U.S. Studies Iraq Moves, Delays Military Action : Gulf: The White House weighs Baghdad’s compliance after some offending missiles are shifted before deadline.
WASHINGTON — The United States said it could not determine whether Baghdad had met the late-Friday deadline for removing antiaircraft missiles from the “no-fly zone†in southern Iraq and would delay military action until it could be certain.
Minutes before the deadline passed at 2:15 p.m. Pacific time Friday, White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater issued a statement indicating that some Iraqi missiles had been moved. But he cautioned that more time was needed to determine precisely how many and where they had been placed.
Pentagon officials said cloud cover and heavy rain over Iraq had made it impossible for U.S. spy satellites to tell whether the Iraqis were moving the missiles out of the area or merely repositioning them.
“We are still in the process of determining whether Iraq is in compliance with the terms of the coalition (ultimatum),†Fitzwater added. “We continue to keep the situation in Iraq under close scrutiny.â€
Officials said it was possible the White House could have a definitive reading by early this morning on how fully the Iraqis have complied. That, in turn, could lead to a decision sometime this weekend on whether to launch an American-led attack.
At the same time, Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, noted Friday that no Iraqi planes had penetrated the allied no-fly zone since the Western powers delivered their demand on Wednesday. “We are pleased about that,†the general said.
The shortage of adequate intelligence appeared likely to put off at least for a few more hours the question of whether the allies would be satisfied with the Iraqi response to their ultimatum--and whether the U.S. would launch a retaliatory air strike, as it had threatened.
Officials said the Administration’s decision to delay any military action against Iraq also reflected a desire to give the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein as much leeway as possible to comply with the allied demands--particularly since Baghdad has chosen to push the situation to the brink.
Still, U.S. officials warned that the reprieve does not necessarily mean that Iraq is considered in compliance with the allied ultimatum, and they said the United States still intends to use force if Baghdad is found to be flouting the allies’ order.
The United States and its key U.N. allies--Britain, France and Russia--issued the ultimatum on Wednesday after Baghdad moved antiaircraft missiles into the area and Iraqi jets had penetrated the no-fly zone and provoked U.S. airplanes that were trying to patrol the area. A U.S. plane downed an Iraqi jet Dec. 27.
The allies imposed the no-fly zone last Aug. 26 to help prevent Baghdad from repressing Shiite Muslim nomads who live in southern Iraq. The U.N. Security Council imposed a similar zone in northern Iraq earlier this year to protect the Kurdish population there from Iraqi air attacks.
Friday’s inconclusive result followed a day in which the Iraqis appeared determined in their public statements to defy the ultimatum, prompting President Bush to call an emergency meeting of his national security advisers to review American options once again.
Early in the day, Iraq’s Tarik Aziz, deputy prime minister, formally declared that Baghdad “will not heed the West’s ultimatum and will uphold its right to keep its air defense bases where they are.†He warned that Iraq would “respond in kind†to any allied attack.
A few minutes later, the Iraqi National Assembly unanimously endorsed Aziz’s stand, and a military confrontation seemed inevitable. Baghdad also barred flights of U.N. inspectors from landing anywhere in Iraq.
American officials declined to discuss specifics of what Bush and his top policy-makers decided at Friday’s session, but they indicated that the President was still firmly resolved to enforce the allies’ demand.
As if to back that up, a few minutes before the Friday deadline, the Pentagon said the aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk, stationed in the Persian Gulf, had launched 33 fighter planes and would maintain heavily armed combat patrols for the indefinite future.
President-elect Bill Clinton also reiterated his support for Bush’s policies, telling a news conference in Austin, Tex., where he met with Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, that “there is no daylight between our two positions.â€
But Pentagon officials and Administration policy-makers alike cautioned that an American attack might not occur immediately, even if one were ultimately ordered--partly because of bad weather conditions and partly to help preserve some element of surprise.
The Pentagon declined to say precisely what facilities the United States might target, if it carries out an attack. But officials have hinted for days that any offensive would be strong enough to send a message--probably going well beyond the targeted missiles to the destruction of airfields as well.
Washington has a formidable array of military power in the Persian Gulf area. The Kitty Hawk itself carries about 80 combat aircraft and is accompanied by 11 other surface ships, three of which are capable of launching Tomahawk missiles. And the Air Force has installations in Saudi Arabia that can dispatch a variety of attack planes and fighters, including radar-evading F-117 Stealth bombers and U-2 spy planes. Both groups also have tankers and radar aircraft.
Anthony H. Cordesman, a Georgetown University military expert, said that if Washington ordered an air strike, American pilots probably would not encounter much of a threat from Iraqi aircraft and missiles. Although Iraq has partly rebuilt its air defenses north of the no-fly zone, experts say that its skill-levels and equipment still are no match for American airmen. “U.S. casualties should be very limited,†Cordesman said.
The Iraqi Missiles
The antiaircraft missiles in dispute in Iraq are relatively old Soviet-made SA-2 and SA-3 surface-to-air rockets
Iraqi Arsenal: A battery of SA-2s consists of two missiles; an SA-3 usually carries three.
Developed: In the 1960s
Range: 25 to 31 miles for the SA-2; 15 to 19 miles for the SA-3.
U.S. Strength in the Region: The Persian Gulf would be a launch area for a U.S. strike. The aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk is now there. The U.S. weapons in the region include: Naval Vessels Aircraft carrier (Kitty Hawk) Three cruisers Two destroyers Two frigates Three support ships Command ship (LaSalle) Aircraft F-15 Eagles (long-range air-to-ground strike capabilities) F-15Cs and F-14s (air-to-air attack) F-16s and F-A18s (air and ground strikes) F-117 Stealth fighters EF-111 electronic-jamming planes E-3 radar aircraft U-2 high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft
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