Japanese Tourism May Be Leveling : Travel: Because of a slowing economy, the number of visitors overseas this summer may not grow from the previous year. That could help boost trade friction.

TOKYO — Japanese tourists, gun-shy of traveling overseas since the Gulf War, may regain their nerve just in time for the peak summer season. But experts say Japan’s slowing economy may signal that the heady travel days of the past are over.

“We are expecting to see a surge in overseas travel from trips that had been put off,” said an official at the Japan Travel Bureau, the nation’s largest travel agency.

“But slower economic growth is a factor that could weigh on travel in the future.”

Any drop in the number of Japanese going abroad threatens to widen Japan’s trade surplus, further inflaming relations with Washington and other major trading partners. The trade gap would widen because Japanese were buying fewer goods and services in other countries.

The travel agency said early confirmation of bookings suggests that travel during the peak summer season, July to August, could rebound from earlier this year.

The bureau estimates that 2 million Japanese will head overseas during the two months, about the same as last year. Many are expected to go to the United States.

But that would mark a sharp leveling off after recent gains. In 1990, the number of tourists heading overseas during the peak summer season jumped 8.4% from the previous year.

Economists are reluctant to draw conclusions, saying the expected rebound in foreign travel may represent a burst of pent-up demand that is unlikely to be sustained.

Many trips that will be taken this summer were planned for early this year but were postponed because of fear of terrorism during the Gulf War.

The Japan Travel Bureau estimates that 20% of all trips were canceled in February and March.

While many economists expected heavy cancelations in February, some were surprised at the number of trips postponed in March, well after the war ended in late February.

When the final figures are tallied, the agency expects that travel abroad during the annual Golden Week holiday--two consecutive long weekends between April 27 and May 6--will have fallen about 14% from last year’s 371,000.

“There has been a real tourism implosion,” said Adrian Tschoegl, economist at SBCI Asia Ltd. in Tokyo.

The travel agency official said travel had been slow to recover because local elections, held in April, distracted many would-be trip-takers.

But Tschoegl and others said Japan’s slowing economic growth, already evident in sluggish sales of cars, art work and other items, was also being reflected in Japanese travel patterns.

Japan’s economic growth slowed to a 2.1% annual rate in the quarter ended in December from 4.6% during the previous three months.

“Declines in real personal income and limits on just how many people can go through local airports are going to cap tourism for at least a year,” said Paul Summerville, economist at Jardine Fleming Securities Ltd.