Key Indicators Up in April; 3rd Increase in Row : * Economy: The rise in the government’s main forecasting gauge and an increase in factory orders point toward a recovery from recession soon.

WASHINGTON —  The government’s key economic forecasting gauge climbed in April for the third straight month, providing further evidence that the economy may be heading toward a recovery from recession this summer.

The Commerce Department said its index of leading indicators showed a broad range of gains in April. The index rose by 0.6% after a revised gain of 0.7% in March. In a separate report, the department said factory orders jumped 1.8%, the first rise in six months.

The two reports--along with some other positive economic statistics released this week and a jump in the stock market, including a 27.05 rise Friday to a record high--indicate that the economy may have inched a little closer to a possible recovery, analysts said.

But several economists warned that the timing and strength of an upturn still are uncertain.

The figures “are saying that the economy is approaching a turnaround,” said Robert G. Dederick, chief economist for Northern Trust Co. of Chicago. “But they are not telling us when. They do have a fairly short lead time on recoveries.”

Allen Sinai, chief economist for Boston Co., agreed. “This is very presumptive of recovery--but whether in a month or another five, it does not say,” Sinai said. “I doubt it will have been May, it’s possible for June, but it’s more likely around Labor Day.”

The leading index is designed to foretell economic activity six to nine months in advance. But it has not always been a reliable indicator. For instance, it failed to accurately predict the onset of the current recession last July.

Nonetheless, many analysts took heart in that six of the 11 contributors to the index turned up. One was unchanged.

The biggest source of strength in the leading index was a jump in factory orders for consumer goods, which would bolster production and suggests a comeback in consumer spending. Other positive contributors were a drop in weekly unemployment claims; slower delivery times, indicating a pickup in orders; rising stock prices; a longer workweek, and an increase in building permits, suggesting growth in housing activity.

The biggest negative indicator was a decline in consumer sentiment. It was a reversal from March, when confidence shot up after the end of the Gulf War and accounted for two-thirds of that month’s strength. Other negatives were lower orders for new plants and equipment, fewer unfilled factory orders and a drop in the money supply.

Prices for raw materials, which tend to rise with demand, were unchanged.

The index’s increase for April was slightly better than had been expected. Economists were also encouraged that the rise was broadly based, reflecting improvements in economic activity as well as in stocks and money supply.

But because the economy is still sending out mixed signals, some analysts concentrated more on the index’s three consecutive months of gains rather than on the behavior of its individual components.

“I don’t believe that much in the leading indicators, but in this case they are probably right,” said David Wyss, an economist for DRI/McGraw-Hill of Lexington, Mass. “We’ve had three healthy increases in a row, coming after a string of negatives.”

Not all the recent economic news has been positive. And economists said such mixed results are typical for this stage of a recession.

For instance, personal income edged up 0.1% in April, but consumer spending fell by the same amount. Building contracts rose 12% in April, but machine tool orders declined. Corporate profits fell 5.6% in the first quarter of this year, although the drop was less than expected.

But despite some cause for optimism, economists generally were cautious about predicting any immediate rebound.

The wisdom of exercising caution in predicting an upturn was reinforced Tuesday, when the Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence, which has soared since the end of the Gulf War, declined during May for the second month in a row.

Even if the recession is coming to an end, analysts concede that none of the past week’s statistics can shed much light on a second important question: how strong will the upturn be?

The so-called consensus forecast--the one accepted by a majority of leading economists--is that the recovery is more likely to be puny than robust--and may well prove to be short-lived.

Index of Leading Indicators

Seasonally adjusted index, 1982 = 100

April, ‘90: 145.2

March, ‘91: 141.4

April, ‘91: 142.2

Source: Commerce Dept.

Factory Orders

Total new orders in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

April, ‘90: 240.3

March, ‘91: 226.4

April, ‘91: 230.5

Source: Commerce Dept.