Sanctions Have Good Chance of Working, Experts Say : Embargo: They could reduce Iraq’s economy by nearly half, they say. The kicker: It might take 18 months to two years for them to be fully effective.
WASHINGTON — International sanctions against Iraq have an unusually high likelihood of succeeding, but it might take 18 months or two years before they could persuade Saddam Hussein to withdraw from Kuwait, a Washington economic think tank said Thursday.
The Institute for International Economics estimated that the global oil embargo eventually will reduce Iraq’s economy by nearly half--an amount 20 times the average impact of past “successful†embargoes in this century.
The report, prepared by a team that studied 115 other cases of embargoes since World War I, also concluded that eventually Iraq’s civilian population will suffer severe hardships, its industrial base will be crippled and its military capacity will be wrecked.
The conclusions echo those of two former military chiefs--retired Air Force Gen. David C. Jones and retired Adm. William J. Crowe Jr.--and other defense experts who have urged the Bush Administration to avoid rushing prematurely to war in the Persian Gulf.
The report cautions, however, that the definition of “success†has to be somewhat narrow. If the goal remains the withdrawal of Iraq from Kuwait and the restoration of the Kuwaiti government, then sanctions will eventually prevail, the report said.
Depending on circumstances, however, sanctions might have to be paired with some concessions to Hussein, such as loan forgiveness by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and greater access to Persian Gulf waters, said the institute, which is headed by C. Fred Bergsten, a Treasury official during the Carter Administration.
The report warned that more ambitious demands--such as payment of reparations, retribution for war crimes, the overthrow of Hussein or the eradication of his nuclear and chemical weapons programs--could not be achieved through sanctions.
At the same time, Bergsten and the authors of the report--Georgetown University economics professor Gary C. Hufbauer and institute trade specialists Jeffrey J. Schott and Kimberley Ann Elliott--said that they do not rule out the threat of military action as a way to enhance the sanctions.
The sanctions against Iraq are almost unique in this century in being virtually airtight, they pointed out. Also, the U.S.-led military coalition in Saudi Arabia poses a credible threat of military action should the sanctions eventually fail.
“The cooperation is unprecedented,†said Elliott, declaring that there has been virtually zero leakage through the international embargo on Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil. The report estimates that the ultimate cost to Iraq would amount to 48% of its gross national product.
“This is the most effective alliance (in an international sanction) mounted in this century,†added Hufbauer, who pointed out that an isolated Iraq has no credible ally, or “black knight†capable of mounting an effective breach of the embargo.
“If war is the only alternative to maintaining the sanctions,†Bergsten said, “then the sanctions seem more likely to work. The conventional view that time is on Hussein’s side is, in our view, not correct.â€
Explained Bergsten at another point: “If you talk about political pressures working against Bush or against the coalition, I’d ask: ‘Compared with what’? If the alternative is tens of thousands of casualties, then the chances of keeping the sanctions in place are much higher.â€
By that logic, Hufbauer added, Bush’s controversial recent decision to double the deployed U.S. forces over the next few months should have the short-term value of making the military alternative still more credible and therefore more effective.
The group was unanimous in warning that the sanctions process, even under these uniquely favorable conditions, would take at least a year, more likely 18 months to two years.
“Sanctions are not surgical,†said Schott. “Rather, their effect is corrosive, over time. It takes time for sanctions to reach a level of intensity, and then they have to be maintained at that level before they can work.â€
Hufbauer estimated that the standard of living of the average Iraqi has already declined by 10%--a far more drastic impact than U.S. citizens feel in most recessions, when a contraction of 2.5% is more usual.
Typically, Hufbauer said, the sanctions should be felt most widely in three areas crucial not only to industry and national output but also to military capability: transportation, electrical utilities and telecommunications.
Sign up for Essential California
The most important California stories and recommendations in your inbox every morning.
You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.
