The Threat of War Raises Some Frightening Questions

As the confrontation in the Persian Gulf moves from the abstract to the all-too-real, here are answers to some frequently asked questions:

Question: How soon could a war actually start?

Answer: The deadline for Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait is midnight EST Tuesday. Administration officials have never said they would attack immediately after that, but President Bush has said that an attack, if it comes, would be “sooner rather than later.�

Q: How many people might die?

A: No one knows. Anyone who claims to know is simply guessing, but a ground assault on the massive fortifications Iraq has built all along the Kuwaiti border could involve thousands of casualties.

Q: How long would a war last?

A: No one knows that either. The answer depends partly on the morale of Iraqi troops. During the war with Iran, some Iraqi units fought fiercely. Others surrendered quickly. Overall, the Iraqi army did well defending its own territory but did far worse in trying to hold captured Iranian territory. How much they would fight to hold Kuwait is a hotly debated issue.

Q: Why is the United States considering a war against Iraq?

A: Oil, aggression and the threat of chemical and nuclear weapons all play a part. Controlling Kuwait already gives Iraq possession of 19.6% of the world’s oil reserves. If that control lasts, Iraq’s successful use of force against one neighbor would probably allow Iraq to intimidate others, giving its leaders huge influence over a vital commodity and considerable power over the world economy. More money flowing into the country from more oil would certainly help Iraq’s quest to develop nuclear weapons. Finally, President Bush and his advisers believe that events taking place now will establish the rules for how the world will conduct its business now that the Cold War is over. If Iraq gets away with aggression in Kuwait, other countries will be tempted to do the same thing, they argue, but if aggression is stopped in the gulf, the world could become a more peaceful place.

Q: Would a war lead to terrorist attacks against Americans?

A: Maybe. Saddam Hussein has threatened terrorist attacks, and the FBI and other security agencies have been on alert for the possibility. Americans overseas, particularly those in the Middle East, are at greatest risk, and the State Department has urged U.S. citizens to avoid travel to countries in that area.

Q: Would Iraq use chemical or nuclear weapons?

A: Iraq has used chemical weapons in the past and might use them again, but American military officials say such weapons are mostly useful against civilians or unprepared infantry and insist that U.S. troops are well-protected. Some experts believe Iraq might have enough nuclear material to make one crude bomb but that the Iraqis probably would not be able to make such a bomb small enough to be carried by an airplane or missile. Iraq might be able to develop an arsenal of several nuclear weapons by the end of the decade if its nuclear program continues, U.S. experts believe.

Q: Will the draft start again?

A: Probably not. Military commanders prefer volunteers. Also, basic training for new draftees would take months, and most U.S. officials are confident the war would be over long before draftees could get to the front. But if the war stalemates, a draft cannot be ruled out.

Q: Are minorities over-represented in the armed forces in the gulf?

A: Somewhat. Minorities make up roughly 26% of the U.S. population but 32% of the military. Black Americans make up 23% of the military, nearly twice their 12% share of the overall population. Blacks, and minorities overall, are particularly heavily represented in the Army, which is likely to suffer the greatest casualties during a war. The Army is 29% black and 38% minority overall. Latinos’ military percentage, however, is only about half their 8% share of the total population.

Q: How much would a war cost?

A: The Bush Administration has refused to give specific numbers, but Pentagon and congressional officials say a full-scale war could cost $1 billion a day or more. Without a war, the Operation Desert Shield deployment cost about $10 billion in 1990 and is expected to cost another $30 billion this year.

Q: Why does it cost so much?

A: Modern high-technology warfare is very expensive. An F-15E fighter plane costs $1,000 an hour to operate. As equipment is destroyed, the cost mounts quickly. One M-1 tank, for example, costs $30 million to $40 million.

Q: Who’s going to pay?

A: U.S. taxpayers will pick up much of the bill, although the Administration has been seeking money from other countries. Saudi Arabia has pledged to pay 40% to 50% of the cost. Other countries so far have pledged $6.7 billion either in cash or goods and services.

Q: What impact would a war have on the economy?

A: No one really knows, but most economists doubt that a short war would have much long-term impact one way or the other. A war would certainly cause oil prices to go up, although the United States and other Western countries have agreed to release oil from strategic reserves to keep prices from rising too quickly. If major oil fields in Saudi Arabia are damaged in a war, the impact could be greater. On the other hand, wars in the past generally have been good for the economy because of increased production.

Q: Would other countries’ soldiers share in the battle?

A: Britain has 35,000 troops that are expected to fight with U.S. soldiers. France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also have troops expected to take part in the battle but, for the most part, would not be on the front lines. American commanders prefer that because they believe having too many different countries participating in the battle could cause massive confusion and loss of life. Syria has troops in the gulf but has indicated they would not attack Iraq. Twenty other countries have small forces in the region, including ships helping to operate the international blockade of Iraq.

Q: Aren’t other countries more dependent on Persian Gulf oil than is the United States?

A: Yes. America imports roughly 15% of its oil from the gulf and another 29% from other parts of the world. Japan, by contrast, imports all of its oil, most of it from the gulf. Europe, except for Britain and Norway, also imports the vast bulk of its oil supplies.

Q: Why do those countries not have more troops in the gulf?

A: Part of the answer is deliberate U.S. policy which, since World War II, has encouraged other countries, particularly Japan, to rely on the United States for defense rather than to build large armies of their own. No other country could possibly muster the sort of force in the gulf that the U.S. has created since the Iraqi invasion.

Q: Why did President Bush put so many U.S. troops into the gulf?

A: Bush has been hoping to use the threat of war to scare Saddam Hussein into leaving Kuwait. But to make the threat believable requires a force that actually could take on Iraq’s army. U.S. commanders believe one of the main lessons of Vietnam was that they need to strike hard with a huge force at the beginning of any conflict to make sure they can bring the war to an end before people at home become impatient.

Q: How would a war be fought?

A: The exact plan, of course, is top secret, but U.S. officials say the most likely course would be a phased attack--massive air strikes to knock out Iraqi communications and air defenses, then intensive bombing and then a ground assault.

Q: Why not just use air power?

A: Some Air Force officials and advocates of air power believe bombing can win a war all by itself, but most top U.S. commanders doubt that and believe eventually they will have to “go in and get them.�

Q: How about nuclear weapons?

A: U.S. nuclear power clearly could wipe out everything of significance in Iraq, but the cost would be millions of innocent civilians killed. And U.S. officials have long believed that the use of nuclear weapons anywhere in the world would cause an intolerable international backlash against the United States.

Q: Why not just kill Saddam Hussein?

A: Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait was not just the product of one man’s evil intentions. Iraq has coveted that territory for decades and there is no reason to think that whoever would take Hussein’s place would be any better for U.S. interests. There is also a U.S. law banning assassinations of foreign leaders. Nonetheless, U.S. officials might try to eliminate Hussein and his top aides in the early phase of a war. Doing so is harder than it seems, however. A U.S. effort to kill Libya’s Moammar Kadafi in 1986 by bombing his compound failed, although a child Kadafi said was an adopted daughter was killed.

Q: Why does Iraq want to control Kuwait?

A: Oil and geography are the two main answers. Iraq claims Kuwait had been pumping more than its share of oil from a field the two countries share. In addition, controlling Kuwait would add greatly to Iraq’s long-term oil reserves and give Iraq leverage over the region’s other oil producers. Further, two coastal islands belonging to Kuwait block entry to Iraq’s major port. Control over those islands would allow Iraq to become a naval power.