Hearings Spark Surge of Support for Contras : Despite Skepticism, Administration Hopes to Cash In on Shift in Public View on Rebel Aid

By DOYLE McMANUS

Aug. 2, 1987 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

WASHINGTON — Congress’ Iran- contra hearings, which once appeared likely to doom the Reagan Administration’s efforts to win more aid for the Nicaraguan rebels, have instead reopened the long debate over U.S. policy toward Nicaragua and revived the contras’ hopes.

Administration officials, pointing to polls that show a sudden upsurge of public support for the contras, said they believe that President Reagan actually could win a major increase in aid for the rebels in the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1--as much as $300 million, contrasted with $100 million in the current year.

“We have seen support grow dramatically as the American people learn the facts about Nicaragua,” Reagan said last month.

But other officials and key members of Congress believe that the surge of support revealed by the polls may prove short-lived and say that the outcome of the issue is far from assured.

“We don’t have the votes yet, and anybody who says we do is blowing smoke,” a White House aide declared.

‘Going to Be Tough’

“It’s still going to be tough,” Senate Republican leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) warned.

“It’s too early to tell how this is going to turn out,” agreed Senate Majority Leader Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.). “I wouldn’t venture a guess now at all.”

After fired White House aide Lt. Col. Oliver L. North turned his six days of congressional testimony in July into a televised campaign for the contra cause, The Times Poll and several other surveys found a marked increase in public support for aiding the rebels. Earlier polls had shown clear majorities opposed to contra aid, but The Times Poll found the public evenly divided--42% in favor, 42% opposed and 16% undecided.

Those results cheered the Administration and its supporters and threw Democrats on the defensive. But Congress’ most experienced vote-counters doubt that the impact of North’s testimony will last through the August congressional recess and into September, when the debate over next year’s aid is expected to begin in earnest.

‘Didn’t Make New Case’

“Ollie’s a very effective speaker, but he didn’t tell us anything we didn’t know already,” said Rep. Dave McCurdy (D-Okla.), a moderate Democrat who has sought to work out a bipartisan compromise for contra aid in past years. “He didn’t make a new case; he presented an old one. . . . And when you get past the red-eyed appeal and look at the policies and whether they’re capable of succeeding, that brings you back to Earth.”

“The timing is all wrong,” added California Rep. Tony Coelho (D-Merced), the House Democratic whip. “If they had done (a vote) while North was testifying, it might have helped them. . . . But not anymore.”

Later public opinion polls have found that the post-North burst of support for the contras may have largely subsided already. And surveys of the House of Representatives, where contra aid won by the narrow margin of 221 to 209 last year, have turned up a large number of still-uncommitted votes.

For example, Rep. Marilyn Lloyd (D-Tenn.) was one of a handful of Democrats who switched votes last year to approve the aid. This time, an aide said, “she’s debating the whole thing. . . . It’s pretty much up in the air.”

The United States began providing military aid to the contras in 1981, two years after Sandinista guerrillas toppled rightist dictator Anastasio Somoza. Congress halted assistance in 1984 after a public outcry over the CIA mining of three Nicaraguan harbors.

During the two-year aid cutoff, North orchestrated clandestine efforts to keep the contras fighting with money from foreign governments, private citizens and profits from secret U.S. arms sales to Iran. Last year, before it knew of North’s efforts, Congress reversed itself and voted $100 million in governmental assistance for the fiscal year that ends this Sept. 30.

Debate Has Reopened

Now that the $100 million is running out, the long-running debate has reopened--both within the Administration and in Congress--over whether the United States should negotiate toward a peaceful settlement with Nicaragua’s leftist Sandinista regime or push for a contra military victory instead.

Within the Administration, officials are still arguing over how much aid the President should request and what his approach should be. Before North testified, White House officials said the Administration had rejected a proposal by Assistant Secretary of State Elliott Abrams for a $300-million request for the 18 months beginning on Oct. 1. They predicted a $140-million request instead.

But the public reaction to North appears to have reopened the issue, and officials now predict a request in the range of $225 million to $300 million over 18 months--an increase of at least 50% over this year’s spending rate. “Nobody’s talking about anything less than . . . the $200-million range,” said one.

Policy on Negotiations

More troublesome is the issue of the Administration’s policy on negotiations with the Sandinista regime--a question that has been debated and never fully resolved every year since 1981.

Hard-liners within the Administration frequently have resisted proposals for negotiations in Central America as likely to water down U.S. support for the contras. But moderates in both the Administration and Congress have argued that, without a serious attempt at negotiations, the Administration’s policy can never attract bipartisan support.

The Administration met with the Sandinistas for a series of talks in 1984 and 1985 after Congress had cut off CIA funding for the contras. But since 1985 Reagan and Secretary of State George P. Shultz have refused to negotiate directly with the Managua regime and have insisted that the Sandinistas talk with the contras instead, a demand that Managua has rejected.

The Administration also has given rhetorical support to a Central American peace plan proposed by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Sanchez, although it has objected strenuously to several parts of the plan. The Arias plan calls for an immediate end to U.S. aid to the contras and for democratic elections in Nicaragua later; the Administration wants to continue aid to the contras until democratic elections are ensured.

Pitch to Congress

As part of this year’s pitch to Congress for contra aid, the Administration is again debating proposals for a U.S. diplomatic initiative in the area, officials said. The changes may include a softening of the U.S. demand for direct talks between the Sandinistas and the contras and a possible deal with Arias in which the United States would give more vigorous support to his peace plan in exchange for some changes.

“The issues are being discussed,” an Administration official said. “But it isn’t on paper yet.”

McCurdy, the Oklahoma Democrat who voted against aid last year after first trying to put together a bipartisan compromise, said that the Administration’s approach toward negotiations will be the key to swaying the votes of moderate Democrats. “Has the Administration changed its tune?” he asked. “We don’t know yet.”

Another factor, he said, will be whether the Administration actively seeks a bipartisan compromise.

“I think the burden is on the Administration . . . to make up its mind which way it wants to go,” McCurdy said. “If it’s going to be a less confrontational mode--to encourage negotiations--then I’d like to see some proof. If it’s going to be the traditional confrontational role, no thanks.”

Both Approaches

An Administration official said that the White House plans to use both approaches--combining promises of negotiations with warnings of increased Soviet influence in Central America--to pressure Congress toward approving aid.

“There has to be a stick as well as a carrot,” he said. “There has to be some fear involved.”

The Administration already has launched its new funding campaign by appointing a special White House lobbyist on the issue, former Rep. Tom Loeffler (R-Tex.). Loeffler was designated partly because some members of Congress have objected to dealing with Abrams, who admitted lying to the Senate Intelligence Committee last year about foreign aid for the contras.

This week, however, the campaign begins in earnest with a week of lobbying in Washington by the contras’ new six-member leadership. Administration officials hope that the new board of directors, which includes both conservative and moderate rebel figures, will prove more effective--and more united--at wooing congressional factions than earlier editions of the group.

A Full Program

The six directors are scheduled to meet with Shultz on Tuesday and Reagan on Wednesday. In addition, Administration and contra officials have coordinated a full program of lunches, receptions and dinners with members of Congress, private foreign policy organizations and the press.

“You’re going to see all six of them moving in sync,” said one official. “They’re going to look like the chain gang in ‘Take the Money and Run.’ ”

After that, officials said, the Administration plans to bring in its big guns. First will come a speech the week of Aug. 9 by Reagan, who will discuss both the Iran-contra scandal and the debate over aid to the contras. Shultz also plans a speech outlining the Administration’s approach to negotiations in Central America.

“We are going to have a busy August,” a State Department official said. “It’s our chance to take the initiative.”

Times staff writer Josh Getlin contributed to this story.