Democrats Boxer, Feinstein Even With Foes : Senate: Results of Times Poll in the county cast a shadow on the chances of Republicans Seymour and Herschensohn, who need a hefty majority locally to offset the vote in L.A. and Bay Area.

By ERIC BAILEY

Sept. 30, 1992 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

In a bad omen for Republican hopes of capturing the state’s two U.S. Senate seats, Democrats Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer have pulled neck and neck with their opponents in the crucial GOP stronghold of Orange County, a Times Orange County Poll has found.

The Democratic pair’s solid showing does not bode well for the Republican hopefuls, Sen. John Seymour and Los Angeles television commentator Bruce Herschensohn, who have been counting on a hefty haul of votes in conservative Orange County to win election statewide.

Feinstein staged the most remarkable comeback, pulling into a dead heat with Seymour on the incumbent senator’s home turf. Each got 44% in the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Seymour, a former Anaheim mayor who also represented the county in the Assembly and state Senate, led by 13 points over Feinstein in a Times poll conducted a month ago.

Boxer, meanwhile, cut her Orange County deficit in half, drawing to within 4 percentage points of Herschensohn after finishing 8 points down in the late August poll. Herschensohn led with 45% of the vote compared to 41% for Boxer, who had trailed the GOP candidate 49% to 41% last month.

The Times Orange County Poll, conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, contacted a random sample of 600 registered voters in the county between last Thursday and Sunday.

“It’s going to be very difficult for John Seymour and Bruce Herschensohn to win statewide with the level of support they’ve achieved in Orange County,” Baldassare said. “There is a mood among Orange County voters for sweeping change, and both Feinstein and Boxer are benefiting from that mood.”

The two Democrats fared even better among people who said they would probably vote Nov. 3. Feinstein pulled into a slight lead over Seymour, 45% to 44%, with 10% undecided. Herschensohn’s thin edge over Boxer grew even thinner, 45% to 42%, with 12% unsure.

Republican candidates in statewide races historically have had to record a knockout victory in Orange County to stand a chance of winning in California. To offset heavy Democratic surpluses in Los Angeles and the Bay Area, GOP candidates typically count on at least a 200,000-vote margin in Orange County, which normally translates into winning at least 60% of the vote.

But the performance of Seymour and Herschensohn in the poll doesn’t even approach Republican Party registration in Orange County, where about 54% of the voters identify themselves as members of the GOP while 34% are Democrats.

The two Republicans also have performed poorly in statewide polls. In a Los Angeles Times poll conducted Sept. 10 through 13 among 1,330 California voters, Boxer led Herschensohn 52% to 33%, with 15% undecided, while Feinstein held a 53% to 37% edge over Seymour, with 10% unsure.

In Orange County, the two Democrats have shared voter strength with the top of their party’s ticket. Three of four people voting for Democratic presidential challenger Bill Clinton are backing Feinstein, while seven of 10 Clinton supporters are siding with Boxer.

A gender gap also has emerged in Orange County, with the two women Democrats pulling strongly among women and the two male Republicans performing strongly among men.

Feinstein enjoys the support of 52% of the women voters, while 36% back Seymour. Among men, the support was almost reversed, with 53% backing Seymour and 35% favoring Feinstein. Boxer’s edge among women isn’t so strong, with 45% behind her and 40% favoring Herschensohn, while 37% of the men backed the Democrat and 50% favored the Republican.

Bill Barry, an Irvine Republican, said he plans to vote a straight GOP ticket, reasoning that getting more Democrats out of Congress will help President Bush if he is reelected. His problem with the two Democratic women isn’t their sex, but their beliefs.

“It’s just the fact that they aren’t Republicans,” said Barry, who owns a window-coverings business in Mission Viejo. “I don’t like where they try to make it an all-female type of election. It doesn’t make any difference whether it’s female or male. Some of them push female, female, female. I’m tired of that.”

The two Democrats also are pulling voters away from the Republican ranks. Feinstein and Boxer each were endorsed by 27% of the GOP voters, while Herschensohn is favored by 21% of Democratic voters and Seymour by 20%.

Baldassare said there was also a significant defection to Feinstein among Republican women in Orange County. Of the Republicans who back the former San Francisco mayor, two of three are women. Boxer’s support among Republicans is divided almost equally between men and women.

Among the potential crossover Republicans is Mindy Uranga, 32, a Santa Ana mother of two. Uranga has voted solidly for GOP candidates since she first registered at age 18. But she now says the nation’s economic slump and other problems cry out for different leadership. She plans to vote for the two Democrats.

“I’m not voting for them just because they’re women,” Uranga said. “It just seems they’re very strong, that they’re very motivated. I don’t think it’s an issue that they’re women as much as I think I just relate to them more.”

But anti-incumbent fervor could also play a hand in Seymour’s race against Feinstein. Helen Ewing of Yorba Linda, for instance, plans to vote for anyone who is not an incumbent. She will vote for Texas billionaire Ross Perot, an independent candidate, in the presidential sweepstakes, and in the Senate she plans to back a mixed ticket of Herschensohn and Feinstein.

“With Feinstein, it’s not so much that I like her platform as it is I think our politicians need a break,” Ewing said. “I’d like to stand our political system up on its ear.”

BOXER CANCELS DEBATE Senate candidate’s staff blames an unexpected change in format. A16

Senate Races Tighten in Orange County

Dianne Feinstein has pulled even with Sen. John Seymour in the race for the two-year Senate seat. Just a month ago, Seymour claimed majority support. There is a significant gender gap working in the race. Democrat Feinstein is having more luck attracting Republicans than Seymour is in luring Democrats.

The race for the full-term seat also has tightened. Rep. Barbara Boxer has now closed to within four points of Republican candidate Bruce Herschensohn. Gender differences are not as vivid as in the two-year-seat race, but Boxer is matching Feinstein’s pull among opposition Republicans.

If the election for U.S. senator for the two-year seat were held today, would you vote for ...

Aug. Sept. 22-23 24-27 Dianne Feinstein 39% 44% Sen. John Seymour 52 44 Other, don’t know 9 12

Other, Feinstein Seymour don’t know Total 44% 44% 12% Men 35 53 12 Women 52 36 12 Democrats 72 20 8 Republicans 27 61 12

If the election for U.S. senator for the six-year seat were held today, would you vote for ...

Aug. Sept. 22-23 24-27 Rep. Barbara Boxer 41% 41% Bruce Herschensohn 49 45 Other, don’t know 10 14

Other, Boxer Herschensohn don’t know Total 41% 45% 14% Men 37 50 13 Women 45 40 15 Democrats 65 21 14 Republicans 27 61 12

Source: Times Orange County Poll

How This Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted Sept. 24-27 on weekday nights and weekend days using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain that the results are within 4 percentage points of what they would be if every adult registered voter were interviewed. All respondents were guaranteed anonymity; however, some of those polled agreed to be re-interviewed for this story.