Indicators Rise 0.8% in November : Economy: The second monthly surge reflects big gains in consumer confidence, but an 8.3% drop in new home sales suggests weakness in that sector.
The nation’s main gauge of the economy’s future prospects rose again in November, the government said Wednesday, but other reports hinted that the fledgling recovery still has its share of trouble.
The Commerce Department said its index of leading economic indicators climbed 0.8% last month, the strongest gain since February and the second increase in a row. The index, which measures 11 key business components, is designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months in advance.
But in another report, Commerce said sales of new homes dropped a surprising 8.3% in November after falling 8.2% in October. And while the Conference Board, a respected business-research group, said that newspaper advertisements for new job openings rose slightly last month, it added that employers aren’t expected to start a hiring binge soon.
“The economy is definitely improving, but there are obviously still some weak spots,†said Ted Keen, an economist with Economic Analysis Corp. in Century City.
Eight of the leading index’s 11 forward-looking indicators improved last month. A 16% rise in consumer confidence, as measured by a monthly University of Michigan survey, accounted for half of the index’s gain.
“There’s hope and optimism in the country that things are going to get better. What we have to do now is keep interest rates down and get growth going,†said President-elect Bill Clinton in a statement from Hilton Head, S.C., where he is vacationing.
Clinton didn’t comment on whether Wednesday’s report lessened the need to follow through with his proposals to stimulate the economy with middle-class tax cuts and more spending on public works projects.
But many analysts said the recent spate of upbeat economic reports may allow the new President to concentrate on reducing the deficit instead of pushing a stimulus package through Congress.
“The message for the new year is that the economy is up and running,†Boston Co. economist Allen Sinai said. “Given that the economy is up and running, do we need to give it a shot of adrenalin? The answer is, ‘Maybe not, and if so, probably very little.’ â€
Most analysts shrugged off the 8.3% drop in new home sales, noting that Commerce has released its monthly sales figures and subsequently revised them upward later in each of the last 14 months.
The department said Wednesday that it would change its method of calculating sales, starting next month, to improve the report’s accuracy.
“The housing market is still weak in some spots, but it’s not as bad as Commerce says it is,†said Gopal Ahluwalia, an economist for the National Assn. of Home Builders.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board said that its index of help-wanted advertising rose to 94 last month from 92 in October and 90 a year earlier.
The index, which measures the amount of help-wanted advertising placed in 51 major newspapers, sets the total for want-ad linage in 1967 as 100.
The business-research group said advertising volume fell 1.6% on the West Coast and 0.5% in Chicago and the surrounding area. Volume rose in all other regions, led by a 10% gain in the area that includes New York and Pennsylvania.
Ken Goldstein, the group’s chief economist, said advertising volume won’t pick up soon because employers aren’t hiring new workers despite signs of an economic rebound.
“Companies are running ‘leaner and meaner,’ †Goldstein said. “While there are some signs that economic activity began to perk up a little in the second half of 1992, it is too soon to expect any response from the labor market.â€
In another report, the Purchasing Management Assn. of Chicago said its monthly index rose to 59.75% in December from 54.2% in November.
A reading below 50% signals a slowdown in the key Midwestern manufacturing economy, while a reading above 50% suggests expansion.
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