Leading Indicator Index Rises 0.1% for November : Economy: The slight rise in the chief gauge of future economic activity does little to ease fears of an impending recession.

WASHINGTON —  The government said Friday that its chief barometer of future economic activity edged up 0.1% in November, a tiny increase seen by many analysts as evidence that growth in 1990 will be modest at best.

The Commerce Department said the small rise in its index of leading economic indicators followed a 0.3% decline in October, a figure that had originally been reported as a somewhat larger 0.4% drop.

For most of the year, the leading index has been giving signals that the U.S. economy was headed for a rather dramatic slowdown in growth, and analysts said the weak November showing did not change that picture.

“The message is no growth and flirtation with a recession as we enter the 1990s,” said Allen Sinai, chief economist of Boston Co.

The economy, as measured by the gross national product, grew at an annual rate of just over 3% through the first nine months of this year.

But a variety of factors, including a steep drop in auto sales, the San Francisco earthquake and Hurricane Hugo, are expected to depress economic activity significantly in the current October-December quarter.

Sinai is among a minority of economists who believe growth will be negative in the fourth quarter and the first three months of 1990 as the country suffers through what he says will be a mild recession.

But less pessimistic forecasters are calling for weak growth in both quarters and no recession as the current recovery from the 1981-82 recession chugs into its eighth year, a peacetime record.

To bolster their view, they point out that although the leading index has declined in five of the last 11 months, it has not fallen for three consecutive months, the traditional, though not infallible, signal of an impending downturn.

“After a weak start, we expect 1990 to pick up some strength during the course of the year,” said David Wyss, senior financial economist for DRI-McGraw Hill Inc., a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm.

He predicted that GNP growth in the current quarter would register an anemic 0.5% annual rate but would improve modestly in coming quarters. For all of 1990, he forecast that the GNP would expand by 1.6%, just about half of the growth this year.

That would be bad news for the Bush Administration, which is counting on much stronger growth next year to bring in enough revenues to reduce the deficit without requiring a tax increase. The Administration is expected to unveil its $1.2-trillion budget proposal on Jan. 22.

The 0.1% rise in the leading index in November was led by a strong jump in orders for consumer goods.

The other four indicators providing strength were a drop in weekly unemployment claims, an increase in plant and equipment orders, a rise in the money supply and an increase in the backlog of manufacturers’ unfilled orders.

Six other indicators acted as a drag on the index last month, with the biggest negative coming from a drop in the price of raw materials. While such a decrease is considered good news for inflation prospects, it is counted as a negative in the index because it also can reflect declining demand.

Other negative factors were a decline in stock prices, a drop in consumer confidence, a decline in the average manufacturing work week, a decline in building permits and a speedup in business delivery times.

The various changes left the index at 144.7% of its 1982 base of 100.