FEARLESS FORECAST: With “Bad� coming out Monday,...

FEARLESS FORECAST: With “Bad� coming out Monday, Pop Eye thought it would be fun to handicap its sales potential, based on general momentum and industry buzz.

Keep in mind that follow-ups to blockbuster albums seldom do as well as their predecessors. Lionel Richie’s “Dancing on the Ceiling� sold 4 million nationally, compared to 10 million for “Can’t Slow Down.� And that was one of the most successful follow-ups. Prince’s “Around the World in a Day� sold 2 million, compared to 9 million for “Purple Rain.� Fleetwood Mac’s “Tusk� also did 2 million, compared to 12 million for “Rumours.� You get the idea.

But it’s also clear that media reports of a backlash to Jackson were exaggerated. “I Just Can’t Stop Loving You,� the first single from “Bad,� cracked the Top 10 in just three weeks. And by all reports, it’s far from the strongest cut on the album.

So, how well will “Bad� do? Let’s rate the album’s chances of hitting key sales plateaus, using pop song titles to give the odds (figures are for U.S. sales).

20 million--This would tie “Thriller� as the best-selling album of all time. Odds: “That’ll Be the Day.�

11 million-12 million--Would match the success of “Rumours� and the “Saturday Night Fever� sound track. Odds: “Let’s Get Serious.�

9 million-10 million--Would put “Bad� in a league with “Born in the U.S.A.,� “Can’t Slow Down,� “Purple Rain� and Boston’s 1976 debut. Odds: “Easier Said Than Done.�

7 million-8 million--Would match such smash hits as Whitney Houston’s debut, the “Grease� sound track, Bon Jovi’s “Slippery When Wet� and Madonna’s “Like a Virgin.� Odds: “With a Little Luck.�

5 million-6 million--Would tie such albums as Billy Joel’s “The Stranger,� Def Leppard’s “Pyromania,� Jackson’s 1979 hit “Off the Wall� and Madonna’s current “True Blue.� Odds: “Chances Are.�

4 million--Would tie such albums as Richie’s “Dancing on the Ceiling� and kid sister Janet Jackson’s “Control.� Odds: “Worst That Could Happen.�

If “Bad� sells fewer than 4 million copies, any number of song titles would apply. Among them: “Wipe Out,� “Another One Bites the Dust� and--from the hills of Encino--�Help!�