Fear May Foil Colombia Blitz Despite Gains

BOGOTA, Colombia â€”  The biggest battle ever waged against Colombia’s cocaine barons has undermined their strength in the last week, and authorities are tantalizingly close to victory, according to American and Colombian officers involved in the fight.

But they fear that despite a heavy new infusion of anti-narcotics aid from the United States, the will of Colombia’s political and business power structure may crumble under threats and intimidation by the traffickers, breaking the government’s momentum.

It is an openly declared war between a government and a gang. The cocaine lords, arrogant in their enormous wealth and lethal power, are ruthlessly challenging government authority with terror bombings, assassinations and death threats.

President Virgilio Barco Vargas has risen to the challenge with a blitz against the drug traffickers on a scale never before seen. More than $200 million worth of drug traffickers’ property has been seized in the past week and numerous mid-level gangsters are under arrest, several of them awaiting extradition to the United States.

Still, despite official declarations of confidence, it remains an open question which side will prevail.

A key to victory for the government is the arrest and extradition of at least a dozen top traffickers to American courts, where their corrupting wealth and threats of terror cannot help them, an American official here said. A U.S. list of most-wanted drug kingpins includes Pablo Escobar, Gonzalo Rodriguez Gacha, and Jorge Ochoa, whose combined wealth is estimated at several billion dollars.

Barco used his emergency powers to sign decrees Aug. 18 that permit summary extradition of accused drug traffickers, as well as seizure of their properties and detention of suspects for up to seven days without warrant. But the decrees could collapse under the weight of legal technicalities before the leaders of the cocaine cartels can be captured.

Sees a ‘50-50 Chance’

Justice Minister Monica de Greiff said that there is only a “50-50 chance� that the country’s attorney general and Supreme Court will uphold the constitutionality of the decrees.

The Supreme Court has until late September to rule on the measures but may do so earlier. Thus, capturing and extraditing the major drug barons has become a race against time.

“I’ll be surprised if we find any of them in the next few days,� said an American drug expert who works closely with Colombian authorities. “But I’m confident that if the pressure is kept up, they’ll be found in a matter of weeks or months.�

He cited last week’s seizures of many of the drug barons’ hideaway ranches and estates as a major step in tracking them down. “If Pablo Escobar has 100 ranches, there’s no way we can watch them all, but if we can take away 90 or 95 of them, his choices of sanctuaries diminish significantly,� the official said.

Pressure of Time

But time pressure for extradition, if and when the men are captured, remains a major worry.

Carlos Lemos, Barco’s minister of communications, told reporters that if the Supreme Court strikes down the extradition decree and other emergency measures, “the government will have to accept the decision, because this is a nation of laws.�

Lemos was asked why the government waited until now to take emergency measures. In January, for example, traffickers killed Atty. Gen. Carlos Mauro Hoyos, but authorities made no comparable crackdown.

“At that time the government believed that with the tools at its disposal it could combat the narcotics traffickers,� Lemos said. “Now we see that the threat continues, intensifies, and much more drastic measures are needed.�

In a televised speech Friday night, Barco underlined his determination to wage all-out war on drug trafficking.

‘Go to Any Extent’

“There is something that the enemies of Colombia should understand clearly,� he warned. “I am prepared to go to any extent necessary to end this scourge.�

A European diplomat observed that winning the war depends not only on Barco’s resolve but on support from the country’s powerful clase dirigente , the upper-class business and political power structure.

And that power structure has new reasons for fear. In an audacious declaration of war Thursday, traffickers vowed not only to attack government officials but the country’s “oligarchy� as well.

If the traffickers carry out those threats, the European diplomat predicted, Barco will have trouble maintaining the essential support for the war.

“People will begin to say, ‘We can’t control this. Let’s live with it,’ � the diplomat said.

Business Leaders Frightened

Joaquin Gamboa, a hotel manager, said that the country’s business leaders are already terrified by the recent violence of the drug traffickers.

“All of the big businessmen are sending their families out of the country,� Gamboa said.

Juan Tokatlian, a professor of political science at Los Andes University in Bogota, said there is no reason to doubt that the cocaine barons will expand their terror tactics, as demonstrated by the bombing of two political party headquarters Thursday in the city of Medellin.

The professor said he believes that the traffickers’ strategy is to break down public morale to set the stage for negotiations with Barco’s successor, who will be elected in March and take office next August.

‘They Are Going to Escalate’

“They are going to escalate this crazy war even more, and they are going to intimidate and paralyze the society,� Tokatlian predicted.

Then, as they did during a similar crackdown five years ago, the drug lords will attempt to negotiate with the next administration for a “social truce,� he said. “They will say, ‘We don’t want power or a share of power. We want recognition of our legitimacy.’ �

Tokatlian said he did not question Barco’s determination to defeat the traffickers, but he said the president does not have time to win the war before the end of his term, and the next president is more likely to seek an accommodation.

Among numerous presidential hopefuls, the candidate most outspokenly opposed to drug traffickers was Sen. Luis Carlos Galan. He was assassinated at a campaign rally Aug. 18.

8 More Detained in Killing

Police detained eight more suspects in the killing Saturday, raising to 13 the number being held. Few doubt that the murder was ordered by drug barons, but no one has been formally charged yet.

Barco announced his current drive against traffickers minutes after Galan was shot, but the pertinent emergency decrees had been approved hours before. The government had been under strong pressure to crack down on the drug lords since the killing earlier in the week of an appeals court judge who had ruled in a case against Escobar.

A foreign diplomat said he did not think the killing of Galan--or of the police chief in Medellin earlier the same day or of the judge earlier in that week--was part of a larger strategy by the drug barons. He said it was “an expression of their arrogance.�

But Tokatlian, the political science professor, said he believes it was part of a calculated escalation by the traffickers that began in May when they tried to kill Gen. Miguel Maza Marquez, head of the national investigative police, with a powerful car bomb.

Inquiry Into Death Squads

Maza had been conducting an investigation into links between the drug barons and highly trained right-wing death squads called “paramilitary groups.�

Barco’s government also had been conducting a stepped-up campaign of raids against cocaine laboratories and the traffickers since the beginning of the year.

Terrorism by drug barons used to be “tit-for-tat� assassinations for the purpose of intimidating judges, eliminating zealous officials or retaliating against those who crossed them, Tokatlian said. But he said that the cartel bosses apparently decided they needed to broaden their offensive with the purpose of “weakening the state.�

Some analysts doubt that Barco’s strong reaction will halt the offensive any time soon.

“I think it’s going to get a lot nastier,� said Francisco Santos of the newspaper El Tiempo.

Hope of Success Seen

But some of the workaday officials who have enjoyed unprecedented success against the cartels during the past week said they believe Barco’s strong stand and President Bush’s emergency grant of $65 million in helicopters, weapons and other equipment would stem the terror rather than provoke more of it.

“With this aid we have fortified our justice and intelligence agencies as well as our capabilities in investigation and operations,� said Gen. Maza in a weekend telephone interview. “The state will be fortified. . . . We hope the battle will be short.�