Manila Dispute Raises Doubts on U.S. Bases

MANILA — When U.S. and Philippine officials sat down Tuesday for their 18th consecutive week of negotiations on the future of two big military bases here, both sides were optimistic that this would be their final week of talks.

For the Filipinos it was a symbolic time: July 31 is the religious feast day of the Roman Catholic St. Ignatius of Loyola, the patron saint of the Philippine armed forces, and signing of a new, interim bases agreement on that day would have been seen as a good omen.

The Americans were more pragmatic. Budget drafters in the Pentagon and State Department wanted to know as soon as possible how much Philippine aid they will have to request from Congress.

But at the close of the day, both sides were disappointed. The talks broke up in a bitter dispute over how much Washington is willing to pay to keep the bases--Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Base--operating through 1991.

And as a week of disappointments and recriminations comes to an end today, the question is no longer when, but if, an interim base agreement will be signed. The future of the bases is more in doubt today than at any time since the first bilateral agreement was signed four decades ago.

The story behind the breakdown in the negotiations has been held back by both sides. Both are trying to avoid public statements that could prolong the impasse.

But inevitably there have been leaks. And it is now clear, sources close to the situation said Thursday, that Tuesday’s sudden change in mood came when the U.S. team, headed by Ambassador Nicholas Platt, attempted a clever ploy on the compensation issue.

$1 Billion Mentioned

Much of the early optimism had developed in early July, when Secretary of State George P. Shultz visited Manila for two days. He is reported to have suggested in closed-door meetings with Philippine congressional leaders and President Corazon Aquino that $1 billion a year might not be too high a price for using the two bases.

But sources said that when Platt put his formal offer on the table Tuesday, the $1-billion figure he proposed included nearly $500 million in salaries, construction contracts and other indirect benefits that the Filipinos have long regarded as separate from the rent figure.

According to a brochure distributed by the U.S. Embassy, the bases generate about $379 million a year in indirect revenues for the Philippines, and U.S. officials emphasize this in public statements on the bases.

“It was very shrewd on the Americans’ part,” a political analyst said, asking not to be identified by name. “It was a dramatic way for the U.S. ambassador to let it be known just how much these bases mean to the Philippines, and how much it would cost the country if they were gone.

“It’s something the Filipinos like to overlook, and the way he did it, it forces the Philippine government to take a hard look at it.”

Negotiators Angered

But it also angered the Philippine negotiators. Some sources said they were insulted. They said that indirect revenue from the bases has always been considered a given, and even former President Ferdinand E. Marcos kept the figure out of the agreement now in force, which provides for about $180 million a year in U.S. aid to the Philippines.

If there was in fact any anger, or any feeling of having been insulted, Philippine Foreign Secretary Raul Manglapus, who heads the Philippine negotiating team, took pains to conceal it.

At a press conference Wednesday, he said: “What has happened is that we have been inching our way along and it just so happened that yesterday the United States stopped inching.”

Impasse Over Money

He confirmed that the impasse was over money, but he refused to comment on reports in the Philippine press that the United States was offering only half of the $1 billion a year in direct compensation that the Philippine government wants during the remaining three years of the bases agreement.

Although his tone was largely negative, Manglapus tried hard to leave the door open for further negotiations.

“The reason for the suspension,” he said, “is what we term inflexibility on the part of the Americans. And we feel there can be no resumption of the talks unless we feel the position of the Americans is no longer inflexible.”

He said his government is open to “any reasonable proposals,” but when he was asked to define “reasonable,” he replied, “I don’t think I will know myself until the proposal is made.”

Optimism Fades

Asked how long it might take now to get an agreement, Manglapus said: “If you had asked me that question last week, my answer would have been highly optimistic. I can no longer predict . . . how long these talks will last.”

U.S. officials have been more reluctant to discuss the situation, although a statement issued Thursday by the embassy makes it clear that the Americans are not pleased by press reports attributed to Philippine sources.

“We have no comment on press reports on either the compensation figures or statements sourced to the Philippine panel,” an embassy spokeswoman, Mary Carlin-Yates, said. “It is our policy worldwide not to conduct sensitive and important negotiations in the media, a policy we have followed in the current talks and will continue to follow.”

The embassy statement said the American negotiators regard “the current status of the review as a temporary break.”

‘Just Part of the Dance’

At least one Philippine official is not particularly concerned by the suspension of the talks. Ramon Mitra, Speaker of the Philippine House of Representatives, said:

“It’s all just part of the dance.”

Mitra, who in the 1950s was the spokesman for the Foreign Office, had an intimate view of the negotiations that led up to the so-called Bohlen-Serrano agreement of 1959. It is this agreement, still in force, that permits the United States to maintain its bases here.

Mitra was in the room when Charles E. Bohlen, the U.S. ambassador at the time, met with Foreign Secretary Felixberto Serrano to present the “absolutely final” U.S. proposal on the matter.

“I remember distinctly Ambassador Bohlen handing Serrano a document and saying, ‘This is our absolutely final, last offer,’ ” Mitra recalled. He said the document proposed a 99-year agreement, and that Serrano politely but firmly pushed it back.

“At that point,” Mitra went on, “Bohlen smiled, reached into his pocket and pulled out another document. He said, ‘Mr. Secretary, this is our real offer.’ It proposed a 25-year agreement, and, of course, that is the one we are still using today.”

Manglapus was asked whether the present impasse will irreparably harm relations between Washington and Manila.

“The talks aren’t over yet, and it’s still possible an agreement will be reached,” he said. “And, yes, one might say that all is well that ends well.”