Technology to Create Massive Changes in U.S., Study Finds

WASHINGTON — After a four-year study on new technologies, the government has concluded that the next two decades will be a time of massive change in which virtually every U.S. product, service and job will be reshaped.

The study by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment, released Saturday, said Americans in the 21st Century should enjoy longer, more productive lives than any preceding generation.

It said emerging technologies should offer the opportunity to expand educational opportunities, extend life and reduce sickness and make work more rewarding by using machines for tedious, repetitive jobs.

But the study warned that rapid change also threatens to “shake the foundations of the most secure American businesses.

“With each opportunity for progress, there are opportunities for serious misstep,” the study said. “Change can create an America in graceless decline, its living standards falling behind those of other world powers.”

Tax Changes

The study said that for the country to take full advantage of emerging technologies, Congress should consider making fundamental changes in its tax laws and various government regulations.

It urged reducing or abolishing the tax on capital gains and reforming or abolishing the corporate income tax. The report said these taxes reduce needed investment to boost U.S. productivity. The study also said the deduction for housing interest should be limited to a fixed amount.

“We know that we are moving away from an economy heavily dependent on raw materials, where most businesses were isolated from international trade,” project director Henry Kelly said.

As one example of change, the study said the number of lawyers, bankers, scientists and accountants needed to supply Americans with food was now roughly equal to the number of farmers.

In fact, only four out of every 100 jobs in food production is on the farm. More than half of the jobs in food production now are held by sales people, precision craftsmen, managers and data entry clerks.

Foreign Competition

Among the report’s predictions:

--Increased foreign competition was inevitable with the post-World War II recovery of Japan and Western Europe and the emergence of sophisticated production in such places as Korea and Taiwan. Undisputed U.S. economic leadership may be lost, but the change does not necessarily mean that U.S. living standards will decline.

--The U.S. housing industry, to combat the decline in home ownership, may follow the trends of Sweden and Japan, moving toward prefabricated homes built on assembly lines, sold in showrooms and then put together on the site.

--The nation’s educational system is on the brink of major technological changes through the use of computers that will make learning more productive and fun while allowing teachers more time to spend with individual students.

The report, ordered by eight congressional committees, is titled “Technology and the American Economic Transition.”