Buckle Up for Changes in the New Year : Outlook: Stricter seat belt law is timely as county awaits twists and turns in health care, transportation, and, it is hoped, the economy.

Orange County may see the recession’s grip loosening ever so slightly in 1993--good news for many who were hard hit by layoffs, cutbacks and downsizing.

But don’t uncork the champagne yet.

Chapman University President James L. Doti said that according to the university’s Center for Economic Research, the county’s economy is in a much slower recovery mode than the rest of the nation.

“Say you are sick on Wednesday with a cold. On Thursday, you’re recovering. You feel a little bit better than yesterday. You’re not totally well yet, but you do feel like you’re recovering,” Doti said.

Changes--some small, and others monumental--will take place in Orange County this year.

For starters, the state’s new seat-belt law takes effect today. In addition, major changes are expected in health care for 1993. In transportation, completion of a major bypass route of the El Toro “Y” is expected, while county treasures such as O’Neill Regional Park will reopen for overnight camping. The county will unveil the new, 335-acre Peters Canyon Regional Park, which is in the north Tustin area.

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The brighter economic picture will mean good news for the county’s school districts toward the end of 1993. School officials say they hope that a better economy will mean the end of headlines about imminent teacher layoffs, although anticipated cutbacks still mean more work for smaller staffs.

“We’ll see increasing class sizes--cutting classroom aides means more work for teachers, and cutbacks in the money available from the state means less for operating expenses,” said Michael Kilbourn, director of special services for the county Department of Education. “Parents will continue paying fees and other costs for things not covered such as bus rides for transportation to and from school for their children.”

With Gov. Pete Wilson facing a $7.5-billion to $10-billion budget deficit in the next 18 months, there are hard times ahead. Kilbourn also said he foresees less support by the federal government toward schools, which would probably force local school boards to generate revenue through other means.

Legislation that will allow school boards to impose taxes for operational expenses has been authored by state Sen. Gary K. Hart (D-Santa Barbara), Kilbourn said.

Wilson has said he is committed to maintaining the same per-pupil revenue for 1993-94, Kilbourn said. However, a reduction in state revenue is on the horizon when the half-cent sales tax initiated after the Loma Prieta earthquake expires June, 1993, he said.

School districts in central Orange County will continue to gain students, bringing much-needed Average Daily Attendance money for budget-starved districts.

In fact, Orange County will have about 40,000 to 50,000 new residents, about the same as last year, said William Gayk, county demographer. The county’s population is now about 2.56 million.

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On environmental issues, the biggest prediction is that the California gnatcatcher will be named a federal endangered species, along with its neighbor, the cactus wren. Both birds inhabit a type of brush found in Southern California’s coastal areas.

The listings--the worst nightmare of local developers--would throw a wrench into development plans, as federal approval would be required before they can build on the birds’ habitat. The federal government’s decision on the gnatcatcher is due March 17. It is not known when the decision on the cactus wren will be made since the deadline has already passed.

Huntington Beach will face one of Orange County’s toughest environmental decisions: whether to allow nearly 5,000 homes to be built in the Bolsa Chica wetlands and mesa. Look for that issue to come before the council in the summer.

Home to thousands of birds, including some endangered species, Bolsa Chica is called the “crown jewel” of wetlands in Southern California. The development would damage about 135 acres of wetlands and erode about 300 feet of Bolsa Chica State Beach. In exchange, the landowners, managed by the Koll Co., have offered to turn over 800 acres of their privately held land at Bolsa Chica to the public, and restore or create about 400 acres of wetlands, creating a huge protected marsh.

At the same time, the San Joaquin Hills toll road and an Irvine Co. plan to build a small marina at Upper Newport Bay will probably be granted federal approval early this year. Both projects have been studied and under debate for years.

The battle over the six-lane tollway, however, is sure to end in a lawsuit pitting a national environmental group and local activists against county road builders.

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In law enforcement, a spokesman for Sheriff Brad Gates said the department hopes to finish a major expansion at the Theo Lacy Branch Jail in Orange, which will have 192 new cells. Sheriff’s Lt. Dick Olson said it will help, but surely not alleviate, the county’s overcrowded jail system. Olson said that on Dec. 20, there were 972 inmates at Theo Lacy, which is rated for housing 622 inmates.

A new state law that takes effect today allows police to stop and ticket motorists and passengers for not wearing seat belts. Riding in a car without buckling up can cost you $22, said Angel Johnson, a CHP spokeswoman in Santa Ana.

“We’re the first state in the nation that has enhanced the law, from a secondary to a primary law. That means that officers can stop you just for not wearing a seat belt from now on. The fine for the first time is $22. But after that, it’s $55 for each offense,” Johnson said.

Several police departments, such as Orange, said that they intend to use and expand the community policing program, a technique used extensively by Los Angeles Police Chief Willie L. Williams. Orange Police Capt. Lou Walsh said that his department has been restructured to put more personnel on the streets. “We’ve even started a foot patrol program.”

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In health care, hospital profits at the county’s smaller hospitals will continue to decline and could result in more closures and closings of emergency room facilities similar to that of Humana Hospital-Westminster.

“I think . . . we’re going to see hospitals continue to have financial difficulty. I know of seven hospitals (in Orange County) that are on the edge. But also the larger hospitals could be in trouble due to the amount of indigent care they’re serving,” said Russell Inglish, vice president of the Hospital Council of Southern California.

Inglish said the most exciting thing for 1993 is the formation of OPTIMA, a non-governmental agency that will handle the Medi-Cal crisis. Described as an HMO-style health-care system for the poor, it is an attempt by five private and public agencies to pool the county’s 225,000 Medi-Cal patients into one unified system called OPTIMA. OPTIMA’s formation board is expected to be selected in June, he said.

Faith Hagerty, executive director of the Coalition of Orange County Community Clinics, said that health-care professionals are concerned about the circumstances prompting the closures, rather than the closures themselves.

Hagerty said that despite the anticipated economic turnaround, more people will be needing health care, not less.

“Unless the economy changes drastically, we’re going to see people who were employed most of their lives out of work and without any health-care insurance. We know that because we’re seeing more of it already,” Hagerty said.

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High-profile investigations and cases that grabbed headlines last year may finally come to an end this year. One case, involving Charles H. Keating Jr., accused of securities fraud in Los Angeles, should be completed in 1993.

Many county residents who invested in the now-defunct Lincoln Savings & Loan are keeping a close watch on Keating’s criminal trial. Keating, 69, and his son, Charles H. Keating III, are charged with conspiracy, racketeering, mail and wire fraud in connection with the Irvine-based thrift’s collapse. If convicted of all the charges in the 71-count indictment, the senior Keating, who has said he is innocent, faces hundreds of years in federal prison.

In other cases, an Orange County grand jury probe of County Supervisor Don R. Roth is expected to end. Since May, 1992, Roth has been a target of an investigation on whether he exchanged political favors for gifts.

The case of accused murderer Omaima Nelson, 26, is expected to go to a jury. Nelson admitted killing her husband in self defense but the subsequent butchering of his body, detailed in open court, has become legend in the corridors of the Santa Ana courthouse.

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In Anaheim, Toontown, Disneyland’s new mythical community of cartoon characters, opens Jan. 26. Recently, children who got a sneak preview of the new “town” came away excited. Jason Villarreal, 11, of La Habra, squealed: “I like this place!”

And if toons don’t get your fancy, try a cozy, warm fireplace and T. Jefferson Parker’s latest mystery, “Summer of Fear,” due out in July from St. Martin’s Press. Parker, who lives in Laguna Beach, has again used Orange County as the backdrop for his mystery.

St. Martin’s Press catalogue provided this teaser:

“It is a hot California summer and a serial killer is preying on Orange County, massacring entire families. The police are unaccountably keeping the killings under wraps and Russ Monroe, ex-cop turned crime writer, needs to know why. The reason: Russ has just stumbled onto the body of his ex-lover.”

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Then there’s the California drought. Despite a wet December that somewhat eased the danger of severe drought this coming year, the threat remains, said Jake Angel, a spokesman for the State Drought Center in Sacramento.

“We don’t know what the year 1993 holds in store for us,” Angel said.

He said that six years of extremely dry conditions have left the state’s key reservoirs low.

Orange County imports half of its water, much of it from the State Water Project that transports runoff from the Sierra Nevada. State water watchers have already warned that Southern California will only get 10% of its allocation because of the persistent drought.

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In Huntington Beach, the city will be pondering in 1993 what it will do to complete its new pier. Tens of thousands attended the opening of the new, 1,856-foot-long pier during the summer. Proposals include some new buildings, among them a new lifeguard tower and a restaurant at the end of the pier.

An undecided issue is whether the city will build a new entrance from Pacific Coast Highway to the pier. One proposal calls for building a new structure for the Surf Museum inside a two-story pier plaza building.

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In transportation, getting from Point A to Point B faster will again dominate the issues. For 1993, look for:

* The start of construction on the state’s first private toll lanes, in the median of the Riverside Freeway between the Riverside County border and the Costa Mesa Freeway.

* Additional construction as part of the Santa Ana Freeway widening project, between the Costa Mesa and Garden Grove freeways.

* The widening of the Riverside Freeway, which will begin between the Costa Mesa and Orange freeways.

* The completion of the Beach Boulevard “super-street” project between the San Diego Freeway and Lincoln Avenue in Anaheim. Additional construction will begin between Ellis Avenue and Stark Street in Huntington Beach.

* Three to five additional Metrolink commuter trains that will increase rail service to and from Los Angeles by September, with Oceanside added as the southernmost depot.

* The opening of a three-mile stretch of the Foothill tollway near Mission Viejo, perhaps by summer, making it the county’s first operating public toll road.

* The easing of jet-noise rules at John Wayne Airport, barring adverse rulings. It will allow slightly more jet noise over homeowners’ objections. This is to comply with new federal safety regulations.

Also, the Foothill tollway will be completed. This important link will provide a bypass route of the busy El Toro “Y.”

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Under new programs for 1993, County Librarian John M. Adams says the county’s library system will be implementing what he called “the most advanced library computer system in the country.”

Computers at each of the county’s 27 libraries will provide users with the status of a book or magazine, including its return date, Adams said. The computers will also be used to order books.

Adams said the sophisticated “fun part” comes when they introduce, possibly in midyear, access to an Ohio database, which includes the inventory of “just about every library” in the United States and some in Great Britain.

“The user gets to access the database and, having found an item, you can place a reserve for it with your library card. Based on previous agreements, the library you have chosen ships the book or article or whatever it is you needed,” Adams said.

“If you have a personal computer with a modem at your home, you can get all this and put in a reserve hold from your home. Because of this convenience, you don’t have to drive to the library or worry about parking. We may install a 900 number, and the user will have to pay a fee of about $2,” Adams said.