Today’s Stars: Tomorrow’s Legends? : The odds of artists making the Rock Roll Hall of Fame--and how they changed in ’88

“What about me someday?”

That’s a question hundreds of musicians will ask themselves as Dion DiMucci, Otis Redding, the Rolling Stones, the Temptations and Stevie Wonder are inducted during the fourth annual Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ceremonies Wednesday night in New York.

The contributions of those artists have been well documented over the last three decades (see Don Waller’s article, next page). But how do contemporary musicians begin to measure their own chances of someday being inducted? For many, it’s going to be a long time before they get a formal answer.

Under Hall of Fame rules, artists don’t become eligible for induction until 25 years after their recording debut. That means Tracy Chapman--or any other 1988 arrival--won’t be eligible until 2014.

Yet there is a way to weigh the chances of today’s artists. To a remarkably encouraging degree, Hall of Fame judges (mostly recording executives, musicians and critics) have considered artistic rather than simply commercial credentials.

With that guideline in mind, last year Calendar rated, on a scale of 1 (forget it) to 99 (a virtual cinch), future Hall of Fame chances of three dozen pop heroes who have risen to fame in the ‘80s. Now Calendar charts the progress (or lack of it) of most of those artists, plus introduces some newcomers.

The Holdovers:

Bryan Adams--Not much of a buzz, a problem that runs deeper than the fact the Canadian rocker didn’t have an album in 1988. Current Hall of Fame chances: 8%. Down 4% from last year.

Bangles--”In Your Room” is another exquisite single, but the new album hasn’t given the band any momentum, and no new momentum for a band this young means a step back in this balloting. 10%. Down 5%

Pat Benatar--The only way she’s going to make it is if the judges see her as someone who represented a breakthrough for female rockers. The problem is that Joplin and Grace Slick will have been in the Hall for years by the time Benatar becomes eligible, and judges will have rivals Chrissie Hynde and Patti Smith to measure her against. 8%. Down 12%

Bon Jovi--Some optimists thought they saw a touch of originality and heart hidden away in the mega-seller “Slippery When Wet,” but last year’s “New Jersey” underscored the band is little more than calculation and flash. 8%. Down 10%

Eurythmics--Dave Stewart and Annie Lennox made some classy records and video in the early ‘80s, but stagnation seems to have set in and each may find more stimulation in outside projects. 25%. Down 15%

Peter Gabriel--On the opening night of the Amnesty International tour last year, he was even more absorbing on stage than Springsteen or Sting. 90%. Up 10%

Hall & Oates--Out of touch. 12%. Down 13%

Whitney Houston--Here’s a case where sales and raw ability may tempt the judges, but she’s got to challenge herself more to find a personal voice. 20%. Down 2%

Michael Jackson--Once you reach the 99% level, the performer’s chances of induction are so great that there’s little he or she can do to increase or decrease the odds. So, the modest upgrade is simply an acknowledgment of Jackson’s phenomenal “Bad” tour success. 99%. Up 1/4%

Huey Lewis & the News--The best days may be past and the best days were not good enough. 10%. Down 10%

Los Lobos--This may be overstating their odds, but there is a move in rock toward greater ethnic or multicultural emphasis and this excellent band--with its warm musical textures and stirring social consciousness--underscores the value of that direction. 60%. Up 5%

Madonna. Like Michael Jackson, she is as much a cultural symbol as a pop star--someone who defined both an attitude and a style of music. Even without a record, her reputation grows. 85%. Up 5%

George Michael--The huge success didn’t erase the questions over the depth of his talent. Still, anyone who nabs a spot on the Rolling Stone “year-in-review” cover should gain at least 5 percentage points. 30%. Up 5%

Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers--The Traveling Wilburys project showed how comfortably Petty fits with three other Hall of Fame members. 82%. Up 2%

Prince--”Lovesexy” was a commercial disappointment for him, but the music itself was excellent. 99%. Up 1/4%

R.E.M.--The leaders of ‘80s college/alternative rock seems to finally be making the move into the rock mainstream, so everything is falling into place. 65%. Up 4%

Run-D.M.C.--Though a marvelous exercise in rap/rock textures, the trio’s “Tougher Than Leather” album was judged passe by much of the rap audience. If a stronger or more charismatic rap attraction hits big (Public Enemy?), Run-D.M.C. may be lost in the shuffle. 45%. Down 5%

Bruce Springsteen--The divorce hurt the image, but the Amnesty Tour re-emphasized the artistry. 99%. Up 1/4%

Sting--His “They Dance Alone” was perhaps the most moving single moment of the Amnesty International tour last year. 92%. Up 7%

Talking Heads. About time to declare them a cinch. 94%. Up 4%

U2--”Rattle and Hum” may have gotten the most explosive mix of glowing and glowering reviews of any double album by world-class band since “Exile on Main Street,” but you know how history turned out on that debate. 98%. Up 3%

Van Halen--The “Monsters of Rock” tour wasn’t the knockout punch that the band had hoped, but the group’s role as the good-time act of the ‘80s is secure. 65%. Up 5%

New to the List

Anita Baker--Classy, but may be too jazz- or pop-oriented to be considered a force. 12%

Tracy Chapman--The days when someone could guarantee a Hall of Fame position with a single album are probably long past (the Sex Pistols may have been the last act to do it), so even someone with as celebrated a debut as Chapman can only be awarded a 10% chance of eventual success. 10%

Terence Trent D’Arby--It’ll be fascinating to see if his show-stopping talent is able to keep his somewhat self-destructive show-biz instincts in check. 10%

Debbie Gibson--A talented teen, but a l-o-n-g way to go. 5%

Guns N’ Roses--Great start, but the asterisk is a reminder of just how tenuous the band’s position is at this early stage in its career. The next album could double its chances or cut them in half. 15%

Metallica--Who ever thought there’d be a thoughtful metal? 10%

Midnight Oil--The first Australian entry in the Hall? 8%

Pet Shop Boys--Clever, catchy pop and the talent to keep going. 12%

These artists, either through inactivity in 1988 or no dramatic moves, check in with the same score as registered last year: Boy George (5%), Elvis Costello (90%), Duran Duran (5%), Heart (7%), Don Henley (85%), Billy Idol (35%), INXS (10%), Janet Jackson (10%), Billy Joel (70%), John Cougar Mellencamp (65%), Pretenders (85%), Replacements (35%), Lionel Richie (45%), Bob Seger (85%), Tiffany (1%).