would be closed simultaneously. Each base has its strong defenders for continued military operations, but both locations would be aggressively promoted for commercial airport development if closed.

Another potential airport site, but not in competition with the Inland Empire sites, is Point Mugu Naval Air Station in Ventura County, where the Navy and government officials are discussing joint, military-commercial use of the facility.

Airport directors complain that the military has plans to close too many Southern California bases in rapid succession without giving the Federal Aviation Administration and regional planners enough time to decide where additional airports will be needed.

Unless there is an overall airport development plan, they say, these abandoned military bases will probably be converted to commercial airports, passenger demand will not materialize, and local airport authorities will have gone into debt only to find themselves saddled with failing enterprises.

“Everyone could be fighting for the same customer,” said Jack Driscoll, general manager of the Los Angeles Department of Airports. “I am sure San Bernardino will be trying to steal some business from Ontario (International Airport),” which is managed by the city of Los Angeles.

“(San Bernardino officials) have already been trying to market themselves to Southwest Airlines to move out of Ontario. I suspect that’s going to be the game that’s going to be played,” Driscoll added.

Driscoll said that he is not among those wringing his hands over the Pentagon’s plans to shut down several Southern California bases.

As the primary international airport in the region, Los Angeles International has a virtual monopoly on overseas flights and registered an 11.6% increase in international travelers from 1991 to 1992. As demand continues to increase, Driscoll added, additional passengers could be served by the Ontario facility if its expansion goes through as planned.

Elsewhere in the region, where airport managers are weighing the consequences of the base closures and the oncoming flood of competition, questions are being raised.

If El Toro is closed and converted, would United Parcel Service--which has been denied operations at John Wayne Airport--abandon Ontario in favor of an Orange County airport, or might it operate out of both locations?

And if some airlines began serving El Toro, would they continue to serve John Wayne, which is just a 15-minute drive away?

Those questions are not easily answered, although many are waiting for the results of a study by the Southern California Assn. of Governments that should pinpoint the localities where air travel demand is most likely to grow.

It is unlikely, the SCAG planners say, that the San Bernardino-Riverside County area can support more than one new international airport, based on projected population growth and proximity to Ontario airport, which has no scheduled international flights but has ambitions of becoming the international airport it calls itself.

Because conversion of George Air Force Base has become mired in controversy between rival developers, regional airport planners are beginning to favor development of Norton, which is closer to population centers.

Despite what appears to be a tremendous amount of unmet demand in Orange County, SCAG planners say a commercial airport at El Toro is not needed now.

John Wayne can handle up to 8.4 million passengers a year, but last year served 5.6 million passengers--far short of the estimated 13 million air passengers from Orange County.

Those who cannot find available flights out of John Wayne use other airports, including Los Angeles International.

SCAG aviation planner Tim Merwin said there is no immediate need for El Toro because other airports in the region, including John Wayne, are not operating at full capacity. At Long Beach, where airline traffic has steadily declined in recent years, only 840,000 passengers passed through its gates in 1992 even though it has an annual capacity of 2 million travelers.

Airport Angst

Some Southern California airport directors are so worried that too many military base closures will result in a glut of commercial airports. The result: fierce competition--particularly in the Inland Empire--to attract passengers and create jobs. Here’s how the region’s existing airports are situated compared to the bases closed or targeted for shutdowns.

Existing Commercial Airports

Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena

Los Angeles International

Long Beach Municipal

John Wayne

Ontario International

San Diego International

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Military Bases Status George Air Force Base: Closed in December, 1992 Norton Air Force Base: Scheduled to close March, 1994 March Air Force Base: Proposed reduction; active duty personnel would leave in 1996

El Toro Marine Corps Air Station: Proposed closure, 4-6 years after decision Point Mugu Naval Air Station: Navy and Ventura County pursuing joint-use plan Miramar Naval Air Station: Recently added to the proposed base closure list Researched by GEBE MARTINEZ / Los Angeles Times