VIEWPOINTS : 1987: Looking Ahead to a Year of Big Changes : Leisure Less Leisurely

In 1987, you’re likely to see big changes in just about everything you buy. If you’re planning a vacation, you’ll notice differences whether you drive or travel by air. If you want to buy a home, you’ll be watching prices and mortgage rates closely. Eating out? You’ll see some unusual, new menus. The worlds of entertainment and retailing are in a state of upheaval. And, with a new tax law, investing may be more tricky than ever.

The Times polled experts in eight fields for their outlook on what 1987 will mean for businesses and consumers.

The past year has been difficult for many in the leisure and entertainment field. Theatrical box office was slightly ahead of an unimpressive 1985 total of $3.7 billion. The growth of pay-cable subscriptions noticeably subsided, and, perhaps most importantly, the previously hot market for syndication of television shows cooled off quickly--which was brought home dramatically late in the year with the bankruptcy petition of Grant Broadcasting, a major operator of independent TV stations. Many entertainment companies derive significant profits from television production and syndication.

However, two important exceptions to the generally lackluster 1986 performance of the industry were to be found at Walt Disney Co. and Paramount, owned by Gulf & Western. Disney’s theme parks registered strong price and attendance gains, and Paramount did exceptionally well at the box office with “Top Gun,� “Crocodile Dundee� and “Star Trek IV.� Important structural changes were also effected by the acquisition of major theater chains by the studios.

The biggest problems for 1987 will include continued pressure on syndication prices and profits as the industry begins a shakeout, and the probable slowing of growth in the home video market, which over the last five years has been booming. Questions raised by the Securities and Exchange Commission’s probe of film accounting by Cannon Group will also persist into the new year, and thereby reflect adversely on all the smaller entertainment stocks.

The toy industry also experienced its share of disappointments during 1986. Hasbro, Coleco, Mattel and, to some extent, Tonka all saw important toy lines fade in popularity. Meanwhile, smaller companies with new products such as infrared guns, talking bears and birds fared considerably better than their larger brethren. In total, toy manufacturer sales probably ended the year flat to down about 3% from 1985.

There is a certain blandness in the 1987 lines of most of the major toy manufacturers, with new themes including holographic figures, emphasis on remote control figures and space cowboys. It appears unlikely that industry sales will be up more than 5% or so during the next year.

Sales of durable leisure-time products--especially of the big-ticket variety, including motorboats and engines--were higher throughout 1986, and it appears that sales of these products benefited from the sharp decrease in the price of oil, and from tax law changes that accelerated purchases near year-end, while sales tax deductibility remained in effect. However, sports such as tennis continued to fade in popularity, and sales of camping products were disappointing in the fourth quarter.

The outlook is for more consolidation of the boating industry in 1987, with both Brunswick and Outboard Marine continuing with their long-term strategic plans, begun in 1986, to combine boat and engine manufacturing.

Last but not least, in the gaming and wagering segment, the aggregate win on lotteries--greatly helped by new spending in California--for the first time surpassed the take in the casinos of Atlantic City and Nevada combined. In 1987, national spending on lotteries will probably approach $14 billion.

Meanwhile, the outlook for 1987 is for more of the same 5% growth that has become typical in Nevada, and perhaps 8% growth in Atlantic City--where there will be an increase of about 30% in casino space as the new Showboat and Taj Mahal (Resorts International) properties open.