The Philippines : U.S. Overplayed Hand in Bid to Hold Onto Bases

MANILA â€”  Diplomats attending a quiet meeting at the white-columned U.S. Embassy here suddenly burst into applause when White House special negotiator Richard L. Armitage walked in July 17, shortly after finishing 14 months of contentious talks over the future of the giant U.S. Navy base at Subic Bay.

Many in the room knew that Armitage had come prepared to pay Manila $250 million a year for a seven-year lease. Instead, Philippine Foreign Secretary Raul Manglapus had accepted $203 million a year for 10 years. It was a bargain, and the Americans knew it.

“Do they think you muscled them?� asked then-Ambassador Nicholas Platt after the clapping stopped.

“We did muscle them,� the barrel-chested Armitage replied with a grin, according to an official in the room.

That blunt assessment helps explain why the Philippine Senate rejected the treaty in a historic vote Sept. 16. In anguished post-mortems here, U.S. officials now concede that they badly underestimated antipathy to what even supporters called a flawed treaty, vastly overestimated the influence of President Corazon Aquino’s belated support and were roundly outmaneuvered by anti-treaty leaders in the Senate.

Nor is the embarrassment over. The U.S. Embassy supported Aquino’s call for a national referendum to repeal the Senate vote, only to see the president distance herself from the campaign. Moreover, embassy officials and Aquino aides leaked poll results to reporters purporting to show that 68%, 72%, even 81% of the Philippine people were pro-bases. The polls, however, never existed.

“I made the numbers up,� one American now concedes.

With careers threatened over the potential loss of the largest U.S. base in Southeast Asia, it is no wonder the Americans are anxiously watching as the debate rages on here. After all, the same Senate that rejected the treaty now is considering proposals to allow U.S. forces to stay at Subic for anywhere from two to seven years. The embassy hopes for at least four.

“Aquino is trying to push this resolution business as a graceful way out of this impasse,� political scientist Alex Magno said. “Otherwise, there’s no clear way out.�

More surprisingly yet, some influential Filipinos who bitterly opposed the treaty say the Americans should be allowed to stay for free.

“If I had my way,� said Teodoro Locsin Jr., a publisher and adviser to Aquino, “I’d give five years without compensation. It gives us the moral advantage in the relationship. It gives us the moral high ground.�

More likely is a deal to let the Americans stay for a combination of debt relief, development aid, military assistance and, most importantly, a promise to leave behind huge floating drydocks, cranes and other expensive equipment the Americans previously said they will take.

As it is, the embassy estimates it will cost about $250 million to repair Subic to its condition before the June eruption of the Mt. Pinatubo volcano. It would cost even more, however, to close the base. The other major facility, the volcano-crippled Clark Air Base, is scheduled to close Dec. 4.

By all accounts, it was Pinatubo’s devastation that caused Aquino to accept Armitage’s offer in July. She refused to make back-room deals for senators’ votes, however, hoping to pressure them instead with a “people power� rally. And it failed.

“The rally backfired,� a senior diplomat from another country said. “It showed how weak Cory was.�

A Senate-endorsed offer on Subic is now far more likely than a national referendum to repeal the Senate vote.

Although the first signatures for a referendum were collected Thursday at a pep rally in an exclusive Manila tennis club, Aquino’s executive secretary, Franklin Drilon, told reporters she would abandon the effort if an “acceptable compromise� were found.

Wary of appearing to meddle, the embassy is publicly mum on what that compromise might be. “But we won’t and can’t get caught in the Senate deliberations,� one American diplomat said. “Anything we say can and will be used against us.�

The debate has proved a catharsis for the Philippines, which often appears obsessed with America’s colonial legacy. Ironically, most of the anti-treaty senators are U.S.-educated, and several quoted George Washington and other Americans in their anti-treaty speeches. The love-hate relationship is one reason the Senate hasn’t demanded that the Yankees actually go home.

“The most merciful thing Washington could do is announce tomorrow they’re pulling out,� Magno said. “It would make all this academic, and everyone would be relieved. . . . It would put us out of our misery.�