Quake Misinformation

Bill Zwirn, our tenant in the brick building that he complains about (“Retailer Says City Neglects Downtown Quake Safety, Dec. 28), is simply misinformed, as are most Venturans, about the “earthquake-proofing” of unreinforced masonry buildings (URMs).

He seems to think reinforcing will save it when the Big One hits. The fact is no kind of building now existing can efficiently be made any safer against a major quake than it already is. The proposed retrofit ordinance for Ventura’s older brick structures aims only at saving lives in a moderate quake--up to 6.8 Richter magnitude, often called “a 100-year return.” Big Ones start at 7.5 magnitude, an increase of over 7 times in energy released. Forget the Big One; the technology just isn’t there.

Venturans should clearly understand that even after all the unwarranted scare tactics, the proposed ordinance addresses but a tiny portion of the earthquake issue. It’s aimed only at privately owned URMs (mostly brick) and only toward their surviving a moderate shake. Now within these limits, just how dangerous are URMs to Californians? The state, which is pressuring the council to pass the ordinance, has never told us.

Our own studies reveal that over 98.5% of all such URMs since 1934 have never had a quake-related fatality. Does it make sense to retrofit all, just to intercept one in 200?

Stated another way, our forthcoming position paper will show that for California, the risk is far less than 1 per 15 million persons, considering that the state says “earthquakes can occur anywhere.”

In other fields, biologists do not worry about annual risks of less than 1 per million. They call it a “zero sum risk” (not worth society’s concern). The same is true for the zealous sponsors of Proposition 65, which gave us the warning signs seen in gas stations and restaurants.

In a URM you are many times safer than what conservative risk standards deem to be the threshold of safety. A Ventura official in your story says we threatened to sue the city. At no time have I or my brother Nick even hinted at such action. We believe the facts will persuade the council that retrofitting’s supposed benefits just aren’t there.

ANDY CHAKIRES

Ventura