U.S. Warns Iran on New Missiles : Europe Wary of Military Action in Persian Gulf

VENICE, Italy â€”  President Reagan is expected to come under stiff diplomatic pressure from the other participants in the economic summit opening here today to avoid any overt military action that might heighten tensions in the Persian Gulf.

As a result, the summit is unlikely to produce much more than a statement that will assert in general terms the joint interest of the seven nations represented here--the United States, Britain, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada--in maintaining the freedom of the seas and the flow of oil from the Middle East.

Fear of Hostage Crisis

With newspaper headlines in Europe shouting of Pentagon plans for a possible preemptive air strike against the Chinese-made Silkworm missiles being installed on the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz, there is particular concern on the part of the Europeans that some precipitate action on the part of the United States might lead to another diplomatic hostage crisis in Tehran.

Britain has just withdrawn 10 members of its diplomatic mission in Tehran and has been ordered to remove five more by the Iranian authorities in a diplomatic squabble that began with an Iranian diplomat caught shoplifting in the British city of Manchester.

France on Thursday formally advised all of its citizens in Iran who do not have diplomatic immunity to leave the country, following a roundup in France of 57 Iranians and Arabs on suspicion of terrorist activity.

Although neither of these situations is related to the Persian Gulf, both the British and French governments are concerned that any American escalation of the military tensions in the gulf region could be seized upon by Iran as an excuse for rounding up hostages, triggering a crisis similar to the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979.

Meanwhile, the Iranians have been lobbying with some success against any European support for American suggestions for an increased Western naval presence in the gulf to convoy tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Javad Larijani has just completed visits to Bonn, Rome, Brussels and Vienna. In Rome, he warned that flying the U.S. flag on Kuwaiti tankers “will only increase tension in the area.�

Little Public Comment

European governments have been reluctant to comment publicly on U.S. policy in the gulf, partly to minimize their disagreements and partly out of fear of antagonizing Iran. For example, at the conclusion of the Larijani’s Rome visit, Giulio Andreotti, the foreign minister in Italy’s caretaker government, issued a somewhat ambiguous statement saying that “the less foreign presence in the gulf, the better for all.�

Japan has shown its concern over any action that would look like Western escalation of the situation by announcing that Foreign Minister Tadashi Kuranari is making arrangements to visit both Tehran and Baghdad after the summit here.

Assuming that there is no hitch from the Iranians, Kuranari will go first to Morocco on a long-arranged visit when the summit is over, then to Tehran on his way back to Tokyo.

The Baghdad visit will come later in the summer after a special session of the Japanese Parliament that may determine the future of Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone’s government.

Meanwhile, Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Yuli M. Vorontsov has said in Moscow that although several Kuwaiti tankers will soon be flying Soviet flags, the Soviets do not intend to increase their naval presence in the gulf. That presence now amounts to two small patrol vessels.

The U.S. Navy maintains a flotilla of six ships in the gulf. Britain and France also have ships in the area.

Despite the Iraqi attack on the U.S. frigate Stark and similar attacks on about 355 other ships in the gulf since the outbreak of the war in September, 1980, there has been no basic disruption of the flow of oil to the West. Of the ships hit by either Iraqi or Iranian air strikes or mines, 184 have been tankers, but the world glut of tankers is such that this has made no difference in shipping capacity.

Oil Pipelines

Moreover, Iraq ships all of its oil by pipeline to the Mediterranean and Saudi Arabia has a similar pipeline capacity to the Gulf of Aqaba. About 75% of gulf oil still leaves by tanker through the strait, with 30% going to Japan, 15% to Western Europe and about 6% to the United States.

The attacks on shipping have affected the insurance rates for tankers and other ships, but fewer than 1% of the tankers moving in and out of the gulf have actually been hit.

One way or another, the increased insurance premiums for oil cargoes seem to get passed along to the consumer. But the attrition, such as it has been, has had no perceptible effect on oil prices, which hit their lowest point a year ago when the attacks were heavier than they have been in recent months.