THE MALTA SUMMIT : Tariff Group Will Defer Soviet Bid : Trade: President Bush supports observer status for Moscow in GATT. But consultations could delay action.
GENEVA — The Soviet Union’s request for observer status in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade probably will not be formally considered until some time next year, despite President Bush’s announcement at the Malta summit of U.S. support for the move, international trade officials said Sunday.
Although the Geneva-based organization technically could have approved the Soviet application at its annual meeting, which begins today, GATT officials say the request most likely will go through normal channels, which includes several months of consultations with representatives of GATT’s 97 member countries.
While the process could be speeded up if Bush decides to press more rapidly in the wake of this past weekend’s summit, both U.S. and GATT officials say the issue most likely will be brought up at a meeting of the policy-making GATT Council sometime next summer.
Even then, however, the Soviet Union might have to content itself with observer status for several years, as is traditional in the case of new applicants. Full-fledged membership for Moscow in GATT--the organization that administers world trading rules and tariff structures--could be as far off as the mid-1990s.
There had been some speculation that the request might be considered at today’s meeting. The session is expected to be a routine one, and most of the 97 delegations are considered likely to support the spirit of the superpower detente.
Nevertheless, the endorsement of the Soviet application by Bush marked a reversal of previous U.S. policy on the issue. Washington had insisted before that the Soviets were not ready for membership in GATT because their economy was not based on market prices--the economic system on which GATT regulations and enforcement efforts are founded.
But Bush apparently changed his mind partly to reward the Soviet Union for the efforts of President Mikhail S. Gorbachev to ease political and economic constraints on East European countries as part of his perestroika plan, under which the Soviets are trying to move toward a more market-oriented economic system.
Bush also indicated that the United States would support other efforts to enable the Soviet Union to participate in the global trade and monetary system. This would take place through increased foreign investment by American businesses, restoration of most-favored-nation trade status that Moscow lost in 1974 over the Jewish emigration issue and--eventually--possibly even membership in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Bush did not specifically mention the IMF and World Bank in his news conference Sunday, and the Soviets have not formally sought to join either body. However, the President said broadly that he would try to help the Soviet Union “seek common ground in these multilateral organizations.â€
As late as last month, U.S. officials had insisted that Washington was not about to flip-flop on the issue of whether to back the Soviet application to seek observer status in GATT. However, the Administration appeared to some to take a softer tone on eventual GATT membership by Moscow.
What observer status would grant the Kremlin is the ability to attend GATT meetings, speak, and consult with GATT officials, but not to have a vote in formal decision-making. Officials said Moscow will not be taking part in the current Uruguay Round talks on global trade liberalization, which is scheduled to formally close at the end of next year.
U.S. and Soviet officials already are working on a series of other measures designed to normalize their trade relations--steps that are expected to lead to a White House decision in a few weeks to restore trade benefits to the Soviet Union that were revoked in 1974 over a dispute involving emigration of dissidents. Bush said a U.S. announcement restoring those benefits could come as early as the next U.S.-Soviet summit, in June.
Last month, a U.S.-Soviet negotiating team agreed to begin exploratory talks on drafting a new U.S.-Soviet trade accord, a first step toward restoring so-called “most-favored-nation†status. They also announced the start of new talks on bilateral tax and investment treaties.
Granting GATT observer status will be easy technically, but unusual. Ironically, the number of applications for such status that have been approved in recent years has been minimal.
In 1986, the United States and the European Economic Community served notice that they both would oppose any further applications--partly to pressure from some developing countries that were listed as observers to formally join before the beginning of the Uruguay Round at Punta del Este later that year.
Observer status traditionally has been seen as a sort of candidacy, in preparation for eventual full membership in GATT. China was granted observer status in 1986, but its once-steady move toward full membership has been put on hold in the wake of the Tian An Men Square bloodshed last summer.
A GATT working group is scheduled to hold another routine meeting next week on China’s status, but is not likely to make any decisions. At U.S. insistence, relations with China have been kept at the technical level, not involving Cabinet ministers.
The Soviet Union has been actively pressing for observer status in GATT for the past 3 1/2 years. Last July, Gorbachev wrote Bush and six other Western leaders attending the annual seven-nation economic summit in Paris, asking for their help in making Moscow a part of the international economic system. However, he received no firm reply.
BACKGROUND The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade--GATT--was established by the United Nations in January, 1948, to administer world trading rules and tariff structures. Based in Geneva, GATT has 97 members. The organization’s main thrust has been to promote the expansion of international trade by reducing tariffs through multilateral negotiations. Loosely organized, GATT meets once a year to review progress and decide on new measures. It also holds tariff-negotiating conferences. The eighth conference--the so-called Uruguay Round, which convened in Punta del Este, Uruguay, in 1986--is due to end this year.
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