National Agenda : Which Way Will Angola Turn? : A nation shaken by years of war is looking for the quickest path to prosperity. Now voters must pick one of two sworn enemies to lead the march.
LUANDA, Angola — In the long, sad decline of Africa, this capital is in a class by itself.
Once a pristine bayside city of Portuguese architecture, vibrant coffeehouses and 300,000 people, it is now a ragged ghetto of 2 million with power outages, broken elevators, barren stores and gaping potholes.
And yet, the other day, workers were cleaning and painting the grimy facade of the post office downtown. New imported cars were gliding by on the street. And, around the corner, hip young Angolans in colorful T-shirts and pressed blue jeans were selling imported clothes in a busy new Benetton store.
The arrival of a trendy Italian clothier might not be cause for optimism in most countries. But in a nation like Angola--wrecked by war, superpower conflict and Marxist central planning--it represented the hopeful sound of an economic heartbeat for the first time in more than 17 years.
These and other small signs of life are appearing with increasing frequency as Angola, potentially one of Africa’s wealthiest countries, prepares to vote next week in its first national elections.
That voting, monitored by the United Nations and a host of foreign governments, has broad ramifications for southern Africa. If successful, it will launch the reconstruction of this mineral-rich nation on the Atlantic Ocean and be a model for elections in Mozambique, another former Portuguese colony emerging from a decade and a half of Marxist rule and civil war.
Nearly 5 million voters, half the country’s population, have registered for Angola’s presidential and parliamentary elections, to be held next Tuesday and Wednesday. For many Angolans, the laminated registration cards bear the first photograph they’ve ever owned.
Cities are festooned with political banners and billboards. Pickup trucks carry the flag-waving party faithful to impromptu rallies. State-run television broadcasts hours of propaganda from the 19 registered parties. And eager crowds gather at information booths to learn about multi-party democracy from imported videos.
The race for the presidency boils down to a choice between Jose Eduardo dos Santos, a Moscow-trained petroleum engineer and born-again capitalist who presides over this one-party state, and Jonas Savimbi, a swashbuckling guerrilla leader and a darling of American conservatives.
Until 16 months ago, Dos Santos’ army, backed by Cuba and the former Soviet Union, and Savimbi’s guerrillas, backed by the American CIA and South Africa, were locked in one of Africa’s bloodiest civil wars. And that war, which killed more than 300,000 people, had followed another war, the 13-year struggle for independence from Portugal.
Now Dos Santos, a 49-year-old former Marxist, smiles handsomely on his beleaguered country from slick posters and billboards created by a Brazilian public relations agency.
And Savimbi, 58, rallies the faithful with a new trim on his thick bush beard, an ivory-handled walking stick instead of a side arm, and safari suits in place of camouflage fatigues.
Both promise a fresh start for their country. They want to rebuild the country’s infrastructure and restore the people’s hope. That message has wide appeal in a war-weary nation. But the people also are wary of democracy.
Many are old enough to remember the last scheduled election, when the Portuguese colonialists pulled out in 1975. Fighting broke out right here in the capital, Savimbi led his supporters back to the bush, the two world superpowers took sides--and the election never happened.
Can two sworn enemies like Dos Santos and Savimbi, and their loyal followers, ever live together peacefully? No one is sure.
“The spirit of the war remains,†Savimbi acknowledged in an interview. “We’ll have to create a new atmosphere, a new culture of tolerance.â€
Today, the country remains tense. With the election fast approaching, the dismantling of the two armies--and the creation of a new, 50,000-member joint force--is going slowly. Only about half the soldiers have been disarmed, and the countryside is awash in weapons.
Deep physical scars remain across the country, from the amputees who walk the streets to the bombed-out roads and buildings. Gunfire rings out nightly in Luanda, and urban crime, brewed in the shantytowns of war refugees and job seekers that ring the capital, is rampant.
The economy has a chaotic feel. While motorists can fill their tank for the equivalent of about $2.50, a chicken costs $20. Business people can receive Cable News Network on their hotel-room television, but the phone system is so unreliable that most have to carry walkie-talkies to call their offices across town.
But after two years of free-market medicine administered by the Dos Santos government, the economy is showing signs of life. War is no longer draining Angola’s treasury, which gets annual $3-billion transfusions from its oil exports, the second-largest in sub-Saharan Africa. Restaurants, stores, art galleries and a movie theater have opened in recent weeks.
Government corruption is rife, diplomats say. Diamond smugglers move freely in and out of the airports. And about 50,000 prospectors, armed with automatic rifles and shovels, are digging illegally for diamonds in northeastern Angola.
Foreigners hoping to make a quick buck in the country clog Luanda’s best hotels. New, twice-weekly flights between Luanda and South Africa are brimming with entrepreneurs; one Angolan checked in for a flight in Johannesburg recently with 150 extra pieces of luggage--2,000 pounds of goods he hoped to resell in Luanda.
On the streets of Luanda, youths in torn clothes peddle everything from wall clocks and TV antennas to bug spray. And dozens of women wave bundles of kwanza, the local currency, at motorists, hoping to exchange kwanza for U.S. dollars in a local version of the drive-up teller.
That capitalist free-for-all, along with the deep-seated animosities bred by years of war, has made many Angolans doubt whether either Dos Santos or Savimbi can stop the country’s slide into anarchy.
The United Nations, which is responsible for observing the elections and pronouncing them “free and fair,†has only 400 monitors to watch over 6,000 polling stations in a country three times the size of California.
Dos Santos’ party, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA for its Portuguese initials, and Savimbi’s National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, or UNITA, are barely on speaking terms.
“I wish I were Rip van Winkle,†Margaret Anstee, the U.N. special representative to Angola, said in an interview. “I’d like to go to sleep today and wake up when it’s all over.â€
Anstee and foreign diplomats say they are cautiously optimistic, though. Anstee is counting on 40 helicopters, nine airplanes and the element of surprise to help U.N. monitors verify the results. “It’s a very thin cover, and it should be more,†Anstee admitted. “But I think it will work.â€
The United States and the former Soviet Union, which took opposing sides in Angola’s civil war, helped broker the withdrawal of Cuban and South African troops in 1988 and the cease-fire last year. Now, the United States, the world’s biggest importer of Angolan oil, says it doesn’t care who wins, as long as the elections are free and fair. And it has promised to end its long diplomatic isolation of Angola’s government after the elections.
However, foreign governments have warned both sides that a return to war would be dealt with harshly.
“Any government that comes to power in a coup d’etat will suffer total international isolation,†said Herman Cohen, U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs.
The election is too close to call, most diplomats here say. The MPLA has strong support in the capital and other pockets in the north. UNITA’s support base is in central and southern regions. Each party claims its own polls give it an 80% victory.
The winner must take more than 50% of the vote, and a strong showing by one or more of the plethora of smaller parties could force a second election.
Savimbi and Dos Santos, under pressure from foreign governments, have agreed to be bound by the election results. And, win or lose, each has agreed to work with his opponent in the future government.
“Anyone winning the election should keep in mind what this country has been through,†Savimbi said. “There is a need for national reconciliation.â€
Savimbi has promised to invite MPLA Cabinet ministers into his government if he wins. Dos Santos has not gone that far, but he has agreed to accept UNITA as an official opposition party and include UNITA supporters in his government if they resign from UNITA.
“It will not be easy for us to cooperate in the same government with UNITA,†said Joao Lourenco, the government’s spokesman and deputy campaign director. “That would imply that we agree with UNITA, which we don’t.â€
The campaign itself has been surprisingly low-key. Both of the primary parties agree on the need for peace, political stability and a free-market economy in the country. The MPLA’s campaign slogan is “O Futuro Tranquiloâ€--A Tranquil Future.
The main issue dividing them is the war, which ended with a cease-fire in May, 1991. The Cuban and South African troops are now gone. The CIA’s covert funding of UNITA has ended, American diplomats say. And yet, the Angolan campaign remains focused on that brutal legacy.
UNITA says the MPLA’s conversion from Marxism to democracy and a free-market economy is too recent to be trusted. It is UNITA, Savimbi reminds voters, that has been fighting for free elections. And now, he says, the country needs calsas nova , or new trousers.
Dos Santos counters that Savimbi doesn’t have new trousers. “They’re from Jamba,†the president says, referring to UNITA’s headquarters camp in southern Angola. For the thousands of Angolans who fought against UNITA, that is a powerful argument.
The MPLA insists that it has buried its Marxist past. “We’ve made mistakes,†spokesman Lourenco admitted, “but we’ve shown a great capacity to change.â€
Western diplomats have their doubts about both Dos Santos and Savimbi.
For most of his 13-year term, Dos Santos ran a state-controlled economy. Although he has embraced the free market, following the lead of converted Marxists worldwide, the economy has continued to flounder.
Diplomats also worry about Savimbi, though. He has long been a U.S. ally and an exponent of free-market solutions for the economy. But they question his commitment to democracy. As the leader of a guerrilla movement, Savimbi has shown an authoritarian streak, becoming a revered cult figure among UNITA supporters. Without the charismatic Savimbi, UNITA would probably crumble, many believe.
“He’s a complete autocrat, a godlike figure,†said one South African diplomat. But that envoy also calls Savimbi “one of the most remarkable people I’ve ever met in my life.â€
Either leader, though, will inherit a deeply troubled country. Said one Western diplomat here: “Whoever wins this election is going to face a mammoth task, which I don’t think anybody is up to.â€
Angola -- A Country in Transition
THE LAND AND THE PEOPLE
* Official name: People’s Republic of Angola
* Capital: Luanda
* Population: 10 million
* Area: 481,353 sq. mi. Roughly the size of Texas and California combined
* Religions: Indigenous beliefs 47%, Roman Catholic 38%, Protestant 15%
* Life expectancy: 42 (male), 46 (female)
* Infant mortality: 151 per 1,000 live births
* Literacy: 42%
THE ECONOMY
An Overview:
Subsistence agriculture has traditionally been the main source of livelihood for up to 90% of the population, but it accounts for less than 15% of the total gross domestic product. Oil production has been the most lucrative sector of the economy, accounting for almost 50% of the GDP.
In recent years, the impact of Angola’s civil war has severely curtailed non-oil sectors of the economy and has resulted in the need to import basic foodstuffs and other commodities.
The Statistics:
* Gross national product, per capita: $925 (1990 estimate)
* Balance of trade:
Exports (1990) -- valued at $3.8 billion. Mainly oil, diamonds, coffee, sisal, fish and fish products, timber and cotton.
Imports (1990) -- valued at $1.5 billion. Mainly machinery and electrical equipment, food, vehicles and spare parts, textiles and clothing, medicines and substantial military equipment.
* Primary trading partners: U.S., former Soviet Union, Cuba, Portugal, Brazil and France
* External debt: $7 billion (1990)
* Major industries: petroleum, mining (phosphate rock and diamonds), fish processing, brewing, tobacco, sugar, textiles, cement, food processing, building construction.
A BRIEF HISTORY
Portugal settled in the Bantu tribal land that is now Angola in 1583. In alliance with the Bakongo kingdom to the north, the settlers developed the slave trade.
Wide-scale colonization did not occur until the early 20th Century, when 400,000 Portuguese immigrated. A guerrilla war raged from 1961 until 1974, when Portugal offered the fractious territory its independence. A protracted civil war ensued with Cuba and the United States backing opposing factions. A formal agreement was signed May 31, 1991, to end the fighting and to hold general multi-party elections by the end of 1992.
Sources: The World Factbook 1991, The World Almanac 1992, The Africa Review 1992.
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