What the West Must Ask of a New Ukraine : Kiev needs guidance on economic integration, nuclear role
President Bush’s decision to recognize the Ukraine’s emergence as a sovereign nation “in a timely fashion†might be faulted for its timing--he could have waited until after Sunday’s referendum on independence from the Soviet Union--but not on its substance. It has long been clear that the United States and Western Europe can do nothing to slow the onrushing locomotive of Ukrainian nationalism; that being the case there is no point served by lying across the tracks.
The goal now should be to insist that the Ukraine make unequivocal its acceptance of all its international responsibilities, while hoping that the impending divorce from the Soviet Union will be as free as possible from mutually destructive rancor.
Some influence can at least be brought to bear in the former area. The U.S. and European recognition eagerly sought by Ukraine--the article the , signifying a geographic entity rather than a sovereign state, will disappear with independence--has been made conditional. The West especially wants assurances that minorities will be protected and that arms control treaties signed by the Soviet Union will be respected.
THE RUSSIAN QUESTION: Russians are the largest minority, constituting nearly one-fourth of the republic’s 52 million. There is concern--not least in Moscow--that Ukrainians, who with considerable justice see themselves as the U.S.S.R.’s most exploited colony, could take out centuries of resentment on the Russians in their midst.
There have already been hints from Moscow that Russians in the Ukraine, who this week were made citizens of the Russian Federation, will be under Russia’s protection. The analogy of Serbs living in Croatia, and the brutal war that their presence became the excuse or the occasion for, ominously leaps to mind. Perhaps even more ominous is the status of the nuclear weapons in the Ukraine, among them 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles that presumably are targeted on the United States.
Ukrainian leader Leonid Kravchuk, the favorite in Sunday’s field of presidential candidates, has talked of a system of dual control with Moscow over these weapons. What Ukrainians don’t want is for the weapons to be taken over by their rival, Russia. Washington of course prefers that the ICBMs be safely dismantled. Given the chance of civil strife in the Ukraine or even border conflicts with Russia, here is a matter that cries out for urgent resolution.
THE KIEV QUESTION: Ukrainian independence is likely to put the final nail into the coffin that holds hopes for a new Soviet political confederation. But unless the irrational dogmas of excessive nationalism prevail, Ukrainian independence should not end economic cooperation with Russia and the other republics.
The Ukraine is a major farming and manufacturing center with prospects for significant growth. But for now its trade is interdependent with the other republics. Continuing economic integration in the emerging political climate may not be easy, but it is probably vital to bolster stability. This should be high on the agenda of things that Washington urges on the new government in Kiev.
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