Study Tells a Moving Story of Life in the Big City : Relocation: More San Diegans are seeking less harried lives in places like Oregon and Washington, while those from Los Angeles and Orange counties continue to seek the same in San Diego.
People are moving to San Diego County in droves, escaping the expense and congestion of Los Angeles and Orange counties; but they’re also moving away at a stronger clip than ever, to places even cheaper and less crowded.
Still, San Diego County ranked first among all the counties in the state as the favorite destination for net out-of-state transplants last year, continuing a four-year trend, according to a study done by the state Department of Finance.
The report, based on drivers license address changes, showed that 107,079 drivers moved to San Diego County during the fiscal year 1990-91 from the rest of the state and nation. That number was down from the 120,904 who moved in during 1988-89.
At the same time, the number of San Diegans moving elsewhere has steadily increased. In 1988-89, 77,153 drivers moved out of the county; last year, the number had grown to 90,388.
What this means is that, while the county is still picking up population through migration from elsewhere in the state and nation, it is doing so at a far slower clip.
The survey, which measures so called “net migration”--the number of people who moved in minus the number who moved out--does not include births, deaths or migration to and from other countries.
That net migration to San Diego County was 43,751 in 1988-89; last year, it dropped to 16,691.
Each driver represents about 1 1/2 persons actually moving into the county from other parts of the country, analysts said.
Every county in Southern California, with the exception of Riverside County, participated in San Diego County’s population growth last year, with the largest contributors coming from Los Angeles and Orange counties, the report said.
Meanwhile, San Diegans are leaving for the more rural areas of Sacramento, Humboldt and Shasta Counties, as well as Riverside and San Francisco.
Nationwide, economically depressed areas such as Massachusetts, Michigan, New York and Texas contributed the most to the growth, according to the annual study.
Only nine states have a net gain of San Diegans, with many of them going to Oregon, Washington and Nevada. San Diego County’s net migration outpaced San Francisco’s for people from out of state, 10,484 to 6,796. By contrast, more people are moving out of Los Angeles to other parts of the country than are moving in.
“People are still moving to San Diego, and they are more reluctant to leave when they get there,” said John Malson, research manager for the Department of Finance.
The trend for out-of-staters coming into California has been toward the big cities, including San Diego, Malson said. But the residents of those big cities take a less rosy view of them.
“The people who have been (in California) a while decide it’s not worth it, and they go elsewhere,” Malson said.
Malson pointed out that, although people who move to Los Angeles County are partly balanced out by the number of people who leave, San Diego County is still in a growth mode.
“San Diego still has room for expansion, whereas Los Angeles has very little space to grow,” Malson said.
Riverside County, on the other hand, has lots of space, and people are moving there in hordes, including San Diegans, Malson said. About 2,600 of the increased population in Riverside County last year came from San Diego County, up from a net migration of 474 just five years ago, the report said.
“Our cost of living discourages people from coming, and job creation and stimulation has decreased,” said Frank Panarisi, president of the Construction Industry Federation in San Diego, which represents developers in the area.
Panarisi blamed high taxes and restrictions on commercial, residential and industrial development for creating an environment that makes it difficult for businesses to move here and expand, citing Rohr Industries’ decision last summer to shift its operations out of state.
“There are folks that do want less of an urbanized area, and that’s natural,” Panarisi said, referring to the large numbers of people moving to the likes of Humboldt, Kern, Sonoma and Shasta counties.
But Peter Navarro, chairman of Prevent Los Angelization Now!, a local growth management group, said that it was “silly” to use current statistics showing a declining rate of growth to guess how the area may grow in the future.
“What we have is a very cyclical growth pattern, and we are in the midst of a short down cycle,” Navarro said.
Navarro predicted “a prolonged growth cycle” in San Diego soon after the nationwide recession ends.
“The rate of in-migration will resume at a fairly rapid pace, but probably will not achieve that of the white-hot pace of the 1980s,” Navarro said.
On The Move
Driver’s license address changes reflect a slowing in the migration by residents of other states and counties into San Diego County during the year ended June 30, 1991. Each driver’s license is believed to represent about 1.5 people.
Where They Are Coming From
Top five states with net migration to San Diego County
STATE NET CHANGE Texas 1,660 New York 1,488 Massachusetts 1,369 Michigan 1,116 New Jersey 885
Top five California counties with net migration to San Diego County
STATE NET CHANGE Los Angeles 6,737 Orange 2,402 Ventura 415 San Bernardino 336 Santa Clara 291
Where San Diegans Are Going
Top five states with a net migration from San Diego County
STATE NET CHANGE Washington 1,507 Oregon 1,418 Nevada 1,295 Florida 111 Montana 80
Top five California counties with a net migration from San Diego County
STATE NET CHANGE Riverside 2,620 Sacramento 227 San Francisco 174 Humboldt 165 Shasta 155
Source: State Department of Finance
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