Sky’s Not the Limit for Potential Airport Sites : Aviation: The conversion of several Southland military bases to commercial facilities would create a glut, officials say. The weak economy and slowed passenger demand also cloud the issue.

Back in the not too distant past, when the Southern California economy was robust and passenger demand for air travel seemed limitless, regional airport planners worried--almost wistfully--about the day when new terminals and runways would be needed.

Now, they really are worried.

Airport directors, particularly in the Inland Empire, are watching nervously as the Pentagon creates a glut of airport sites with the planned closings of three military air bases in Southern California, as well as cutbacks at a fourth that would allow for joint military-civilian use.

And the conversion of any into commercial airports could have an impact, albeit minor, on the sprawling Los Angeles airport system, which includes Ontario International, Van Nuys and Palmdale airports, as well as Los Angeles International.

While there is little question that additional airports will be needed to handle anticipated growth in regional air travel, some airport officials fear that pell-mell conversion of these military bases to commercial airports could result in financially damaging competition among airport operators.

And in the current weak economy, with airlines trimming back operations in the face of slowed passenger demand, the promised jobs and revenue that commercial airports usually generate may prove to be illusory.

“There are only so many aviation and cargo facilities to go around, and no one wins when there’s too many,” said San Bernardino County Aviation Director Jim Monger.

For Monger and others, the list of potential airports is daunting.

In San Bernardino County, officials are considering an international airport plan for Norton Air Force Base, which is scheduled to shut down in early 1994. At George Air Force Base, situated only 33 miles away, competition between two would-be airport operators with vastly different development plans has prompted Air Force officials to delay transferring control of the base, closed in 1992, until the region decides on a single legal entity to handle the conversion.

Riverside County officials are discussing commercial airport possibilities at March Air Force Base, which could be scaled back dramatically if the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission approves the Pentagon’s current defense cutbacks. March Air Force Base is a scant 15 miles from Norton.

Also on the Pentagon’s chopping block are El Toro Marine Corps Air Station in Orange County and Miramar Naval Air Station in San Diego County, although officials say it is unlikely both would be closed simultaneously. Each base has its strong defenders for continued military operations, but each location would be aggressively promoted for commercial airport development if closed.

Another potential airport site on the radar screen, but not in competition with the Inland Empire sites, is Point Mugu Naval Air Station in Ventura County, where the Navy and government officials are discussing joint, military-commercial use of the facility.

Airport directors complain that the military has plans to close too many Southern California bases in rapid succession without giving the Federal Aviation Administration and regional planners enough time to decide where additional airports will be needed in the future.

Unless there is an overall airport development plan, they say, these abandoned military bases will likely be converted to commercial airports, passenger demand will not materialize, and local airport authorities will have gone into debt only to find themselves saddled with failing enterprises.

“Everyone could be fighting for the same customer,” said Jack Driscoll, general manager of the Los Angeles Airport Department. “I am sure San Bernardino will be trying to steal some business from Ontario” International Airport, which is part of the Los Angeles airport system although it is in San Bernardino County.

San Bernardino officials “have already been trying to market themselves to Southwest Airlines to move out of Ontario. I suspect that’s going to be the game that’s going to be played,” Driscoll added.

However, Driscoll said he is not among those wringing his hands over the Pentagon’s plans to shut down several Southern California bases.

As the primary international airport in the region, Los Angeles International has a virtual monopoly on overseas flights and registered an 11.6% increase in international travelers from 1991 to 1992. As demand continues to increase, Driscoll added, additional passengers could be served by the Ontario facility if its expansion goes through as planned.

But elsewhere in the region, where airport managers are weighing the consequences of the base closures and the oncoming flood of competition, questions are being raised.

Would Southwest Airlines or other airline companies leave Ontario for any of the airports being planned for the sites in San Bernardino and Riverside counties?

If El Toro is closed and converted, would United Parcel Service--which has been denied operations at John Wayne Airport--abandon Ontario in favor of an Orange County airport, or might it operate out of each location?

And if some airlines began serving El Toro, would they continue to serve John Wayne, which is just a 15-minute drive away?

Those questions are not easily answered, although many are waiting for the results of an unfinished study by the Southern California Assn. of Governments that should pinpoint the localities where air travel demand is most likely to grow.

The association’s airport planners are drawing some preliminary conclusions, however.

It is unlikely, they say, that the San Bernardino and Riverside counties area can support more than one new international airport, based on projected population growth and the existence of Ontario International Airport, which currently has no scheduled international flights but has ambitions of becoming the international airport it calls itself.

Since conversion of George Air Force Base has become mired in controversy between rival developers, regional airport planners are beginning to favor development of Norton Air Force Base, which is closer to population centers.

March Air Force Base in Riverside County is less likely to attract passengers or airlines, the aviation planners added.

If another international airport is developed in San Bernardino County, however, it probably would compete for business with Ontario in the early years of operation. And the competition for airlines might be won by the airport that charges cheaper landing fees and lower terminal rates.

While lower landing fees could translate into lower priced airline tickets, passenger convenience ultimately depends on where the terminal is located.

“We know the demand will be there down the road, but we know it’s not there today,” said Rodney Murphy, Riverside Municipal Airport director. “The question is: ‘How far are you willing to drive to get an airplane?’ Are you willing to save $30 on an airline ticket and drive an extra hour or two hours?”

Despite what appears to be a tremendous amount of unmet demand in Orange County, Southern California Assn. of Governments planners say a commercial airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station site is not needed now.

John Wayne can handle up to 8.4 million passengers a year, but last year served 5.6 million passengers--far short of the estimated 13 million air passengers from Orange County.

Those who cannot find available flights out of John Wayne use other airports, including Los Angeles International, which estimates that about 15% of its annual passengers come from Orange County.

By the year 2010, the annual passenger demand in Orange County is expected to reach 23 million.

Newport Beach officials, who are lobbying for an El Toro airport, argue that if a new facility matched John Wayne from an operational standpoint--with similar noise and flight restrictions--Orange County still would not have enough commercial aviation facilities.

But Tim Merwin, a Southern California Assn. of Governments aviation planner, said there is no immediate need for El Toro because other airports in the region, including John Wayne, are not operating at full capacity. At Long Beach, for example, where airline traffic has steadily declined in recent years, 840,000 passengers passed through its gates in 1992, even though it has an annual capacity of 2 million travelers.

And while Orange County officials have not officially decided whether to support an El Toro airport, there is concern that another facility would create competition for John Wayne, which is owned by the county.

In touting the economic benefits that would come to the county from an El Toro airport, Newport Beach officials point to a study that assumes that 12 air carriers would operate out of El Toro, matching the number of flights now departing from John Wayne.

But because each facility would be only minutes away from each other, airline company officials said it would be a waste of money to operate out of each location, so one would have to be chosen over the other.

Newport Beach Mayor Clarence J. Turner concedes there would be competition early on, but not in 20 years. And he is openly raising the question: “Why in the hell shouldn’t it (El Toro) be an international airport? It’s bigger than LAX.”

Only if El Toro was developed as an international or “long haul” facility would it complement service now available at John Wayne.

One carrier that might be interested in El Toro is Southwest Airlines, which does not fly into John Wayne because operating restrictions prevent it from obtaining the 15 daily departures the airline says it needs.

Known for its high frequency, short-haul flights and lower fares, Southwest looks for airports that are close to people.

“When people are taking short-haul flights, they don’t want to drive to an airport that is farther than their flight is going,” said Ginger Hardage, a spokeswoman for Southwest Airlines.

But Hardage said it is too early to tell whether the airline would want to serve Ontario, another San Bernardino County site, Orange County, or a combination.

The company’s expansion plans, she added, are limited by a commitment it has made to Chicago’s Midway Airport to increase its daily departures from 75 to 100 by 1995. If an abundance of aircraft are not available, then the airline will have to carefully choose its expansion markets, she added.

Because of the downturn in the economy, the trend among larger airlines is to scale back, not expand.

“We are not shaking the bushes looking for new places to fly,” American Airlines spokesman Tim Smith said, adding that the company already operates out of LAX, Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena, Long Beach, Ontario, John Wayne and San Diego, with smaller commuter operations in Carlsbad and Oxnard.

Pointing to the proximity of potential airport sites in Southern California, Smith said it would be wrong to assume that all military bases should become airports and that all airports will be successful.

“There’s no guarantee of success simply because (a base) has good runways,” Smith said. “It’s like a ‘Field of Dreams’ for airports, that if you build an airport, people will come to it. That’s not necessarily the case.”

Airport Angst

Some Southern California airport directors are worried that too many military base closures will result in a glut of commercial airports. The result: fierce competition--particularly in the Inland Empire--to attract passengers and create jobs. Here’s how the region’s existing airports are situated compared to the bases closed or targeted for shutdowns. *Existing Commercial Airports: Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena Los Angeles International Long Beach Municipal John Wayne Ontario International Lindbergh Field, San Diego *Military Bases Status: George Air Force Base: Closed in December, 1992 Norton Air Force Base: Scheduled to close March, 1994 March Air Force Base: Proposed reduction; active duty personnel would leave in 1996 El Toro Marine Corps Air Station: Proposed closure, 4 to 6 years after decision Point Mugu Naval Air Station: Navy and Ventura County pursuing joint-use plan Miramar Naval Air Station: Recently added to the proposed base closure list Researched by GEBE MARTINEZ / Los Angeles Times