Prop. 128 Favored by 2-1 Margin in O.C., Poll Shows

A new poll of Orange County voters shows that they favor Proposition 128, the Big Green initiative, by more than a 2-to-1 margin, a much broader base of support than among voters statewide.

Mark Baldassare, a UC Irvine professor of social ecology who authored the survey, said that 58% of Orange County voters said they would vote for Proposition 128, 27% said they opposed it and 15% were undecided.

A Los Angeles Times poll taken late last month showed voters statewide favored the measure 44% to 42%, with 14% undecided.

Baldassare said he believes the strong local support for Proposition 128 shows a population fed up with air pollution and shaken by the 394,000-gallon oil spill in Huntington Beach on Feb. 7, which tarnished miles of Orange County coastline.

“This has been a year of unprecedented concern about the environment,� Baldassare said. “What we have here is an electorate very interested in environmental issues close to home. There was the oil spill, and people are also hearing an awful lot about the bad quality of the air. It bothers them.�

The survey polled 1,016 adult residents by telephone from Sept. 5 to Sept. 21. Of those surveyed, 833 were registered voters who were asked questions about initiatives on the Nov. 6 ballot, including Proposition 128. The margin of error for the sample of voters is plus or minus 3%.

Baldassare said he would not be surprised if local support for Proposition 128 declines when Orange County voters, who have repeatedly spurned ballot measures that would have raised taxes or imposed higher fees, learn more about how it will affect their pocketbooks.

“You have two very strong competing forces here: the concern about the environment and Orange County’s historically deep resistance to taxes and higher spending,� he said.

Local support for the proposition on Election Day may also be weakened by voting patterns that traditionally find higher turnout among older voters than among younger ones, Baldassare said. His survey showed that only 38% of those 55 and older supported Proposition 128, while support increased to 58% among those 35 to 54 and 73% among those 18 to 34.

The Times Poll from Sept. 20 to 25 showed that support for Proposition 128 was suffering because of the negative public image of its sponsor, liberal Assemblyman Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica). Baldassare said respondents were not asked about Hayden or his association with the measure.

Respondents in the Orange County poll were asked: “If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 128, called by some the Big Green Initiative, which would include provisions to regulate and phase out some pesticides, phase out chemicals that may deplete the Earth’s ozone layer, require reduced emissions of gases contributing to global warming, limit oil drilling off the California coast and require oil spill prevention plans, create the elected office of environmental advocate and authorize $300 million in bonds to purchase ancient Redwood forests?�

Proposition 128 drew solid majority support from both sexes in Orange County, although women backed it by a bigger margin than men, with 63% of women and 51% of men supporting it. In The Times statewide poll, men opposed Big Green by a gap of 10 percentage points.

The measure found stronger support within political parties locally than statewide. In Orange County, Democrats supported it by a 4-to-1 margin (68% in favor, 16% opposed and 16% undecided), compared with 2-to-1 statewide. Republicans back it locally (52% in favor, 33% opposed and 15% undecided), but oppose it by more than a 2-to-1 margin statewide.